Sunday, June 28th Recap

 

 

LNG Esports vs Vici Gaming (Net:  +0.75 units)

Game one was extremely close. Vici navigated some of these fights masterfully abusing Senna but after a really close fight at the fourth dragon, Flandre ended up with a quadra kill and the Volibear was very difficult to kill from that point forward with the team composition that Vici had. This game could have gone either way.

Game two was more convincing from Vici. Game three was back to the tempo-centric style Vici are good at with a pace jungler in Nidalee and three lanes with priority as well as the Kayle to counter Ornn in the top lane to provide some scaling in a worst case scenario. Vici got ahead and stayed ahead in this game, a hallmark of their tempo style.

Vici approached this series with a more 5v5 focused style than we’re used to seeing from them and team fought extremely well in this series which was a great thing to see. They were very disciplined and patient in every fight and showed a good understanding of what really mattered from a macro standpoint. LNG played better than I thought they would in this series but Vici were just better.

JD Gaming vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -2.845 units)

Of course when I finally jump off the RW underdog train that I’ve been on all season they finally get one and don’t throw a lead. JDG also ran the score up in game one ruining any chance at the unders as they covered it by themselves. This series ended up being a sloppy, fun, bloodbath. JDG utterly stomped the two games they won though.

LPL Total: -2.095 units

 

 DragonX vs Afreeca (Net: +0.976 units)

I tweeted a bit about this series but if you didn’t watch it do yourself a favor and go back and watch this with a fine-toothed comb. The team fights were exceptional from both teams. DragonX had two more really weird drafts in this one with the Morgana mid and AP Gragas mid from Chovy and still handled these knife’s edge teamfights with absolute class. This team is ridiculously good. Afreeca were great in this series as well. Keria put in another masterclass. Is there anything this kid can’t do?

T1  vs Sandbox (Net:  +2.709 units)

This series also had some absolutely absurd individual outplays. Effort and Teddy absolutely dominated both games and Ellim has been superb in relief. Faker and Canna had a few monsters too. It was against Sandbox but still. Sandbox looked potentially competitive in the second game of this series but eventually couldn’t hold serve. I still think this team will be ok eventually but unfortunately the LCK is highly competitive and deep so they’ll probably end up in 8-10th.

 

LCK Total: +3.686 units

 

100 Thieves vs Team Solo Mid (Net: -0.61 units)

This game turned into a wild and weird one. TSM busted out the Kalista Blitzcrank after baiting 100T into first picking Varus. It could have gone a lot better than it did. Eventually this game devolved into a weird split push bonanza and honestly a really fun game to watch.

Immortals vs Cloud 9 (Net: +0 units)

We hit our total but none of the alt totals as it landed right on 21. It was looking fast and loose early but the kills stopped coming. C9 smoked them too fast.

Golden Guardians vs FlyQuest (Net: +1.0 unit)

Apparently it was 1-3-1 split push day in the LCS. FlyQuest looked like they had stabalized in this one with their front to back team fighting team with a true ADC Senna+Blitzcrank bottom lane. Ended up just being slightly too far down in towers and GG were able to split the game out for a victory. This was a nice look from GG and I like them playing this get and early lead and push the pace style. It suits them.

Dignitas vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +0.5 units)

This game looked a lot closer than it actually was. EG had superior scaling, the ability to split push AND had three early dragons. If the fourth wasn’t stolen this could have been a 25 minute EG win. Dignitas are still struggling to see the big picture. They can win fights and start games off decently but they’re not thinking about the impact of those situations and why they’re doing them. They need to become a more objective focused team and start playing around lane priority.

 

 

LCS Total: +0.89 units

 

Daily Total Net: -1.205 units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 1

 

Dominus Esports +462 (+1.5 maps @ +134, -1.5 @ +910) vs

EDward Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -172)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -102 / under -128)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +108 / under -141)

Starting Lineups:

DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Mitsuki

EDG – Aodi, Jiejie, Scout, BBD, Meiko

Trends:

Time totals have gone under in 8 out of 11 Dominus games

The favorite has covered the kill spread against Dominus 7 out of 11 games

Time totals have gone over in 5 out of 8 games where EDG was the favorite

EDG are 4-4 against the kill spread as favorites

 

Dominus had one, single dominant game against Suning in their last outing. Meanwhile EDG were challenging TOP Esports even with a substitute ADC. Speaking of that, BBD actually looked solid against TOP. Admittedly, JackeyLove didn’t play his best series, which happens by the way, for those that are relatively new to this space. He’ll get overzealous and lose a fight for his team playing aggressive. Comes with the territory, he used to do it way more frequently back in the Invictus days.

EDG have been a rock solid team regardless of the lineup and their good coaching staff, solid fundamentals, and versatility have allowed them to adapt and remain competitive over the years. This team is not flashy but they’re effective. They’re just good.

EDG outclass Dominus at every single position and are a significantly better team overall. It’s tough not to see them sweeping this series. EDG are only 1-2 ATS as favorites but the 2-0 was against the similarly rated OMG. I’ll be taking EDG to sweep.

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.21

Time-projected: 26.07

Implied-Odds: 25.06

Underdog Win: 25.27

“G” Projected Total: 25.45 kills

My projections have this number more or less dead on. I’d lean to the under given that I think EDG are going to roll this but I’ll pass.

EDG game times: 33.98 / 37.44 / 30.51 (average / in wins / in losses)

DOM game times: 30.11 / 29.95 / 30.12 (average / in wins / in losses)

EDG are averaging 37+ minutes in wins mostly due to a few long games that are outliers. Dominus are averaging 30.12 minutes per loss. I’ll be taking the time under as I think this should be an absolute beating by EDG.

Other Markets:

First Blood: EDG 78.57% / DMO 46.15%

First Tower: EDG 42.85% / DMO 42.85%

EDG first blood would present more value if it wasn’t so juiced. Same the other way. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -172 (1.72 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -141 (1.41 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -143 (1.43 units)

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix -238 (-1.5 maps @ +140) vs

Victory Five +183 (+1.5 maps @ -179, -1.5 @ +433)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111

Time Total: 33:00 (over +164 / under -217)

Starting Lineups:

FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod

 

Prior to their match against RNG, I mentioned the Victory Five are heading into a brutal part of their schedule and that there is a chance they’ll lose all three of these matches. They came out and beat RNG. The series was closer than the box score will indicate but it was, none the less, an impressive showing from V5 who continue to roll regardless of who they’re against.

FunPlus had a “get right” match Saturday morning beating up on eStar.

All of my numbers indicate taking a shot on V5 here but I’ll be on FPX for a few reasons.

First, eStar are a very similar team stylistically to V5. They’re pushing the pace of the game, forcing early action, and demanding constant and appropriate responses from their opposition. FPX just completely whooped on eStar.

Second, FPX looked a lot sharper in their series on Saturday against eStar putting to rest some of the questions we had regarding rust. It’s possible it was an outlier performance but I don’t think so.

Third, FPX have higher caliber players than RNG do, albeit not by much and are one of the best macro teams in the LPL over two years.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.41

Time-projected: 24.59

Implied-Odds: 21.16

Underdog Win: 26.47

“G” Projected Total: 24.02 kills

If the series against eStar was any indication, this could get bloody. My projections have this as an under but I do think it will go the other way and that this number by the books is just about right. I’d lean over but pass for now.

FPX game times: 31.61 / 31.033 / 32.95 (average / in wins / in losses)

V5 game times: 31.64 / 32.61 / 28.95 (average / in wins / in losses)

Both of these teams are capable of playing extremely fast and V5, by design, are trying to end the game quickly anyway. Calling them risk takers would be inaccurate but the nature of this style is that it can lose quickly as well if things don’t open your way. I love the under here even with the insane juice and we’re getting a 33:00.

Other markets:

First Blood: FPX 80% / V5 26.66%

First Tower: FPX 35.71% / V5 64.28%

Tian looked back in form and FPX have always placed a premium on him getting the action going.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix -238 (2.38 units)

Spread: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ +140 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -217 (1.085 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -217 (1.085 units)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first blood @ -135 (0.675 units)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first blood @ -137 (0.685 units)

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