Friday, October 9th Recap
PSG Talon vs DAMWON Gaming (Net: +0.37 units)
DAMWON didn’t have that clean of an opening in this one but they maintained a small gold advantage with a superior scaling comp and eventually just dominated a few team fights for the win. This wasn’t the best performance but it’s always refreshing to see the pure confidence a team like this has. They never hesitate on anything. Tower siege? No dancing whatsoever just stand in there and get it done. Decide to end the game? Ok we’re in. They have such clear calls at all times. Real joy to watch even when they’re playing more standard compositions.
Rogue vs JDG (Net: -2.53 units)
Rogue had an outstanding draft, got themselves a small early lead with a superior scaling composition that was easy to execute and just proceeded to punt it back to JDG over and over and over again. I’m not going to spend time criticizing the support Orianna build, there’s going to be enough of that and I think it’s obvious it wasn’t the right spot for it but Rogue lost this game before that even mattered and they had it won. Our +9.5 kills was looking golden and with the trades happening across the map over towers was looking like a lock. Instead Rogue just gifted this one and we somehow failed to cover the spread and only got to 12 towers not over the 12.5. They also lost too fast for the drakes to get over. This was looking perfect to the script I’d anticipated and Rogue just threw it all away. Really bad way to go out and end your season. It’s just so weird to me that Larssen who was the hard carry for this team all season long opted to build this way in such a key spot with a lead. Maybe nerves or maybe it was working in practice and they didn’t take the three seconds to assess the game state but man… just brutal.
DAMWON Gaming vs Rogue (Net: -3.6 units)
Rogue opt into the level one lane swap with Sion but it’s sniffed out immediately by Nuguri who doesn’t step into the cheese. DAMWON respond well to all the chaos despite Hans sama picking up a three minute BF sword. A lot of these trades across the map could have been good for Rogue but DAMWON utilized Twisted Fate to stymie the swaps and rotational plays and DAMWON managed to jump out to a 4000+ gold lead at 11 minutes into the game and it was effectively over.
JD Gaming vs PSG Talon (Net: +0.21 units)
Weird start to this one that opened with a bot bush cheese around one minute to get first blood to River. Couple other skirmishes trying to break parity resulted in a 4 kill lead to PSG and Kindred getting 5 marks by the 11 minute mark which is insane. The Galio pick in this one was weird to me. You have longer range, non-committal compositions on both sides and I don’t really know where you’re going to get good ult opportunities besides everyone stepping into Kindred ult, ulting it and then fighting from there but vs a Caitlyn and Syndra that feels real weird.
Lack of engage vs the four ranged team ended up making this look like a terrible loss but the reality is that without a flash taunt or an insane flank JDG had no way to get to anybody relevant on Talon. That first blood and early lead for Talon just made things worse.
Can’t say I expected to cash my under 4.5 dragon and under 11.5 tower tickets because Talon steam rolled this but hey, we’ll take it.
Rogue vs PSG Talon (Net: -2.35 units)
Back-to-back teams with limited or extremely difficult engage options that get behind lost. You simply can’t play these kinds of compositions unless you’re going to have guaranteed prio in neighboring lanes, preferably mid and bottom. If you aren’t the first to an objective to force the enemy to overstep or able to get deep flanking wards you’re just not going to be able to do anything from a neutral or trailing game state. Talon managed to punish this mistake twice. Good on them.
DAMWON Gaming vs JD Gaming (Net: +3.05 units)
This game had a crazy fast pace and it felt a little bit loose from both teams almost like a solo queue game. JDG got Zoom’s Camille ahead early in this one picking up 6 kills in under 18 minutes and got the better of the cross map plays with Twisted Fate. This game was effectively over at 18 minutes with a 5000 gold lead for JDG but DAMWON brought it back by punishing an over step by JDG attempting to take down Nuguri. DAMWON forced a baron fight and picked it up for three, recalled, got a third drake by beating JDG to the punch. Amidst all the chaos in this group DAMWON managed to stack up a cloud soul and claw the gold lead back.
I mentioned earlier about DAMWON’s confidence. Even from a massive deficit they so decisively make the correct calls and fight themselves out of bad situations. It’s uncanny. JDG did the same thing earlier against Rogue too. Hallmark of good teams. It’s not arrogance but this understanding that you have to be decisive and muscle your way into better positions when things go poorly. Both of these teams have that.
I’m not putting too much weight on this game since it had sort of a loose, solo queue feel to it since it didn’t really matter but the fact that JDG needed such a massive gold lead to keep this close might be an indicator that teams are going to have a really really difficult time against DAMWON in a best-of-five series.
Total Net: -4.85 units
Almost all of our losses were from the goose egg of a day Rogue gave us.
Futures Outlook and Plan
With the first round robin done we have a clearer picture of how this may play out in relation to our futures wagers allowing us to set up hedge situations. Below are the liabilities I have in Group C specifically for group betting or group related wagers.
TSM to qualify from Group C @ +300 (1 unit)
TSM to win Group C @ +900 (0.5 units)
Gen.G to win Group C @ +100 (3 units)
I’m fairly bullish on Gen.G for tomorrow and think they’re going to go 3-0. We saw some of the worst play I’ve seen from them all calendar year last week and they still managed to go 2-1 in this group. There is a chance they’re just not in good form for this tournament but I’d bet on a regression to the mean, especially because the Korean teams tend to do significantly better in week two of the group stage after they get some film and experience with the other teams. I still think this team is a clear cut better than everyone else in this group.
TSM looked like their mental game was completely destroyed in week one but with a few days off to reset and a “nothing to lose” mentality I think we will see a better performance from them in week two. After an 0-3 opening week our TSM tickets are likely dead in the water here meaning I can net a maximum of +1.5 units from futures for this group. With that in mind, there’s not a lot of room for dutching but below is my trading plan for tomorrow. Most of it is action free but there are a few situations where I might trade the late games.
- If TSM win the first match against Fnatic and Gen.G win the second match against LGD then Gen.G’s chances of winning this group skyrocket. I could be in a position to back TSM at big plus money if they lose their first and Gen.G win that number could balloon past 300. Might be worth a half unit position on TSM if that happens.
- If Gen.G lose their first game to LGD then I can fade Gen.G against Fnatic, likely at good plus money depending on what Fnatic do.
- Most scenarios don’t offer a lot of wiggle room unless the odds skyrocket.
My handicap and selections of the games below is without consideration for my futures wagers which will be updated above. They’re “pure” handicaps for those that didn’t get involved in futures. They will still count in my spreadsheet totals.
Main Event – Group Stage
The way the double round robin works is each team plays a game on each side of the map. For this reason we know based on the previous game which side teams will be on. Blue side has had a noticeable win rate in this tournament. I went back and looked through each match to see if it was primarily favorites winning on that side and that was in fact the case. TOP, DWG, G2, and Gen.G have each played two games on blue side already. The following are the teams that will be playing two blue side games in the second round robin.
While I think the blue side win rate has been inflated by a handful of the strongest teams in the tournament having a good record there, I do think there is an edge to it on this patch regardless of the win rate. The ability to force a red side Nidalee ban or have to deal with it is very potent. It also forces certain teams like Liquid for example who may not play the Nidalee to be susceptible to stronger blinds like Orianna or take away picks like Graves knowing they won’t pick or ban the Nidalee themselves. The counterargument here is that now that these teams have a feel for each other that more specific game plans like niche counterpicks could be unlocked from red side but I think blue has a decided advantage on this patch in general. I’ll be indicating which team is blue side this time around with a (B).
(B) indicates blue side for this match
We have 36 games under our belts for the group stage here are how favorites, kill spreads, kill totals, time totals, and favorite/underdog team totals are going.
- Favorites are 28-8 outright
- Favorites are 16-20 against the kill spread with 12 of the 20 spread losses in wins
- Kill Totals are an even 18-18 to the over and under with an average total of 25.92 kills
- Time Totals have gone under in 20 out of 36 matches (assuming OTB = 32:00)
- Favorites have covered their team total 50% of the time
- Underdogs have covered their team total just 41.67% of the time
- Favorites have lost just twice on blue side (total record: 16-2, 17-2 if you count SN/G2 tiebreaker)
- Favorites on blue side are 7-11 against the kill spread.
While it’s a small sample size and I don’t tend to put too much weight on these because of that I just thought it’d be interesting to share.
Team Solo Mid +169 vs Fnatic -208 (B)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -104 / -6.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -128 / under -101)
As I mentioned above, TSM looked psychologically shaken in the first week. Even veteran mid laner Bjergsen was overplaying and trying to force things that weren’t there to overcompensate. I can’t imagine this team shows as poorly as they did in week one. They had a few really bad drafts and tilted off in a couple of these games. With nothing to lose at 0-3 I think the decrease in pressure might actually be a good thing for this team.
While Fnatic have looked sharp in this tournament thus far, they’ve also been the beneficiaries of a punted draft by TSM (game was over before it started) and the weird flash-less Rakan in the Gen.G game. Now, credit where it’s due for punishing these mistakes but it’s really tough to get a read on just how good Fnatic look right now. I’m sure those games are more interesting without those things happening. I also don’t think anybody has really punished them that hard by trying to expose Nemesis although Gen.G looked like they had the right idea.
This is a bit of a gut handicap and a leap of faith but even if you don’t think TSM win any games tomorrow they’ll almost definitely be more competent than they were last week, especially in this first match. I’m also not buying Fnatic quite yet although they have looked solid so far. I expect this one to be competitive start-to-finish.
I like the over in both towers and dragons as I typically do in competitive games. I’m also leaning toward the over 33:00 time total but I’m waiting to see if a few shops post a better number. I’ll update this post if there’s any action there. Most of the “first” props are priced accordingly for these the tendencies of these two teams and moneyline price.
Kill Spread: TSM +6.5 kills @ -102 (1.02 units)
Moneyline: TSM +169 (0.5 units)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers destroyed @ +120 (1 unit)(Bet365)
Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons slain @ -127 (1.27 units)
(B) LGD Gaming +146 vs Gen.G -175
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -105 / -4.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -128 / under -101)
I mentioned it in the intro but I think Gen.G regress back to their norm in some capacity here and if that’s the case I have a hard time not seeing them 3-0 tomorrow. They sleepwalked to a 2-1 in week one and I just can’t see them playing that poorly again. LGD have really impressed me though and they’re playing arguably the best they have all calendar year.
The first meeting between these two was looking like a Gen.G blowout before a few throws allowed LGD’s scaling composition back into the game. I don’t see that happening again.
I’m backing Gen.G here. Even in this tournament when they’ve looked terrible relative to their typical performance level, they still have a significantly better economy advantage and if you look at their season long statistics they’re a much stronger team in every aspect than LGD is. My objective/economy model has Gen.G a full order of magnitude stronger as a team and would line this in the -300 range in a median performance for each. I’ll give some respect to LGD and not pound this line because they get blue side and have looked great while Gen.G haven’t in this tournament but there’s just no way I’m not taking Gen.G below -200 here.
Peanut is typically first blood kind but Clid is one of the few people on the planet that can match that. We’re not getting plus money on either side of that unfortunately.
The market I’m looking at is actually the under. While both of these teams have been playing longer games in this tournament and LGD have tended to be a more “slow and steady wins the race” kind of team, I could see this exploding and being a blowout either way with these two junglers. Whichever side you like the under looks great to me. I’ll take the under dragons as well given the snowball potential here.
Moneyline: Gen.G -175 (1.75 units)
Kill Spread: Gen.G -4.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -101 (1.515 units)
Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +137 (1 unit)(Bet365)
(B) Team Solo Mid +275 vs Gen.G -357
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -111 / -8.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Obviously I put all of my pre-game plays out there but this is definitely one to keep an eye on live. If TSM look no better than they did in week one but Gen.G do then you should take this line to pound town for Gen.G. It’s a big kill spread but I’d pay down for something like a -6.5 and just hammer it and tower / dragon unders. Gen.G outclass TSM by a mile at every position and if they’re performing at anywhere remotely close to their normal level this should be a blowout.
As it currently stands I think the play is TSM or nothing. This is a pretty big number in a best-of-one for two teams of this quality and even if I think Gen.G are significantly better, TSM are still capable of punishing a bad draft or a botched early game. Pass or take TSM and wait to see how they look tomorrow.
Depending on how TSM look tomorrow I could see the prop markets for this game being lucrative given the massive moneyline but we’ll take a wait and see approach.
No wagers for now, wait and see for tomorrow first game from each
(B) Fnatic +100 vs LGD Gaming -120
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -108)
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -110 / -2.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -128 / under -101)
I’ve expressed questions about Fnatic and endorsements for LGD already but I do think this game is priced correctly. Given Xiye’s current form I definitely favor LGD in this spot but not enough to lay anything on a side. To me, LGD have fewer pre-game flaws it’s just a matter of if you think they continue to execute at the level they have been in this tournament. Fnatic are more exploitable in draft, LGD are more prone to in-game errors. I tend to lean toward the draft advantage if I trust the team to attack it. Pass for now we’ll see if this moves tomorrow.
Typically when you get two evenly matched teams there is a psychological desire to want to bet the game as if it will be close but it also depends on the quality and types of the teams involved. Elite teams tend to have extremely lopsided games. Teams like LGD and Fnatic who are far from perfect in their execution and that possess some exploitability in the draft are more likely to take part in these back-and-forth contests than say a DAMWON or TOP Esports.
In the six games that had favorite moneylines under -150 so far in the tournament, four of them have gone OVER the time total. LGD also tend to take their time in games even when they get a snowballed lead. Instead of the time total I’m going to be attacking this from a tower total standpoint as it’s a better price for a similar game script and doesn’t require that amount of time to happen if we get a faster paced, heavy trading type of game here.
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers taken @ +120 (1 unit)(Bet365)
(B) LGD Gaming -222 vs Team Solo Mid +180
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 34:00 (over -114 / under -114)
This could potentially be meaningless depending on the outcome of other games but more than likely this will be TSM playing spoiler.
Another that somewhat depends on TSM’s form tomorrow. If this moneyline balloons and brings the kill spread with it I might dabble in TSM +7.5 or 8.5. I’ll probably take a shot with the 6.5 if they look better tomorrow. LGD tend to play closer, lower scoring games. I like the alternative markets on this a lot though.
These are two of the slowest teams in the tournament but 34:00 is pretty high for a metagame where it’s pretty easy to blow out an early lead and snowball four drakes to a win. I love the under here despite the tendencies of these two teams. If TSM look poor tomorrow I like this under even more. I like the under in kill totals as well. TSM aren’t a team that’s going to clown around if they’re eliminated and if they end up in a spoiler position I like this even more. The under makes sense with both these teams, it makes sense given the circumstances potentially surrounding this game, and the total itself is high for these two teams.
Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1.71 units)
Potentially TSM kill spread depending on how they look and if we get a 7.5 or more
UPDATE (7:39am): Adding TSM kill spread here. LGD just got stomped and TSM actually looked competitive against Gen.G before a wild series of plays.
Kill Spread: TSM +7.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)
Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)
Fnatic +158 vs (B) Gen.G -196
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -119 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -105 / -4.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -109)
Gen.G get blue side this time around and given that I think we could see a bit of a positive/negative regression combination for these two teams I like this spot quite a bit. I still think a lot of teams are leaving a lot on the table in regards to how they’re approaching the draft against Fnatic and I’m thinking that may not be the case in the second round robin. I like the cheap Gen.G kill spread here.
Again this is one that you can make adjustments to based on how these teams look in their opening games tomorrow. If Fnatic continue to look sharp and Gen.G don’t then Fnatic are definitely worth a play here but I’m not expecting that.
I like the under in this matchup quite a bit too given Gen.G’s normal tendencies. Fnatic also blew the last match out of the water and I could see that happening again as well.
Kill Spread: Gen.G -4.5 kills @ -123 (1.23 units)
Time Total: UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1.09 units)
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)