Friday, July 31st Recap
RNG vs Dominus (Net: +0.54 units)
Game one was the expected RNG snowball into a win but Dominus actually put up a hell of a fight in game two and definitely should have won if not for back-to-back critical errors that cost them a potential upset win.
We got lucky here. This should have gone to a game three. RNG continue to be a weirdly two-faced team. It’s almost like an NFL team that has a great opening script to the first half and just can’t make adjustments except most of the time the other team doesn’t even really do anything specific to counter what RNG are doing they just completely blank in a game every series. It’s weird.
Vici vs LGD (Net: -11.55 units)
I followed up my biggest single game win the other day with my biggest single game loss of the year here. Not much to say. Vici managed to stabilize in game one and looked like they had turned the corner and outscaled but found a way to lose. That’s what happens when you’re on dragon soul point for the entire game. You have no room for error. Game two was relatively close as well. Credit to LGD in game two for actually having a pretty disciplined close once they had a lead. Uncharacteristic for them.
Sometimes a series doesn’t make any sense or follow the script in any way. If I had to do it again tomorrow I absolutely would no questions asked. I was expecting snowbally games, we got two long, slow ones and missed on just about all of our props AND the side. Brutal but hey what can you do.
LPL Total: -11.01 units
KT Rolster vs T1 (Net: -2.16 units)
T1 started Clozer in this series over Faker. KT had a small lead through most of game one but it was close enough that I can’t really be too annoyed. Game two they built up a solid gold lead by the 15 minute mark and just couldn’t get enough done with it because Clozer made some absolutely disgusting plays on Akali to disrupt a lot of the fights and from there Teddy took over.
Clozer looked really good but KT probably should have taken this second game. They had plenty of scaling and were just outplayed by T1. Good players outplay sometimes it happens. Won’t hold this one against them too much but it was definitely the right call.
Dynamics vs Sandbox (Net: -3.22 units)
Rich and all of Dynamics played probably their worst series of the split here. Rich had his worst game of the season in game one where he must have felt much further behind on Akali than he actually was because he started overplaying like crazy even though Kuzan was utterly destroying Fate as Azir in the Corki matchup. It was like he felt he had to carry despite his mid laner being the most fed person on the map, it was weird. The overplays turned into mistakes and a big lead for Sandbox and the rest was history. Game two they won and although it looked like they were being overcautious, the odd timing of the respawns made it so that, I think, it was actually correct to just play it the way they did. Although I will say giving the elder in the way they did was so bizarre. They started it and it was basically dead but they gave up position and allowed OnFleek to walk in and steal it instead of burning it down and running out bottom side. Game three was a Sandbox snowball.
I don’t know who this was but it wasn’t the Dynamics I’ve been watching all season. Sandbox, other than Fate, played really well in this series and while old man Kuzan tried to school the youngins he couldn’t put them on his back in this one. It’s still tough to give Sandbox too much credit because they easily could have lost game one if Rich didn’t seemingly panic. Weird series overall.
LCK Total: -5.38 units
Excel vs Schalke 04 (Net: -1.26 units)
Misfits vs SK Gaming (Net: no wagers)
MAD Lions vs Origen (Net: -0.5 units)
Vitality vs G2 (Net: +2.0 units)
Fnatic vs Rogue (Net: +1.0 units)
LEC Total: +1.24 units
Liquid vs Dignitas (Net: ???)
TSM vs Evil Geniuses (Net: ???)
Daily Total Net: (pending)
LPL Summer 2020
Week 9 – Day 6
Three game slates for the rest of the season!
Rogue Warriors -256 (-1.5 maps @ +116) vs
LNG Esports +195 (+1.5 maps @ -147, -1.5 @ +416)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -103 / under -125)
RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley
LNG – Flandre, Xx, Maple, Light, Iwandy
Rogue Warriors have only been favored twice this season (vs eStar and Bilibili)
They are 1-1 straight up and against the kill spread.
Kill Totals have gone under in all four games and the underdog covered the kill spread 3 out of 4
LNG are 2-9 straight up, 5-6 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +390)
LNG are 9-17 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.86)
This is an ugly match. Rogue Warriors have looked better of late and LNG remain their very Eeyore-like selves except for a random game once in awhile where it looks like they had their coffee backstage and it kicked in. Which is which is anyone’s guess.
So LNG have been pretty awful but they actually don’t grade out that much worse than Rogue Warrior. As a matter of fact I have them more or less identical when you bring it all down to a single rating number. Weirdly, I think Rogue Warriors will be good for LNG who sometimes struggle to create on their own. Rogue Warriors will be bringing the fight to them and unlike a lot of teams I don’t always trust their execution to be clean. When LNG win it’s through mistakes made by their opponents. LNG know what to do with a lead they just don’t know how to create them on their own. It’s how they beat RNG, took a game off JDG, and all but one or two of their wins this season have come in this fashion.
Even if you consider recent performance this number is just too big. People like the Rogue Warriors way too much because they’re fun to watch but this team isn’t very good. I think LNG probably pegged this as their Super Bowl now that their season is done and I’d expect them to show up for this one. Number is absolutely egregious according to the model. I happen to agree. Bad teams should never be favored by this much over one another. This should be closer to even money.
Odds Weighted: 25.71
Underdog Win: 27.566
“G” Projected Total: 25.464 kills
I’d expect this one to get messy like most RW games even when they lose they throw themselves at their opponents. Feels weird taking an over in an LNG game but I think that’s the play here.
RW game times: 33.32 / 36.12 / 31.7 (average / in wins / in losses)
LNG game times: 31.77 / 33.46 / 31.255 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.545 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.33 minutes
Both of these teams don’t exactly win quickly in the wins they do have. If RW get ahead they’ll inevitably botch something, especially because LNG tend to slow the game to a crawl when behind. If LNG get ahead they’ll be methodical about it. Love the over.
First Blood: RW 53.33% / LNG 40%
First Tower: RW 40% / LNG 30%
First Dragon: RW 53.33% / LNG 36.67%
First Herald: RW 53.33% / LNG 50%
There’s some implied value on RW first dragon based on this delta but I’ll be passing on that given the script I’m anticipating. I do like LNG first tower though at a large +119.
Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ -147 (1.47 units)
Moneyline: LNG +195 (1 unit)
Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +416 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -103 (1.03 units)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 2 -104 (1.04 units)
Prop: Map 1 LNG first tower @ +119 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 LNG first tower @ +119 (1 unit)
EDward Gaming -161 (-1.5 maps @ +182) vs
BiliBili Gaming +126 (+1.5 maps @ -238, -1.5 @ +341)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -123 / +3.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -122 / under -108)
EDG – Xiaoxiang, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko
BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
EDG are 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -370)
EDG are 6-8 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.33)
With Meteor back, BLG are 1-4 straight up, 4-1 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +259)
BLG are 7-6 against the kill spread as underdogs in that span
EDG have been a bit perplexing. After a weird bout with inconsistency in the middle of the season and the substitution and subsequent suspension of Aodi, it appears that they’ve started to piece things back together again taking a game off of FPX and beating Vici in a close 2-1 win. Scout has elevated of late and is playing the best he has all Summer and Xiaoxiang appears to be getting more and more comfortable.
BiliBili have also turned a corner since Meteor returned to the lineup three weeks ago. They were sorely lacking identity and seem to have recaptured that although they still have some of the same issues closing out games without a massive lead.
This is do or die for both of these teams. While it’s unlikely that either will make the playoffs at this point, they would have to win this series to keep the dream alive.
Stylistically I don’t think BiliBili have the edge in this match like they do against some higher rated teams. EDG are a fairly versatile squad capable of playing a little bit of everything and have shown the ability to fight fire with fire early especially with Jiejie in the lineup. On paper these teams look a lot alike, with their strengths lining up across the board but EDG are a good bit better across the board in those categories. EDG do what BiliBili do better than BiliBili does and then some. As frustrating as this team was in the middle of the season they look more like themselves again in their past few series and I think they’re the better team here.
Underdog Win: 23.14
“G” Projected Total: 24.44 kills
These games have a lot of potential to explode. EDG have had a few games this season where they would have covered this on their own which scares me a bit on this total. I’d lean under but I’ll be passing.
EDG game times: 34.34 / 36.12 / 32.96 (average / in wins / in losses)
BLG game times: 32.4 / 32.59 / 32.25 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.37 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.59 minutes
Both of these teams take their sweet time closing and with the season on the line I’d expect them to be careful on top of it (something they usually aren’t). I’ll pass, this number is about right.
First Blood: EDG 62.5% / BLG 50%
First Tower: EDG 50% / BLG 56.25%
First Dragon: EDG 34.375% / BLG 43.75%
First Herald: EDG 56.25% / BLG 50%
Moneyline: EDG -161 (1.61 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +182 (0.5 units)
Invictus Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -172) vs
OMG +479 (+1.5 maps @ +135, -1.5 @ +1000)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -127 / +8.5 @ -102
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +127 / under -167)
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Sora
Invictus are 5-0 straight up, 1-4 against the map spread in their past five appearances as favorites
OMG are 0-5 straight up, 4-1 against the map spread in their past five appearances as underdogs
OMG are 1-9 straight up, 7-3 against the map spread as underdogs this season
Invictus have gotten back to their old ways of dropping a game in each series and it’s been against a mixed bag of easy to mediocre opponents Dominus, BiliBili, eStar, LNG, and RNG. OMG have had a difficult schedule of Suning, Vici, FunPlus, and LGD in their past five as well as eStar.
Just looking at that and the trends doesn’t this look like an obvious OMG +1.5 play? OMG have beaten some good teams too. The thing is, I think Invictus are better than all of those teams by a decent margin and they’re improving as the season goes on. I’ll be going against the trends and taking Invictus to sweep here. I think Invictus are going to completely destroy OMG en route to a top two seed.
Underdog Win: 27.77
“G” Projected Total: 27.47 kills
The model suggests and over here but I can’t help but think we might see a split push from TheShy to dominate against Curse, who has notably been playing well and is clearly the strongest player on OMG right now with Icon taking a huge step backward. Given Invictus’ propensity to play these types of strategies I’ll be staying away from this and leaning under. If this line goes any further I’ll take a taste of the under.
IG game times: 30.96 / 29.94 / 32.91 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 33.31 / 34.38 / 32.65 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.13 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.68 minutes
Invictus have been closing with ridiculous speed and decisiveness when they get a lead but given that we have a juiced 32:00 here I’ll pass.
First Blood: IG 36.84% / OMG 44.12%
First Tower: IG 55.26% / OMG 26.47%
First Dragon: IG 55.26% / OMG 55.88%
First Herald: IG 44.74% / OMG 41.18%
OMG first herald, dragon, and blood are the value plays here if you can get plus money on them. I’d pick just one or two, whichever has the best odds. I’ll be passing as I think IG are going to dominate this from start to finish.
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ -172 (1.72 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 7 – Day 3
SeolHaeOne Prince +864 (+1.5 maps @ +259, -1.5 @ +1209) vs
Gen.G Esports -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -357)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -106 / -10.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +152 / under -200)
SeolHaeOne are awful
Gen.G is really really good
How’s that for trends? For real if you want more specifics just ask me in the Discord or hit me up on Twitter.
This matchup is about as lopsided as you can get. There is almost three orders of magnitude between these two teams. Gen.G should dominate but all of the lines are so far out of whack that’s it tough to really find value in anything on this so I’d throw the -1.5 maps into parlays and call it a day.
Odds Weighted: 21.94
Underdog Win: 21.22
“G” Projected Total: 22.98 kills
I like the over a bit given that Gen.G haven’t been afraid of running the score up.
GenG game times: 31.88 / 30.73 / 34.76 (average / in wins / in losses)
SP game times: 30.72 / 33.46 / 30.2 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.3 minutes
Odds Weighted: 30.82 minutes
Excuse me Mr. Juice…
First Blood: GEG 64.29% / SP 52%
First Tower: GEG 75% / SP 20%
First Dragon: GEG 64.29% / SP 56%
First Herald: GEG 89.28% / SP 24%
You could mess with SeolHae first dragon or blood but I really do think this is just going to be a speed run.
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
DragonX -526 (-1.5 maps @ -139) vs
Afreeca Freecs +357 (+1.5 maps @ +109, -1.5 @ +811)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -123 / under -104)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -125 / +7.5 @ -104
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -143)
DragonX are 9-1 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as favorites
DragonX are 13-12 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.5)
Afreeca are 0-5 straight up, 1-4 against the map spread as underdogs (vs T1, DRX, GEG, DWG)
Afreeca are 2-9 against the kill spread as underdogs
I compared Afreeca to the bully that shoves the smaller kids in a locker but once they meet someone their own size the tables turn. Afreeca have utterly dominated the bottom half of the table and are firmly asserting themselves as The Gatekeepers to the playoffs at this point. “You must be this tall to ride” apparently. DragonX have had a propensity to drop games as favorites this season primarily because they lose to themselves by going a little too far off the deep end in drafts. After the shellacking DAMWON laid on them the other day I don’t know if we’ll see anything too crazy although that hasn’t stopped them before.
The model is suggesting a play on Afreeca here because their numbers are close but as we just discussed, the majority of Afreeca’s numbers are against bottom half teams while DragonX have performed well at all levels. DragonX are the play here and while it sucks that they drop games frequently we’ve seen how Afreeca play against the good teams. They’ve been competitive in roughly 1.5 games.
Odds Weighted: 22.63
Underdog Win: 21.88
“G” Projected Total: 23.05 kills
Lean over but pass.
DRX game times: 31.86 / 31.73 / 32.17 (average / in wins / in losses)
AF game times: 31.1 / 31.7 / 30.29 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.48 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.2 minutes
Like the under but juice not worth it.
First Blood: DRX 51.52% / AF 53.85%
First Tower: DRX 39.39% / AF 42.31%
First Dragon: DRX 42.42% / AF 34.62%
First Herald: DRX 33.33% / AF 46.15%
Similar to the previous series I could see value plays on Afreeca first herald, tower, and first blood. If you can get plus odds on any of them that’s a nice spot to be. I’ll be passing since they’re priced appropriately at my books.
Spread: DragonX -1.5 maps @ -139 (1.39 units)
I’m also going to run a few parlays here.
Parlay (2): IG -1.5 maps + Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +101 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): IG -1.5 maps + DRX-1.5 maps @ +177 (1 unit)
Parlay (2): DRX -1.5 maps + Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +122 (1 unit)
Parlay (3): IG -1.5 maps + DRX-1.5 maps + Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +251 (1 unit)
LEC Summer 2020
Week 7 – Day 2
Rogue -250 vs SK Gaming +190
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -103 / under -127)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -111 / +6.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
SK played a wild one against Misfits yesterday where they almost brought it back from a 10k deficit but couldn’t quite get there. Rogue laid yet another shellacking on someone beating Fnatic soundly. I talked a lot about this on Twitter and in the Discord yesterday but when are people just going to accept that this team is actually really good? They aren’t sexy or “fun” and just because of that they’re not as good as MAD or some of these other teams. Rogue are just a brutally efficient killing machine. While they haven’t really played any off-the-wall picks, they’ve shown the versatility to play a variety of styles and still dominate.
I like SK Gaming but my concern for their schedule and a possible collapse might be coming to fruition here with a loss to Misfits yesterday. They do not face an easy schedule the rest of the way. Regardless of SK’s playoff hopes, they’ll be up for this game and it’s important not to project a narrative onto the game. Rogue are the better team here by quite a bit and I’d expect them to roll.
Moneyline: Rogue -250 (1.25 units)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)
Misfits -132 vs Excel Esports +103
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
I’m a little surprised this hasn’t moved off of the early week line yet with the Misfits win and Excel loss yesterday. I still think these two are fairly even and I’d actually give the edge to Excel overall. Schalke aren’t a free square, we shouldn’t hold it against anyone that they lost to anyone in the LEC in a best of one. Most of these teams are at least competent if not good unlike other leagues where the bottom teams are more questionable.
Roughly even matchup that I still lean Excel in depsite their woes yesterday. Take the plus money.
Moneyline: Excel +103 (1 unit)
Team Vitality +268 vs MAD Lions -370
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -127 / -8.5 @ -102
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5
Time Total: OTB
MAD continue to add to their toolbox breaking out the solo queue special Sona/Lux that we saw Cloud 9 attempt last week. It’s not “new” or “innovative” this is a pick that’s been seen a lot and is just now making it’s professional debut. Ultimately MAD get to do this because they’re an incredibly sound fundamental team.
Look, Vitality aren’t a free square either and I could easily see MAD Lions messing around or taking their foot off the gas now that they’ve locked playoffs. They just strike me as a team with that kind of personality. Meanwhile, Vitality must win out and even then they’d need some help to make playoffs. They still have Rogue on their schedule after this match too. It’s possible but not likely.
I’d be more confident in MAD here if this wasn’t the game after they’ve clinched. Frequently there is a release after that before a team dials back in. I’m going to be taking the Vitality kill spread here even though MAD have been decimating their opponents. I have a feeling this is going to end up being a close one where MAD possibly debut a new pick or something like that. I’m also going to take the over. I don’t think this will be an absolute bloodbath or anything but 23.5 in a MAD game feels low to me and given that I think Vitality have a shot here this could get heated.
Kill Spread: Vitality +8.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)
Origen -204 vs Schalke 04 +156
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -115 / +4.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
Origen looked really good for the majority of the game against MAD Lions and while I question their choice to take Xayah/Rakan immediately after MAD showed the Sona/Lux lane, they had the opportunity to win this game anyway. Origen are being underrated pretty badly it seems. They’ve had their struggles this season with a few “bad” (term is relative) losses but they’ve also taken down some high quality teams. Just like a lot of teams in Europe, don’t look at their win/loss as a definition for whether they’re good or not. Origen might not be what they used to be but this team is still very good.
Schalke continue to improve as the season goes on. They’ve really loosened up and it seems that taking the pressure off has helped them figure out an identity and who they want to be. I like this team and as I’ve mentioned a few times already today, there are no free squares in the LEC but I do think Origen are deserving favorites here and take care of business with their season on the line.
Moneyline: Origen -204 (1.02 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -4.5 @ -115 (0.575 units)
G2 Esports -167 vs Fnatic +129
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5
Time Total: OTB
This might be the weirdest version of the modern classic that we’ve seen. Both teams struggling but also appearing to be trending in the right direction. This line has jumped from -128/+100 earlier in the week because of the wins/losses for each yesterday. By no means do I think Fnatic are a bad team. People are still crucifying them for the dumbest things and the overreaction and recency bias is STRONGLY against this team probably because they have a lot of fans. If anything the value play is on Fnatic here considering the line movement. I’ll be going with G2 here though. It’s a bit of a gut handicap admittedly but just watching them yesterday they literally looked like a new team. I described them like Happy Gilmore learning to finally putt but in G2’s case it’s playing current League of Legends. It’s remarkable really how quickly they’ve gone from looking lost to “getting it” but great teams can do that.
I wouldn’t be surprised by a Fnatic win here and historically this matchup has been competitive and close but something tells me G2 are finally back and I’m going to trust that read. I also like the under quite a bit here. While the previous version of this battle have been complete bloodbaths I’d expect this one to be lower scoring with so much on the line for both teams.
Moneyline: G2 -167 (0.835 units)
Kill Spread: G2 -4.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 8 – Day 2
100 Thieves +159 vs FlyQuest -208
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -109 / under -120)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -120 / -5.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
FlyQuest are 4-3 straight up, 1-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -282 / -6.8)
100T are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +198 / +5.9)
Both of these teams are trending in a positive direction of late after slumps at different parts during the season. To keep things short and sweet here I just think this line is a little too big. 100T are actually pretty good and they’re the kind of team I like as an underdog just in general. Their focus on playing a more uptempo style serves them well and while FlyQuest have been pretty good about shutting that kind of thing down, I do think you’re better off playing that way than not in current LOL. Both teams have similar economy metrics and 100T have been the more potent early game team in general. I like the underdogs quite a bit here.
I’ll also be on 100T first tower here. I’m tempted by the first blood as well at big plus money but FlyQuest have been exceptional with a 71% first blood rate this season.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves +159 (1 unit)
Prop: 100T first tower @ -116 (1.16 units)
Golden Guardians +376 vs Cloud 9 -556
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
Cloud 9 are 10-3 straight up, 8-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -798 / -8.86)
Golden Guardians are 2-5 straight up, 5-2 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +224 / +6.64)
Cloud 9 smashed the last meeting between these two but that was earlier in the season. Golden Guardians were +496 underdogs in that spot. Since then Golden Guardians have been much more consistent but over the course of the season they’ve struggled mightily against the top teams. Against Liquid, TSM, and Cloud 9, they don’t have a single win although they have defeated 100T (2-0) and FlyQuest (1-1).
I don’t really have any questions about Cloud 9 winning this match but I’m looking at the kill spread. As the season has progressed, underdogs have been covering at an improved clip winning 21 out of 32 games against the kill spread in the past five weeks (excluding last night). Typically everyone improves over the season, especially in the Western leagues where the schedule doesn’t bog teams down like it does in the East. I like Golden Guardians to cover here. Cloud 9 will be taking this game seriously in an attempt to secure the #1 seed but I think Golden Guardians will be competitive. Also, again, the low total plus high kill spread play is one of my favorites. I’m also going to take the first blood for GG as well. I know C9 are excellent with a 71% rate but we’re getting a massive number for GG who have a 50% rate. You also never know what you might see with a big underdog and they could bust out something wild and jump out to a lead.
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +8.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)
Prop: Golden Guardians first blood @ +139 (1 unit)
Team Liquid -417 vs Counter Logic Gaming +298
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -108 / +7.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
Liquid are 10-1 straight up, 4-7 against the kill spread as favorites
CLG are 4-7 straight up, 7-4 against the kill spread as underdogs
Liquid continue to improve although last night’s match against Dignitas wasn’t exactly a riveting affair as Dignitas drafted themselves into a hole. See my Twitter rant about poor drafting and coaching staffs that might need to be fired. CLG haven’t been that bad but they’ve been far from good and look like they’re on their way to another bottom three finish at this rate.
It’s a big number in a best of one but Liquid are a pretty fundamentally sound team that are continuing to trend upward. They’re also not the kind of team that mess around. With the #1 seed still in their sights I’d expect them to be giving this their all.
This is another kill spread play. Liquid have absolutely no issue winning a game 10-4 or 7-2 if that’s how it has to happen. There’s a chance we see CLG roll over and die as their season goes down the drain but I think they’ll put up a fight here since they aren’t mathematically eliminated by any means. CLG also haven’t been a team to auto-lose in the draft like Dignitas have a tendency to do on occasion so I expect we’ll see a more competitive match than we did last night. I’m going to pay up to the +8.5 given the KPW/L deltas at play here since it’s weirdly cheap.
Kill Spread (alt): CLG +8.5 kills @ -130 (1.3 units)
Dignitas -125 vs Immortals -101
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -114 / +2.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
Dignitas have not been favored at all this season
Immortals have covered the kill spread as underdogs in all but two games with the academy lineup
One of my favorite scenarios is backing a team after an embarrassing loss. It’s a play I make in traditional sports all the time as well. Dignitas looked defeated and checked-out last night but their draft did them absolutely no favors with no good way to engage, no lanes to gank for a Sett jungle. The coaching staff should be criticized but this was such an obvious blunder that even a bad staff should make the correction and have a better draft.
Not lost in all of this is Immortals who have really fallen back to earth after a great start when the academy roster was initially brought up. This team isn’t very good but Insanity has been putting in a lot of work in the past few weeks despite their losing record.
Going to break my rule of trusting a bottom half team as a favorite given the small number. I actually like Dignitas here but I have a feeling this game is going to be pretty wild. When teams get embarrassed they often overcorrect and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Dignitas come out guns blazing with some super aggressive composition.
Moneyline: Dignitas -125 (1.25 units)
Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -110 (1.65 units)