Sunday, September 27th Recap
LGD Gaming vs V3 Esports (Net: +0.86 units)
This was looking pretty bad early on for V3 but they managed to keep it somewhat close. Still, it wasn’t enough to overcome the lead that LGD were able to build up in the first 20 minutes of this game. It wasn’t as dominant as a lot of people expected but give credit where it’s due, LGD took care of business here and they were never really in threat of losing this with a superior scaling composition.
Unicorns of Love vs Rainbow7 (Net: -0.48 units)
UOL tried the Skarner counterpick for Evelynn here and I actually liked their team composition quite a bit albeit slightly challenging to execute. UOL were weirdly slow to a few very VERY obvious set plays by Rainbow7 but credit where it’s due, R7 identified a few spots to abuse the weak pre-first back of Cassiopeia by stopping her recall and setting up a dive bottom knowing she couldn’t help. I’m not sure if they just needed to wake up or what but this game just had a really weird vibe to it all around. Both teams sorta telegraphed these super obvious plays and R7 punished while UOL didn’t. Josedeodo had a great Evelynn game separating the backline multiple times he hard carried in this game.
PSG Talon vs V3 Esports (Net: +2.5 units)
This one got out of hand early. It looked close in kills but V3 had to blow so many resources in a few of these early skirmishes that they were just so far down on the map against a superior scaling team. V3 intelligently forced the issue knowing this wasn’t going to get better for them if the game went longer but Talon managed to come out ahead of every single forced fight. Talon had a 3k gold lead at 15 minutes with a better scaling team. Game was essentially over when the first two big plays didn’t work out.
LGD Gaming vs Unicorns of Love (Net: -3.22 units)
This was a bizarre game… Multiple times both teams looked as if they weren’t on the same page but in typical LGD fashion, if you keep the game close to even and focus on objectives you’ll win. UOL took all four dragons and then a baron but somewhat overstayed on a siege as LGD punished them after losing two inhibitors but the damage was done at this point. UOL were a little sloppy on this close, kind of like LGD actually (heh), but the lead was just too much to overcome for LGD.
Daily Total Net: -0.34 units
Futures Results for Group B: +13.4 units (PSG Talon winning +14 – 0.6 units other wagers)
Play-In Stage – Day Four
Current Futures Exposure to this group:
To Win Group A: Liquid +140 (2 units, to win 4.8 units)
To Win Group A: SuperMassive +1400 (0.75 units, to win 11.25 units)
To Win Group A: Legacy Esports +3300 (0.25 units, to win 8.5 units)
So with the way this has played out so far it’s impossible for Legacy, MAD Lions, or INTZ to win the group it has to be one of either Liquid or SuperMassive since Legacy who sit at 1-1, only play SuperMassive and if they were to win that matchup AND Liquid were to beat SuperMassive (which would be needed to get in striking distance) then Liquid would just win the group. So either our SuperMassive or Liquid futures are going to cash here. Given the big difference in potential winnings this allows me to fire heavy on Liquid with insurance. I do think Liquid have looked the cleanest in the group but SuperMassive have also looked quite clean themselves. More on this below.
A reminder, actual tiebreaker matches are played for this with side selection going to the winner of the first head-to-head between the two tiebreaking teams.
Team Liquid -213 vs SuperMassive +172
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -121 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -115 / +6.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -146 / under +110)
Either of these teams could lose to their next opponents and still end up 3-1 if they win this match forcing two 3-1’s and a tiebreaker match. I don’t really see that as a likely possibility so to me, the winner of this match is more than likely going to win this group. As mentioned above, because I have futures exposure to both of these teams and the payoff for a SuperMassive win is significantly larger I’ll be taking a heavy position on Liquid here to secure a profit.
I stand to net +2.8 units on a Liquid group win and net +10.5 units on a SuperMassive win. Factoring in my buy-in for those futures I could split this down the middle or lean one way or the other. I think Liquid are going to take this match down so I’m going to lean more on their side. A 5.325 unit wager on the moneyline here would net me 2.5 units + the 2.8 unit future for a profit of +5.3 units – 0.75u on the SuperMassive future for +4.55 units. If SuperMassive were to win in this situation I’d lose 5.325 + 2 for a total of -7.325u but win 10.5 for a net of +3.175.
As for an actual handicap on this game, I think both of these teams have looked really sharp so far. If I didn’t have a stake in this I’d probably take a small shot on SuperMassive at this number given that I think that while Liquid should be favored, that this is much closer than this line implies.
I’m expecting this to be a closer match and both of these teams prefer to play on the slower end of things. I’m taking the over even with the increased juice on it. I have a hard time seeing either of these teams snowballing particularly hard on one another as they’re both quite adept at minimizing losses when they do get behind.
Hedge on futures: Moneyline: Liquid -213 (5.325 units)
Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)(Nitrogen)
MAD Lions -450 vs Legacy Esports +339
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -106)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -119 / +8.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
While I was the one cautioning people about MAD Lions going into this tournament, it still bums me out to see the young guns struggling. SuperMassive played a hell of a game in the MAD Lions last outing and I don’t really fault them for losing this one, it was just a hell of a game by the Turkish squad. I think Legacy have looked good but not that good. MAD Lions looked shaky against INTZ but Legacy are exactly the kind of team that they’ve thrived against this season.
My only real concern here is that Topoon has been a very strong player over the course of this year and MAD Lions have struggled against elite top laners but they should have a pretty big edge across the rest of the map especially if they can shut down Raes.
MAD Lions will also, crucially, have blue side in this game. While the blue side win rate has been magnified by the uneven side selection in this tournament (because each team gets it twice but against different opponents) it’s been generally accepted that blue is the stronger choice at the moment.
I think MAD will make the adjustments and have a solid plan for this match. They’ve been so good at that over the course of this year so I’m trusting them to do that. However, this line is simply too rich for my taste in a best-of-one so I’m going to take a light position on Legacy. there is a gap in ability here but not by this much.
I’m leaning towards the unders on both kills and game time but I think these numbers are just about right. No play.
Kill Spread: Legacy +9.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)( Bet365)
Moneyline: Legacy +350 (0.5 units)(Bet365)
Team Liquid -466 vs INTZ Esports +349
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -121)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -106 / +9.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -152 / under +115)
INTZ are exactly the kind of team that Liquid preys upon. Liquid are like a lesser version of Griffin from last season. They choke you out until you’re forced to throw a hail mary play and they counterpunch to shut it down. (unless they get TF of course…). INTZ look like they’re flailing forcing plays a lot of the time. It’s a symptom of the region they play in that has constant fighting and nobody saying no to it. A lot of the Brazilian teams lose sight of what’s important amidst the fighting in their games in much the same way the VCS teams have been over the past few years. This is why I’ve been down on them as a region.
If Liquid wasn’t looking in their best form I’d have questions and maybe dabble in INTZ for this one. If Impact was looking more like he did most of the Summer I’d be willing to place a bet on a Tay pop off performance but Impact looks sharp. Liquid should stomp this if they remain disciplined.
I don’t really like either side at the prices in this match but i absolutely love this time total. 30 minutes is an extremely short game time and while Liquid have had a few fast wins in this tournament it’s not typically how they win games. I’ll take a juiced over on the 30 without question here.
Time Total: OVER 30:00 @ -152 (2.313units)(Nitrogen)
Kill Spread: Liquid -8.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)(Bet365)
SuperMassive -256 vs Legacy Esports +204
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -111 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -104 / +7.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -147 / under +111)
Similarly to Liquid, SuperMassive prefer to play a more disciplined and controlled game. Legacy haven’t exactly been jumping out on people in this tournament. I think there’s a pretty big difference in these teams personally. I had high expectations for SuperMassive coming into this tournament and they’ve actually exceeded them. They should roll here. I’m kind of surprised this number isn’t as large as the previous games.
Again I love the over on the time total here. SuperMassive are capable of snowballing a game quickly but much prefer to play it slower and more disciplined dotting all their i’s and crossing their t’s.
Time Total: OVER 31:00 @ -147 (2.205 units)
Kill Spread: SuperMassive -7.5 @ -104 (2.08 units)
I’ll be back tomorrow with a writeup on Tuesday’s first best-of-five elimination match!