Sunday, July 5th Recap

 

eStar vs Victory Five (Net: -3.0 units)

There’s something awesome about how simple the game plan is for both of these teams and how they just do the most basic thing in almost every situation. Simplify the plan. V5 saw an advantage to be gained by camping the global, one of the first things you learn about in mid to higher end team play that is somehow sorely forgotten in professional play these days. That’s what happened in game one as Fenfen’s Galio was never really able to get off the ground against Mole’s Zoe. This game was fast paced and action packed and it got a bit bloodier than I thought it would but I should have figured these two teams would throw themselves at each other.

Game two was looking over early as eStar accrued a massive gold lead before a poorly communicated dragon fight led to a big teamfight win by V5 to bring the gold back to even. V5 would then throw back, eStar would then throw back, and V5 eventually won it.

This game two is what concerns me a bit about both of these teams. I appreciate the confidence they show but sometimes you just need to regroup and settle down, communicate/identify your win conditions and reassess mid game instead of just trying to fight your way out of a bad situation. It’s a double edged sword though because that’s also what makes them good at doing it.

This was a fun one that probably should have gone to a third game.

FunPlus vs RNG (Net:  +1.3075 units)

Game one of this series was an absolute slobberknocker! So many close team fights, a few critical errors by both teams but also great recoveries by both. Xiaohu and Lwx both played out of their mind good as carries in this game. Xiaohu made TF look like a team fighting champion in this game as he rarely got to spend time off to his own with all the constant fighting. Just great understanding of wedging a fight, CC’ing the relevant target at that given time. I keep saying it but Xiaohu is playing at an unbelievably high level this season. It’s a bummer for Cryin who is also good but I don’t know how you deny playing Xiaohu right now.

Game two got bloody really quickly and RNG got themselves a huge lead with a superior scaling team fight composition but FPX kept minimizing losses, taking tower gold when it was available to take and kept themselves within a few thousand gold while waiting for Khan’s Fiora to get online. Eventually a baron fight happened and FPX managed to win the 5v5 from a 3000 gold deficit with a Fiora who isn’t a particularly great team fighter. You love to see it. FPX nearly overstepped while sieging but were able to disengage, reset and RNG made a few positioning errors while chasing down that FPX punished and ended the game one.Tian played insanely well on the Graves in this game especially in the late game fights.

Game three looked close for the first 15 minutes before FPX blew open a team fight. They had the Kayle scaling on their side as it was so they probably win this at the pace of the game anyway but this helped them slam the door shut.

Great series. Some throws and poor decisions by both teams but this was a great morning of LPL-style action. Lots of teamfighting!

Go figure the game one went to 43 kills. It’s not like there have been a disproportionate amount of kills in game ones for either of these teams (I looked). It was just dumb luck that we got floated a wrong number. I was about to be really annoyed but then I saw that this bet was actually refunded because of the wrong number. Normally I can’t stand when books do this, it’s really scummy but hey bank error in your favor I suppose! I’ll take that… Overall for this series with the refund

 

LPL Total: -1.6925 units

 

DragonX vs SeolHaeOne (Net: +1.0 units)

DRX played this one about as by the book as you can get. It was kind of refreshing to see them not get cute and do some wild draft stuff. Just Corki+Ezreal with a split pusher and two tanks. Easy. DRX’s execution wasn’t perfect in this series and you could kind of tell they didn’t respect SeolHaeOne with some of their plays but ultimately their overall quality ended up exercising itself. DRX weren’t in any danger of losing either of these games.

Afreeca vs KT Rolster (Net: -6.05 units) *ooof*

I like Karma a lot, I think the champion is really powerful and you can build 1.5 core compositions with it because of the damage she can allow your team to absorb and repositioning value. The thing is, I don’t think Miss Fortune is a carry that utilizes the Karma tools very well and she isn’t a good primary carry compared to some other choices. Her having to park to cast her ultimate doesn’t utilize the repositioning and shielding value from Karma to allow most other carries to play more aggressively and output more damage. This was still a somewhat close game but KT were crippled by their draft.

We got to see the Kiin Urgot in game two but he didn’t really have much of an impact on why Afreeca won this game. KT had a better draft in this game than the first but Afreeca still had the better one. Fly has been playing really well and showed an excellent game on Syndra. Clutch stuns, great zone control, and Mystic/Ben on the Kalista/Taric took over these team fights.

Afreeca are playing really well right now. There were a lot of things KT could have done better in this series but they didn’t play poorly by any means and did a much better job than the box score shows. A few draft adjustments and a little more improvement and this team will be in good shape. Afreeca continue to impress.

From a betting perspective I got crucified in this series. It was a lot of exposure and I was aware of that going in but I’m fairly confident that without that poor game one draft we would have done much better in all angles that we attacked this series. It happens.

LCK Total: -5.05 units

 

Dignitas vs Cloud 9 (Net: +1.07 units)

FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (Net:  +1.045 units)

CLG vs TSM (Net: -0.15 units)

Immortals vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -1.605 units)

 

LCS Total: +0.36 units

This was a wild slate and althought it might not have been the cleanest LOL it was certainly entertaining with a few back and forth slugfests and some split push shenanigans. Definitely worth the watch.

 

Daily Total Net: -6.3825 units

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 1

 

Team WE -667 (-1.5 maps @ -149) vs

Dominus Esports +416 (+1.5 maps @ +117, -1.5 @ +750)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -112 / +7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00

Starting Lineups:

WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui

 

WE have been a very straightforward, fundamentally sound team and in the LPL that’s been good enough to put them into the conversation for one of the stronger teams. They’ve also done this well against a challenging schedule.

Dominus have had their struggles but this new roster is beginning to show at least some signs of life. Their past few series have been a marked improvement from the previous fare and looking at their trending numbers reveals that they’re probably not as bad a team as many people think.

Their season-long gold differential per minute of -155 is one of the worst in the LPL (only RW and LNG are worse) but Team WE’s +37.9 isn’t exactly impressive either 9th best in the the LPL. In some ways this makes sense. Of late, Team WE have been surrendering the early game with Teacherma struggling to get himself out of lane against some premium competition in the mid lane. What’s interesting, is that you’d think Team WE dominate the mid and late game and that hasn’t been the case. Their post-20 minute gold differential of +3.62 per minute ranks 9th in the league.

So what does all of this mean? For as good as Team WE have been about not making critical mistakes, clearing and maintaining vision, and positioning correctly, they’re not actually much more than an average LPL team despite the great start. Now, the counter argument to this is that they’ve faced a difficult schedule including EDG, Invictus, FPX, and JDG as well as Suning, Vici, and RNG. Rogue Warriors have been their only “easy” out. Having good numbers against a challenging schedule is typically impressive but still showcases some of Team WE’s flaws as a team the most important of which is that you can jump out to a lead on them fairly easily it’s closing the deal that’s the tough part.

Dominus haven’t been a terrible early game with with a significant edge in gold differential at 15 compared to Team WE but it’s that transition into the mid game that’s been the problem for them and Team WE have thrived on cleaning up on opponents mistakes.

There’s a chance we see a let down here from Team WE who have emerged from the most difficult portion of their schedule way ahead of expectation. Their only difficult opposition the rest of the season is Victory Five and TOP Esports.  This is also Team WE’s “light” week. They only play this match and they’re off until Tuesday July 14th. Dominus have a very winnable schedule upcoming with Rogue Warriors on Saturday and BiliBili next week. If there’s a time for them to show some signs of life this is it.

I’m going to be making a light play on Dominus here. Strictly by the numbers, this price is way WAY too rich for Team WE and with the potential for a bit of a coasting into the break I could see a lackluster performance by Team WE in this spot.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.23

Time-projected: 25.94

Odds Weighted: 23.73

Underdog Win: 24.5

“G” Projected Total: 24.97 kills

On one hand you can see sloppy games when a team isn’t dialed in but a lot of times it’s just lopsided. All of the numbers besides time projected (which uses cAVG game time) suggest an under play. See below for more  detailed time numbers.

 

WE game times: 34.2 / 30.1 / 38.34 (average / in wins / in losses)

DMO  game times: 30.29 / 33.23 / 29.45 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.26 minutes

Odds Weighted: 30.87 minutes

Considering this is juiced to the under I’ll be passing. If you can find -110 or better I do like a play on the under in this series.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: WE 42.86% / DMO 50%

First Tower: WE 57.14% / DMO 44.4%

First Dragon: WE 52.38% / DMO 44.4%

First Herald: WE 57.14% / DMO 38.8%

I’ll be playing the Dominus first blood at plus money. Team WE tend to focus more on herald/drake than getting the action going early. It’s why their first tower/herald rates are as high as they are. They play for the long game. There’s some value as Dominus have been able to get FB in half of their games and 6 of their past 8 games.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Dominus +1.5 maps @ +117 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Dominus +416 (0.5 units)

Spread: Dominus -1.5 maps @ +750 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Prop: Map 1 Dominus first blood @ +105 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Dominus first blood @ +105 (1 unit)

 

 

JD Gaming -333 (-1.5 maps @ +103) vs

EDward Gaming +244 (+1.5 maps @ -132, -1.5 @ +550)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -115 / +6.5 @ -114

Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -127)

Starting Lineups:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

EDG – Aodi, Jiejie, Scout, Hope, Meiko

 

The interesting thing about this matchup is that JDG appear to be rounding into form while EDG have been a little bit shaky of late. After playing back-to-back-to-back competitive series against Suning, Invictus, and TOP Esports all of which went to three games, EDG punted a series to Dominus where they just looked completely off their game. They came back and looked a little shakey against Rogue Warriors as well who jumped out to early leads in both games.

A lot of people are down on EDG right now due to these lackluster performance in their past two series but seem to have forgotten that this team has remained competitive against the best of the best in the LPL this season and last with every roster iteration. EDG are an intelligent team in the vein of Team WE except they offer the added bonus of snowballing an early game as we’ve seen them do a number of times, a skill Team WE seem to be sorely lacking this season.

I like the dogs in this spot as well despite JDG beginning to look really good again. EDG aren’t as bad a team as they’ve looked in their last two series and this price is a bit inflated due to recency bias in my opinion.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.94

Time-projected: 28.25

Odds-Weighted: 30.8

Underdog Win: 26.1

“G” Projected Total: 29.0 kills

Overs all day long. This number is off regardless of whether you think EDG or JDG win this series. Take the over. These markets are heavily juiced in game two so I’ll be playing game one overs and alt overs as well as the over 26.5 in game two.

 

JDG game times: 30.82 / 31.83 / 29.3 (average / in wins / in losses)

EDG game times: 34.67 / 37.12 / 32.23 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.75 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.36 minutes

EDG have won some longer games that are inflating their numbers but given both of these teams ability to snowball, especially JDG, I like the under. Time total unders have hit at over a 64% clip in the LPL this season.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: JDG 26.66% / EDG 61.11%

First Tower: JDG 40% / EDG 44.44%

First Dragon: JDG 46.66% / EDG 38.88%

First Herald: JDG 40% / EDG 50%

Jiejie has been an absolute wizard when it comes to first blood. He’s challenging Peanut this season. JDG tend to prioritize objectives similar to what we saw in the last series.  I’ll be laying money for EDG first blood given the large delta still being a stronger implied outcome than the odds.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -132 (1.32 units)

Moneyline: EDG +244 (0.5 units)

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +550 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -127 (1.27 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -133 (1.33 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 27.5 @ +118 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 28.5 @ +139 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 29.5 @ +163 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 1 EDG first blood @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 2 EDG first blood @ -122 (1.22 units)

 

 

 

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