Sunday, July 19th Recap

 

TOP Esports vs Vici Gaming (Net: -1.915 units)

TOP completely ran over game one but game two ended up being a 50+ minute slobberknocker in which TOP jumped out to a lead and Vici had a few weird skirmish decisions but eventually Vici was able to outscale TOP’s poke composition. The next 25 minutes or so was just a total fiesta. Loads of mistakes from both teams. TOP made a really creative call to bait a split push match and 2v1’d to break the stall, force Vici to fight at elder drake and it just fell apart from there for Vici.

Aix had some awful positioning in setting up for fights and just looked like he couldn’t get on the same page this game after a great opening. Knight played really REALLY disrespectfully in this series and get punished for it a number of times throughout the day.

Good and bad for Vici. Good and bad for TOP in this one. If Knight is just going to play to try to style on people I’ll probably be more willing to take shots against TOP the rest of the season but he’s just as capable of finding ways to win while doing that so I’ll choose my spots wisely.

Vici are legitimately pretty good if that wasn’t abundantly clear and this is why I’ve been going to bat for them.

JD Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: -2.325 units)

This was a pretty close game one that FPX were ahead in before a fight at the third dragon went horribly wrong on what looked like a split call by FPX and it just got out of hand from there. Game two JDG jumped out and stayed ahead.

JDG are looking good. FPX are… well they’re not looking good but they aren’t really looking bad either. Loss to Rogue Warriors was really bad, hyper disrespectful draft and play. The other losses have been to really good teams in fairly competitive games so it’s tough to really fault them there. FPX are likely going to make playoffs still. they get EDG, LGD, OMG, and Suning the rest of the way and to me anyway, it’s tough to see them losing more than one of those which would put them at worst 9-7 but they’ve got work out some of the small issues they’ve been having. It seems like the little things are what’s costing them games. It’s not like FPX have sweeping, systemic issues that’s causing them to have this record like some other teams.

LPL Total: -4.24 units

 

SeolHaeOne vs Hanwha Life (Net: +0.44 units)

WHO WAS READY FOR THE HYPEST MATCH OF …. yea…

So this one was a little bit better than the last time around by both teams but this was still far from great League of Legends. Hanwha look a little bit better with Mireu in the mid lane but it’s really tough to judge anything against an opponent the caliber of Mickey. I don’t know this was just a mess. Viper and Dudu carried. Best player in the series won the series.

DragonX vs Team Dynamics (Net: +0.64 units)

Dynamics had a pretty good opening in game one but next few skirmishes went slightly in favor of DRX each time and eventually the game was blown open. Game two we got to see the top lane Karma from Rascal which is slowly becoming a menacing pocket pick that teams must deal with especially on this set of patches. DRX jumped out to a lead in this one and it was essentially over as they had a very strong mid game team to outrace the scaling from Dynamics.

Dynamics continue to show good signs. They do a lot of things right but they’re going to struggle against the elite teams with very strong individual talent. They legitimately look like a #5 or #6 to me at this point. DragonX are developing and trying to play more early game centric compositions again as I think they’ve correctly identified that they need to have a more balanced composition in most games and they’ll just win that way.

 

LCK Total: +1.08 units

 

 

100 Thieves vs Team Liquid  (Net: ??)

FlyQuest vs Cloud 9  (Net: ??)

CLG vs Immortals (Net: ??)

Golden Guardians vs Dignitas (Net: ??)

 

LCS Total: ?? units

Will update tomorrow.

 

Daily Total Net: ?? units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 1

 

 

 

Team WE -169 (-1.5 maps @ +190) vs

LGD Gaming +130 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +338)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -119 / +2.5 @ -110)

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -115 / under -114)

Starting Lineups:

WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends:

Team WE are 4-1 straight up, 2-3 against the map spread as favorites

LGD are 1-2 straight up, 2-1 against the map spread as underdogs

 

This one hurts my brain. Macro vs micro. Brains vs brawn. Statistically LGD are the play here no question. The model sees them as a slightly better team overall and they’re the underdogs. My film review and evaluation find it difficult to ignore a solid fundamental macro team like Team WE against the stone cold stupid decision making we see by LGD on a nearly constant basis.

I’m going to side with Team WE here for a few reasons.

First, I don’t trust LGD to reliably get leads for themselves as much as I did earlier in the season. They’ve slowly been tapering off as the season goes along. I mentioned often that this team was heavily reliant on first blood and gold leads to mask their macro deficiencies. They needed big leads. LGD have only picked up first blood in three of their past ten games. Team WE have been picking up steam catching it six times in their past ten.

Second, even with leads, Team WE’s opponents seem unable to consistently break into the fortress and make a significant impact on the game against WE’s typical scaling compositions.

Third, Team WE make very intelligent mid and late game macro decisions and LGD are one of the furthest possible things from that. It would not surprise me at all the see LGD jump out to leads and blunder it.

Typically I favor teams that jump out to a lead because it’s much easier to play from that position but LGD simply can’t be trusted with a lead against Team WE and if WE get the upper hand this game might as well be lights out. Given that we’ve accounted for most scenarios on the side of Team WE that’s where I’ll be.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 23.46

Time-projected: 23.28

Odds Weighted:  23.66

Underdog Win: 23.39

“G” Projected Total: 23.47 kills

Right on the money.

 

WE game times: 33.97 / 31.18 / 34.29 (average / in wins / in losses)

LGD  game times: 33.49 / 31.39 / 35.765 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 33.73 minutes

Odds Weighted:  33.21 minutes

If you think LGD are going to get a game here off of a snowball then unders are in play in those situations but I don’t see that happening more than once. Pass.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: WE 44.44% / LGD 60%

First Tower: WE 62.96% / LGD 64%

First Dragon: WE 59.26% / LGD 32%

First Herald:  WE 51.85% / LGD 52%

While the season long totals suggest a first blood play on LGD or pass (depending on your threshold), I mentioned the trending numbers above. I like WE at plus money here.

I like WE for first dragon as well.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Team WE -169 (2.535 units)

Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +187 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 WE first blood @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 WE first blood @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 WE first dragon @ -137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 WE first dragon @ -137 (1 unit)

 

 

 

 

Victory Five -159 (-1.5 maps @ +184) vs

Invictus Gaming +123 (+1.5 maps @ -244, -1.5 @ +332)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -143)

Starting Lineups:

V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, Samd, ppgod

IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan

Trends:

Invictus have only been underdogs twice this season (1-1, 1-1 ATS vs FPX and JDG)

V5 are 3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the map spread as favorites

V5 are 6-1 against the kill spread as favorites (vs BLG, eStar, LNG)

 

It’s a little weird to think that V5 have only been favored three times this season and they’re at the top of the standings. It’s also weird that Invictus have only been underdogs twice considering the poor start they had.

Victory Five are fresh off a long rest week and a win over TOP Esports in their last outing while Invictus have been piecing together a 9 win portfolio one three game series at a time.

This is a wild one to think about. V5 have clearly been the Cinderella story in the LPL going from the single worst season of professional LOL in history to an 8-2 record including a takedown of the consensus world #1 TOP Esports last week. Invictus have been “disappointing,” “sloppy,” and can’t seem to win a series 2-0 to save their lives but they’ve also been dealing with a new staff shuffle, a revolving door at support that finally appears to have settled on former world champion Baolan, and all the while developing an entirely new and balanced approach to the game. This isn’t the same Invictus.

I like Invictus here and it’s absolutely no disrespect to V5 who have been impressive but Invictus are a classic example of a team that is better than their numbers and results indicate (although some of those numbers are absolutely batty). If you consider that Invictus has 5 more game losses and only 1 more game win, the fact that many of their season long averages are similar should be telling to just how individually consistent Invictus are as a team. They’re slowly but steadily developing their macro game and their drafts have improved significantly. I also think that we’ve seen the blueprint for how to beat Victory Five laid out in recent series. Still beating them is a challenge in and of itself but the more time that goes by where teams can work on that blueprint the tougher it will become for V5 who rely heavily on set plays and tempo over individual prowess.

“But they just beat TOP!” Yes they did, TOP had a weird game three draft and JackeyLove played an uncharacteristically bad series. Not really an excuse but the only reason that V5 are favored here is because of that victory. As impressive as it was, we shouldn’t be crowning them kings of the world yet. TOP and FPX both showed good draft strategies that really pushed V5 to play out of their comfort zone and it was pretty obvious that they were a very different looking team in these games regardless of the results. I think Invictus get the job done here.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.91

Time-projected: 26.656

Odds-Weighted: 24.36

Underdog Win:  25.47

“G” Projected Total: 25.64 kills

Given the nature of how these two teams have been playing recently, unless we get a commitment to split pushing from TheShy, which is totally possible, this should be an over. This opened at 24.5 but I missed the boat. 25.5 is right on. Pass.

 

V5 game times: 30.56 / 31.44 / 28.29 (average / in wins / in losses)

IG game times: 31.31 / 29.96 / 33.66 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 30.935 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.12 minutes

Both of these teams win extremely quickly. V5 lose quickly as well. Invictus have been excellent about slowing games down from a deficit to get back into them but typically know how to close the door with any advantage. Take the under.

Other markets:

First Blood: V5 32% / IG 33.33%

First Tower:  V5 56% / IG 51.51%

First Dragon: V5 48% / IG 54.545%

First Herald:  V5 36% / IG 39.39%

Unfortunately the first markets are all priced pretty tightly. I do, however, like the under 4.5 dragons since this series projects to be snowbally, quick games. V5 average 4.48 dragons per game and IG 4.64 per game. Given the pace at which both play I’d expect these to be extremely lopsided games one way or the other.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Invictus +1.5 maps @ -244 (2.44 units)

Moneyline: Invictus +123 (1 unit)

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +332 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -143 (1.43 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +151 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +152 (1 unit)

 

 

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