Sunday, July 26th Recap
BiliBili vs JD Gaming (Net: -2.41 units)
Definitely a more competitive series that I thought it would be and I was already thinking it would be. Game two easily could have been a loss for JDG. Still they got the job done.
TOP vs Invictus (Net: +2.84 units)
This was incredibly entertaining… there’s just not a lot of words. It wasn’t exactly the cleanest series from either side as there were clearly a lot of egos trying to show off. It did end on a CLASSIC JackeyLove overextension though which was a bit of a laugh. I think people that didn’t watch him the first time around are going to be surprised but those that have been around aren’t surprised. He does this from time to time. That dancing on a knife’s edge is part of what makes him great.
LPL Total: +0.43 units
SeolHaeOne vs SANDBOX (Net: -0.88 units)
… I actually think less of Sandbox for this series. Any team that’s really going to compete is going to have weird games once in awhile but Sandbox legitimately struggled at times during this game two.
KT Rolster vs Team Dynamics (Net: -4.56 units)
We got crushed on props in this one. Had the right side but the script for this series ended up playing out completely opposite of what I thought it would look like until game three. Dynamics remain competitive but KT did get the job done.
LCK Total: -5.44 units
Dignitas vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.0 units)
Liquid vs Cloud 9 (Net: -1.115 units)
CLG vs TSM (Net: -0.19 units)
100 Thieves vs Golden Guardians (Net: -1.0 units)
Will update this tomorrow after I VOD review these.
LCS Total: -1.305 units
Daily Total Net: -6.135 units
Not a great day for me. Little unlucky with how the TD / KT series played out despite having the right sides. Did hit on Invictus though which was nice.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 9 – Day 1
OMG +349 (+1.5 maps @ +103 , -1.5 @ +802) vs
Suning Gaming -500 (-1.5 maps @ -132)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -111 / -7.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Eric, Sora
Suning are 5-0 straight up, 2-3 against the map spread as favorites (vs LNG, RW, DMO, eStar, BLG)
Suning are 9-4 against the kill spread as favorites
OMG are 1-8 straight up, 6-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +192)
OMG are 11-12 against the kill spread as underdogs this season (avg spread: +4.72)
Sora gets the start again here but the new addition to OMG is Eric, the start from OMG’s LDL team OMD. In that team he was the focal point with most of their team compositions built around him.
This is about the time of year where a lot of weird stuff happens in the LPL. When you have such a long season with so many teams in a league the playoff implications end up happening a lot earlier than you’d expect for some squads and there is almost always some whacky non-sense that happens.
OMG aren’t mathematically eliminated but they’d need to go a perfect 8-0 in games and then have certain opponents lose out so they’re basically eliminated and using this time to try out their likely future bottom laner Eric. Suning, on the other hand, sit alone in 4th with a match lead on Victory Five with each having four matches remaining. A win here would be huge towards earning Suning a round one bye. They still have FPX, TOP, and Vici to go after this match making this their weakest opponent remaining. They’ll want to secure this win and I’d expect them to be more motivated to take this match and secure a playoff spot and potentially more.
The difficult thing about handicapping this time of year is that a team with nothing to lose can be a dangerous thing, especially when the pressure is on the other team, just as often as they can “mail it in” for the rest of the season. While I don’t see OMG as a team that will suddenly change their stripes, I do respect the fact that new blood and a care free attitude could be a good thing to loosen this team up.
The value here is almost certainly on OMG. Suning have been winning and quietly putting together a solid season but their metrics have been only slightly above average. While I’d say Suning are almost definitely a better film team than their numbers state, they’re not exactly a dominant, world class level team. They are just below that level though and they’re pretty good about getting things done even if it’s ugly. Given the uncertainty about OMG’s demeanor and Suning’s tendency to drop games to this level of team I’m a little hesitant to slam the Suning spread here but I’m very confident that they’ll get this done. I won’t be on a side in this match but the value is definitely on OMG, just not confident in either.
Odds Weighted: 22.63
Underdog Win: 28.99
“G” Projected Total: 23.69 kills
The under seems like the play but both of these teams have play a few longer bloodbaths this season as well. Again, I’m not sure if OMG are going to be really loose and Suning tight or if both are going to play a tight game here. If you think the latter, take the under, if not pass or lean over.
SN game times: 32.88 / 32.28 / 33.84 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 33.44 / 34.61 / 32.70 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 33.16 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.86 minutes
Similar to the game script above, if you think this is fast and loose or sloppy take the under, if not pass or lean over.
First Blood: SN 37.71% / OMG 41.94%
First Tower: SN 48.38% / OMG 29.03%
First Dragon: SN 41.94% / OMG 54.84%
First Herald: SN 41.94% / OMG 41.94%
OMG first herald presents some value at +115 as does first blood for OMG.
Prop: Map 1 OMG first blood @ +105 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first blood @ +105 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 OMG first herald @ +115 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first herald @ +115 (0.5 units)
Vici Gaming -476 (-1.5 maps @ -122) vs
Dominus Esports +326 (+1.5 maps @ -105, -1.5 @ +749)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -109 / -7.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -115 / under -114)
VG – Cube, Aix, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro
DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui
Vici are 4-2 straight up, 1-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -195)
Vici are 8-8 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.17)
DMO are 1-9 straight up, 4-6 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +519)
DMO are 10-13 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +7.7)
Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 14 out of 23 games where DMO were underdogs (avg total: 25.1)
The model actually projects this as a larger gap in rating than the previous series by just a bit and weirdly enough I feel similarly more confident. Vici are now in must win territory. At 6-6 with Suning, LGD, and Invictus left on the table they’ve got their work cut out for them if they’re going to take the 8th playoff spot and it starts here. Dominus are mathematically eliminated.
I’ve had a bit of a soft spot for Vici this season because they’re a team that does a lot of things well on film that doesn’t necessarily come out in the statistics. I kind of wish Leyan was getting the start here as he’s been a severely underrated player this season (look at his numbers in the post from a few days ago). Dominus have been feisty at best but ultimately the worst team in the model BY FAR (model has them quite a bit worse than LNG and OMG at this point).
I think Vici are going to run this team over. I know you could look at this as “Suning are in 4th but you’re hesitant on them but you like Vici here?” and the answer is yes. OMG are team that’s much more able to punch up with individual performances and they’ve also brought in some fresh faces to stir things up. Dominus did that earlier this season, made an obvious improvement, and they’re still bad. Big difference.
Underdog Win: 28.65
“G” Projected Total: 23.87 kills
I think these are going to be very fast wins by Vici. They draft for tempo and play around it well even if they don’t end up closing well against some of the better teams which is what’s inflating a lot of their season long numbers. For this reason I like both the time under and kill total under.
VG game times: 32.5 / 31.65 / 33.11 (average / in wins / in losses)
DMO game times: 32.13 / 32.89 / 31.93 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.31 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.05 minutes
First Blood: VG 48.39% / DMO 53.57%
First Tower: VG 54.83% / DMO 35.71%
First Dragon: VG 48.39% / DMO 42.86%
First Herald: VG 61.29% / DMO 39.29%
Projections say there is value on DMO first blood and first dragon if you’re brave enough but like I said I really do think Vici are going to absolutely run this series over. I’ll be betting the under dragons instead of these since the Vici props are juiced up.
Spread: Vici Gaming -1.5 maps @ -122 (1.83 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +122 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +119 (1 unit)