Sunday, July 12th Recap

 

LGD vs OMG (Net: +2.65 units)

Game one started with a botched dive on Gangplank and with a Nidalee+Leblanc combo this game snowballing the opposite way from them spelled bad news for LGD. This turned into an absolute bloodbath and it didn’t have to because OMG were incredibly sloppy in closing this out.

The next game was comical to me. LGD literally just ran the same set play again and it worked this time. Snowballed from there.

Game three was action packed early and we got to see the Pantheon support from Cold and Jhin from Kramer which was interesting. It was fairly even for the first 20 minutes or so before LGD’s advantages they’d accrued over the game eventually added up to a big team fight win in the mid lane, two towers and a 3rd dragon to force soul point. From there OMG threw a hail mary TP play that LGD almost fell for but they were just too far ahead and the game was over there.

LGD continue to show that they can wallet slap effectively. What I mean by that is that when they get gold leads they know how to abuse them in combat but they don’t always create the highest leverage positions for themselves and from behind they’re rarely going to win because their overall lack of macro fundamentals. Still, they’re very good at getting themselves ahead in the first place so they’re going to remain a competitive team especially against the non-elite teams in the LPL.

EDG vs RNG (Net: -5.67 units)

Both of these games were extremely close. Both teams played excellent uptempo looks regardless of the kill totals. A LOT happened early, the pace was torrid. RNG just came out ahead in game one on dragons. Fewer mistakes.

Game two was frustrating to say the least. EDG had a massive lead and secured infernal soul but JunJia and Meiko got caught warding in preparation for the baron which allowed RNG to pick that up to stall. Next, EDG ran directly to elder drake but were separated with 2 on one side 3 on the other. RNG attempted to wedge (correct play) but lost the team fight anyway. EDG decisively win the fight, decided to shove bottom lane, take inhibitor and decide first to try to end the game but back off after taking one nexus turret. RNG then rushed the elder, picked up the buff. EDG likely could have stalled this out but Hope made a rare error in positioning and got caught by a flash Galio taunt after an early arcane shift and they blew him up. Then Xiaoxiang looked like he went in on a call and the team bailedo n him.Then RNG threw a baron fight. Eventually RNG won the next elder fight and the game ended.

This game two was absolutely infuriating. EDG won this game and lost this game about five times each…

Xiaoxiang had a great debut performance on the Kennen, solo killing New and nearly doing so multiple times. Great teleport flanks. He played very well in game two on Camille as well despite being the victim of what looked like a miscommunication when he went in without the team late in the game.

Just a brutal loss.

LPL Total: -3.02 units

 

T1 vs Team Dynamics (Net: +1.01 units)

Faker vs the Faker of HotS

First of all, mad props to Dynamics for bringing this back after losing game one against T1. That’s not easy for anybody to do. This game was very even through the first 28 minutes before T1 managed to pull a clean ace after securing third dragon. Faker had a number of near 1v2 plays in this game on Corki. He’s still so damn good.

Game two was a really clean Dynamics snowball into infernal soul. Rich putting in a big performance on the top lane Lucian.

Game three was also neck and neckfor awhile but T1 made a pretty big positioning error which allowed Dynamics to pick up the 4th drake (their 3rd) of the game for free. The same thing happened for the baron minutes later and again for the dragon soul minutes after that although that was due to an incredible Bard ultimate by Guger that bought them time to burst it and get out free.

Game three was an absolute clinic in what I’ve been talking about with this Dynamics team and attacking windows or making the plus EV play. This team, whether they’re ahead or behind, seemingly always makes the positive even play and game three was a perfect example of that.

Of note: Faker was on the mid Lulu in this game which I think is a fine pick when you have three other big damage dealers but just couldn’t do enough in this one. Wasn’t the reason they lost but certainly didn’t feel impactful. I like the pick just not in this spot and against this team comp from Dynamics.

T1 looked a little sluggish and this is perhaps cause for concern but Dynamics looked like the best version of the team I’ve been seeing consistently throughout the season. They’ll be challenging for a playoff spot.

Hanwha Life vs Gen.G (Net: +3.0 units)

… not much to say on this one.

 

LCK Total: +4.01 units

 

Immortals vs TSM  (Net: -2.44 units)

I don’t know if TSM were just asleep at the wheel today or what but I more or less hulked out on their bottom lane in the Discord.

Check out this savage map awareness…. 

Your top tower is down, multiple people are missing off the map…. where else can they be coming? This is legitimately some gold solo queue level game sense and the TSM bottom lane looked absolutely clueless. I get it, they were trying to get the wave reset but this was painfully obvious and they looked completely oblivious.

 

100 Thieves vs Cloud 9  (Net:  -1.85 units)

Cloud 9 played very poorly in this game. They started taking fights seemingly just because and looked an awful lot like DAMWON Gaming. I was worried this would eventually happen but they kept showing that they would repeatedly make the correct decisions over and over. This time they didn’t. 100 Thieves did a great job making plays happen and coming out on top of them but I’d say this was just as much if not more C9’s responsibility for the loss than 100t’s for the win. Still, beating this team is no small feat and 100 Thieves deserve credit.

Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid  (Net:  +1.0 units)

This was yet another typical TL win. Not particularly close but close in the scoreline. Liquid are a good team even if they aren’t blowing people out. Against good teams this is going to bite them in the ass once in awhile like we saw in a few of their weird games last week.

Golden Guardians showed well in this one but Liquid were just too controlled.

CLG vs Evil Geniuses  (Net:  +1.545 units)

This game was a bonanza. Yet another Evil Geniuses lead punted. EG remind me so much of LGD who have no idea how actually methodically set up for things and close a game out they just know how to wallet slap you. This is going to be a problem because they’re liable to punt games to mid and bottom tier teams as well as the good teams. EG better shape up quick.

CLG deserve some credit for bringing this one back from the brink. This game got really crazy and Pobelter put his carry pants on BIG TIME.

 

LCS Total: -1.745 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: -0.755 units

 

Two gigantic favorites in C9 and TSM both lose. Rest of the day went alright. EDG/RNG could have gone either way too just ended in a 2-0. Bad punt in that one as well. I’m confident in my reads on these teams.

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 1

 

LPL Trends Through Week 6:

Favorites are 55-21 straight up, 30-46 against the map spread

There have been 9 underdog 2-0 sweeps:

(3x V5, WE vs IG, LNG vs RNG, OMG vs LNG, DOM vs EDG, BLG vs LNG, SN vs LGD)

Kill Spreads are a 93-96 favorite-underdog split

Kill Totals are a 92-97 over-under split

Time Totals are a 79-110 over-under split

Favorites have covered their team total 91-98

Underdogs have covered their team total 96-93

 

 

TOP Esports -500 (-1.5 maps @ -128) vs

Victory Five +342 (+1.5 maps @ +100, -1.5 @ +758)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -122 / +7.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +101 / under -132)

Starting Lineups:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, Samd, ppgod

Trends:

TOP are 8-0 straight up, 6-2 against the map spread as favorites this season

TOP are 10-8 against the kill spread, 4-0 against other “elite” teams (FPX, JDG)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 12 out of 18 TOP games

V5 are 4-2 straight up, 6-0 against the map spread as underdogs this season

V5 are 10-5 against the kill spread as underdogs

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 22 V5 games

 

Here we are! I never thought I’d see the day where Victory Five look like one of the top teams in the LPL but that’s the timeline we’re living in apparently.

Victory Five grade out as the #2 overall in the LPL and so far they’ve been deserving of the title but they are outclassed in every metric my model weights except baron control % which they lead the league in. They’re close in gold differential at 15 minutes where they’re still outclassed by TOP. In every single other measure they’re a large margin away. It speaks to just how dominant TOP Esports are right now.

So how do we end up playing this series?

Let’s first take a look at how these teams have done against other good teams this season. V5 have two losses, 1-2 to each of FunPlus Phoenix and LGD. They also have a win against Vici (who the model likes quite a bit). TOP Esports have two single game losses to EDG and OMG (weird flex right?).

What about “how” these teams are winning? TOP Esports have been more or less winning at all points at all times throughout the season but their absurd post-20 minute gold differential per minute has really helped them completely take home any and all of their leads. Victory Five have been relying on early game leads to boost them past the finish line but have actually declined past the twenty minute mark with a few teams ahead of them in that number (FPX, JDG, and LGD as well as TOP).

TOP are the top team in the world relative to their league and the only team that’s remotely close is Cloud 9. At least according to the statistics. At some point I could see their hubris and arrogance catching up to them but they have every reason to be as cocky as they are. Knight has played 11 champions in 18 games and has a 9.9 KDA. That’s obscene. There were times during the FPX series where it felt like FPX had some momentum and TOP were in almost absolute full control the entire time despite how it “felt.” There’s just so few holes to poke in this team and after watching them just dismantle FPX after a ridiculous performance from the “weak link” Yuyanjia, I’m just not sure anybody is beating this team in the near future. They currently have a 4.16 gold percent rating which is the highest I’ve seen in four years tracking the statistic through an 18+ game sample size. their 298 gold differential per minute is one of the most absurd numbers I’ve ever seen too.

The model likes a “value” play on V5 in this spot but I’m having a hard time justifying anything against TOP Esports. If we were to use Madden style ratings systems based on my model’s outlooks for these two, TOP grade out as a 97. V5 an 84. These are relative to the league but think about that…

Regardless of how this series turns out just enjoy it. This should be a great one.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.34

Time-projected: 25.32

Odds Weighted: 24.98

Underdog Win: 25.5

“G” Projected Total: 24.88 kills

I’d lean to the over expecting these two to really duke it out but I’ll pass.

 

TOP game times: 31.28 / 33.86 / 34.42 (average / in wins / in losses)

V5  game times:  30.79 / 31.59 / 28.63 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.03 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.62minutes

What’s tricky about this is that V5 tend to lose quickly but TOP tend to close slowly so it makes this market very high variance. I’ll pass.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: TOP 55.55% / V5 27.27%

First Tower: TOP 61.11% / V5 54.54%

First Dragon: TOP 61.11% / V5 50%

First Herald: TOP 61.11% / V5 40.91%

Given the delta there’s some value in TOP first blood and first herald.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -128 (1.28 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first blood @ -143 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first blood @ -143 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first herald @ -159 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first herald @ -159 (1 unit)

 

 

 

Suning Gaming -200 (-1.5 maps @ +162) vs

BiliBili Gaming +155 (+1.5 maps @ -208, -1.5 @ +398)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -116 / +5.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -109)

Starting Lineups:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo

Trends:

Suning are 4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites

Suning are 7-3 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 22 Suning games

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 22 Suning games

BiliBili are 2-5 straight up, 4-3 against the map spread as underdogs (1x 2-0)

BiliBili are 8-9 against the kill spread as underdogs (4-3 in past three matches)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 17 games where BLG were underdogs

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 17 games where BLG were underdogs

 

Suning have quietly been one of the strongest teams in the LPL this season. Their graphs look very similar to Victory Five, jumping out to leads at 15 minutes (3rd in the league at gold differential at 15) and slowly tapering off as the game goes on. As a matter of fact, if it weren’t for their abysmal herald control rate compared to V5’s they’d have a very similar power number. It’s only one factor but they’re multiple orders of magnitude worse. I keep thinking Suning might be a tad fraudulent but they’re just not. This team is pretty good.

BiliBili have looked better with Meteor back in the lineup so they’re almost definitely better than their season long measures but the question is how much improvement do we want to bake into our handicap here. This model factors in recent performance with some weight and even with that under consideration, Suning appear to be the play here.

I’m sticking with Suning. BiliBili have really struggled to effectively close out a lot of the games that they have a lead in even with Meteor back in the lineup. They allow opposing teams way too many options to get back into the game. I also think that they’re fairly predictable and if you can anticipate a tempo-focused draft and plan accordingly you can set yourself up for success. If you look at Suning’s performance against “tempo teams” it’s been pretty good. 2-0 vs LGD, 2-1 vs eStar are the standouts. They’ve yet to play JDG, FPX, and V5. BiliBili are worse versions of those teams.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.74

Time-projected: 25.47

Odds-Weighted: 24.82

Underdog Win: 24.87

“G” Projected Total: 25.34 kills

Easy over play.

 

SN game times:  32.92 / 32.29 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)

BLG game times: 31.32 / 32.06 / 30.82 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.12 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.07 minutes

I like the over on time total here as well. When BiliBili win they tend to stall out more often than they should. In about half of their wins they’ve taken way too long to close out. Suning are comfortable playing late game as well.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: SN 40.91% / BLG 45%

First Tower: SN 54.54% / BLG 45%

First Dragon: SN 54.54% / BLG 50%

First Herald:  SN 36.36% / BLG 42.55%

These are all priced pretty tightly. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Suning -200 (2 units)

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +162 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -120 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ -119 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -108 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -114 (1 unit)

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