I’ll be updating this post throughout the day on Sunday as the matches finish up.
Sunday June 14th Recap
Suning vs Invictus (Net: +2.01 units)
Suning saved Invictus from themselves in the draft, particularly in game one. They banned Ornn, first picked Ezreal, and ended up blind picking Aatrox. If I’m any team facing IG right now I’m letting them fall into the trap they’ve fallen into over and over again until they show me otherwise but Suning did all the work for them and allowed winning matchups for both solo lanes. Game one was a stomp. Game two probably could have been a Suning win but they forced a baron play and the rest is history.
I’m still reserving judgment on both of these teams.
JDG vs TOP (Net: -2.09 units)
TOP looked really good in this series but the Kayn pick in game one by JDG was really bizarre to me given that Lissandra was already picked and you had an Ornn and knew that Kayle was likely coming. In game two, JDG’s team comp had no way to get to an Ezreal+Yuumi and had limited front line for their Azir to play front-to-back so JackeyLove just popped off.
Side note: I love JackeyLove, he’s a beast, but you should know that any professional player was going to have a field day on Ezreal in that spot so let’s ease off the worship just a bit.
LPL Total: -0.08 units
I’ll be updating LEC and LCS throughout the day on Sunday.
SK Gaming vs MAD Lions (Net: +1.5 units)
Wukong+Senna bot lane is apparently a thing and it was awesome! Realistically MAD just outclassed SK and the Wukong bot threw them, and me, completely off. Interesting game!
Schalke vs Rogue (Net: -0.19 units)
Another Ornn+Aphelios defeat but I thought Rogue had a good team comp to deal with it in this case. Schalke stacked the first three drakes but were never able to secure soul. Aphelios nearly ran away with a few of these fights until Rogue finally bought some healing reduction and then it was over.
Origen vs Misfits (Net: +0.01 units)
This was a really bizarre game. Origen tried to show a different 1-3-1 style look with Nukeduck on Ekko and it was going decently before some really poor macro decision making in the mid-to-late transition around baron and later dragons. Misfits eventually got there. This raised a few flags for me on Origen who are normally so consistent at that phase in the game. It’s the one thing you can rely on them to do well is to almost never screw up those kinds of scenarios. That’s a few so far this season. They’re on alert.
G2 vs Vitality (Net: +0.95 units)
G2 looked like they had a perfect bottom lane wave denial/dive and had effectively taken Comp out of this game but then they immediately took a terrible fight in the mid lane shortly after to feed Comp three kills and suddenly this game swung heavily in Vitality’s favor. This game was over and G2 just got a little overzealous in classic G2 fashion. League of Legends equivalent of Vitality is down and out, threw a hail mary before the half and it connected to get them back into the game.
I could sit here and criticize them but this honestly isn’t surprising. They do this a few times every split whether it’s a trolly draft or just biting off more than they can chew. Sometimes teams punish them for it and the same talks happen “Omg are G2 finally coming back down to earth?” No. It’s one game. Chill. I’ll remind you that G2 lost to Schalke last split too. Don’t forget Perkz lost his father this week and they didn’t have good preparation. They probably still should have won this game if they just recognized Vitality had to take that fight mid and backed off.
We’ll all get rich off the lower ownership next weekend. Don’t overreact to this. Give Vitality credit. This doesn’t move the needle at all for me on G2.
Fnatic vs Excel (Net: +1.0667 units)
Excel actually got off to a decent start in this one before Fnatic just asserted their dominance. Not really much else to say besides Fnatic sort of lost this draft and outplayed it.
LEC Total: +3.2367 units
Cloud 9 vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.5 units)
Cloud 9 are really good… 12k gold lead at 20 minutes? C9 averaged almost +4600 gold differential at 15 this weekend.
Dignitas vs TSM (Net: -1.8 units)
This game was too clean for our over 20.5 to hit. Little salty bout that but Dig showed no fight whatsoever.
Liquid vs Golden Guardians (Net: -2.84 units)
Took a beating on this one missing our total by 2 kills and our spread by a kill (12-6, -6.5 spread, 20.5 total). Golden Guardians actually showed a lot in this game, properly playing the Jayce out, knowing you were on a clock, and pushing the pace. Damonte and Closer are going to be really good together and are exactly what this team needed; an identity.
CLG vs Immortals (Net: +2.36 units)
This game was a sloppy mess from both sides… pretty clear that these are two of the bottom teams in the league at this point.
LCS Total: -0.78 units
Daily Total Net: +2.3767 units
Missed on our three 1.5x weighted wagers in North America and barely missed in the TL game or this would have been a significantly better day. That’s kind of been the story all year, I’ve been hitting on most things and missing on the strong positions. I’ve already condensed my staking so at least they don’t sting so bad but still, a little rough. Profitable day regardless. Onto the next one!
LPL Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 1
Overall LPL Trends:
6 out of 20 matches have gone to a third map
Favorites are 13-7 (11-9 ATS) this season
Favorites are 25-21 against the kill spread
Kill totals have gone UNDER in 25 out of 46 games (last ten 12 out of 21 over)
Time totals have gone UNDER in 30 out of 46 games (last ten 11 out of 21 under)
BiliBili Gaming +203 (+1.5 maps @ -159, -1.5 @ +458) vs
eStar Gaming -270 (-1.5 maps @ +123)
Kill Total: OTB
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -122 / -5.5 @ -108
Time Total: OTB
BLG – Kingen, l3est16, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC
eStar won the first meeting 2-1 on March 21st as -260 favorites
eStar are 2-0 ATS, 2-3 against the kill spread, 3-2 over the kill total, 3-2 under the time total
BLG are 0-2 ATS, 1-3 against the kill spread, 3-1 under the kill total, 3-1 under time total
Something is going on with BiliBili behind the scenes. Their best player and focus of their team identity Meteor (who I like to call “the go get shit done piece”) hasn’t played yet this season and not surprisingly BLG have failed to make any kind of proactive moves. I was fairly bullish on BLG before this season started expecting them to look more like they did in the second half of last season but with these roster moves it just seems like they’ve lost their mojo. eStar, on the other hand, haven’t missed a beat with Fenfen replacing departed star mid laner Cryin.
I’m confident the eStar will take this down it’s just a matter of how. They’ve shown a tendency to get a little overzealous at times. BLG are often reluctant to fight, even more so without Meteor. I could see eStar growing impatient and diving which could lead to a botched closing or an over time total but I think the odds are even more likely that eStar succeed on those plays and just completely run BLG over in this match.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 27.3 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 27.97 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 27.03 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case BLG, 26.86 kills.
I’ll be looking at the unders here assuming these totals are on the higher end. I’m assuming the book will float a 25.5 here. I like the under on 25.5 or higher.
Moneyline: eStar -270 (2.7 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +123 (0.75 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER @ ??? (??? units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER @ ??? (??? units)
Vici Gaming +130 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +336)
vs Team WE -167 (-1.5 maps @ +167)
Kill Total: OTB
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -123 / -4.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
VG – Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
Team WE are 5-3 against the kill spread this season
The kill total has gone under in 6 out of 8 Team WE games
The kill total has gone under in all four Vici games this season
Team WE won the last meeting 2-0 on March 13th as +236 underdogs
Vici got completely dominated by RNG the last time out but did the same to BLG in the match before. Team WE are coming off of a 2-0 against Invictus off the back of Ornn+Aphelios in back-to-back games.
I mentioned on Twitter that I think Team WE are going to have to find a solution to good mid laners playing Syndra against Teacherma. Her ability to facilitate ganks AND maintain lane priority just shuts down his entire playstyle of shove and roam. Forge has only played Syndra once this year (in a win) but has not played it a lot in his career. He prefers to play lanes with kill pressure but I wouldn’t rule out a Syndra pick in this series so keep an eye on it for live wagers.
I’m going to be on Vici here for a few reasons. First, Team WE aren’t going to be handed Ornn+Aphelios by a Kkoma lead team. If anything they’d be the ones to try to get it. Second, is that I think Forge and Aix are underrated and can outplay Beishang and Teacherma. They’re a similarly scrappy duo that loves to play skirmishes and make tempo plays off of lane priority. Third, I have these two teams rated very similarly and play similarly and I would have taken whoever was the plus odds in this spot.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 26.1 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 25.88 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 27.71 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Vici, 28.08 kills.
My totals project fairly high numbers because I’m still weighing some of last season until we get more of a sample from this season but I’d expect the books to float a 25.5 in this spot. I’ll still be on the under. Team WE’s totals have been 28.5, 27.5 and 26.5 so far this season. They’ve gone under in 6 out of 8 games and I expect that to be the case again here. I’ll be on it for half a stake however because I think the mid+jungle duos in this series are very scrappy and could up the pace of this game and create a bloody affair.
Spread: VG +1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)
Moneyline: VG +130 (0.5 units)
Spread: VG -1.5 maps @ +336 (0.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 ??? (waiting for line)
Kill Total: Map 2 ??? (waiting for line)