Sunday, August 2nd Recap
Victory Five vs JDG (Net: -1.2 units)
eStar vs Team WE (Net: -3.84 units)
TOP vs RNG (Net: -1.49 units)
LPL Total: -6.53 units
DAMWON vs Hanwha Life (Net: +2.0 units)
T1 vs SANDBOX (Net: -5.75 units)
LCK Total:-3.75 units
Golden Guardians vs CLG (Net: -1.89 units)
Cloud 9 vs Team Solo Mid (Net: no wagers)
FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses (Net: 0-.175 units)
100 Thieves vs Immortals (Net: +2.62 units)
LCS Total: +0.555 units
Daily Total Net: -9.725 units
August LPL strikes again. Brutal day.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 10 – Day 1
FunPlus Phoenix -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -263) vs
Dominus Esports +749 (+1.5 maps @ +196, -1.5 @ +1002)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -125 / +10.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -111 / under -118)
FPX – GimGoon, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui
I’ve really not been impressed with the GimGoon version of FPX. Was it the right move to go back to him? “They’re winning that’s all that matters” is the prevailing justification but if you look at GimGoon’s play it really isn’t having that drastic of an impact. FunPlus remain an extremely linear team and while you’d think this metagame is great for Doinb, the fact that he can’t get out to a sidelane and 1-3-1 is hindering his champion pool which has become extremely predictable and able to be abused. GimGoon further hinders their options as a team. I’m not saying FunPlus are bad, they still play very well in game but they are a predictable team with very obviously weakness that can be exploited by decent teams and likely even not-so-decent teams.
Dominus have solidified themselves as the worst team in the LPL both from the eye test and in the statistical model. They rank dead last, or close to it, in most major measurable categories. While this iteration of the roster does look better and does tend to bring the fight to you, they’re far from a good team. It is worth noting, however, that they did have a large gold lead against RNG in their most recent game (game two of that series). Dominus don’t roll over and die, they’ll fight you for it but this team is deservingly bottom dwelling.
FunPlus need this win to stay alive in the playoff hunt and with a win would more than likely secure the 8th seed as they’d have a two game advantage on RNG and Vici but I’m actually going to play the underdog kill spread here. Anytime you get double digit numbers I’m going to pay attention, especially if a team has everything to play for vs a team with nothing to play for catching the ten. In most sports that’s a fade spot, in LOL it’s sort of the opposite because the other team loosens up and isn’t afraid to take a fight while the team playing for a playoff spot has to be extra careful to make sure they win. I think that’s what we could see here. FPX have been much more willing to trade kills for objectives or other advantages around the map since going back to Gimgoon. Their combined kills per minute spiked up to 0.95 from 0.83 the rest of the season.
FunPlus have an average margin of victory of 8.84 for the season and 6.66 since GimGoon returned to the lineup. FPX have covered this kill total in 9 out of 19 wins this season but MOST of their wins have been by 9 or less including all but one of their past six since GimGoon returned. Dominus have an average margin of defeat (AMOD) of 9.83.
I like the underdog kill spreads but I just don’t see a world where Dominus take more than a game here so I’m going to just stick to that. Consider this a bet against FunPlus’ limitations more than an endorsement of Dominus. I also just think FunPlus are going to play this extremely carefully which could result in a longer game.
Underdog Win: 27.72
“G” Projected Total: 25.32 kills
FPX have been much more willing to trade kills for objectives or other advantages around the map since going back to Gimgoon. Their combined kills per minute spiked up to 0.95 from 0.83 the rest of the season. Typically I like taking the under when a team has their season on the line like this because they play overly cautious so I’m going to avoid the over in this spot despite the projection suggesting it.
FPX game times: 31.13 / 31.09 / 31.18 (average / in wins / in losses)
DMO game times: 31.78 / 32.89 / 31.53 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.46 minutes
Odds Weighted: 31.39 minutes
I like the over quite a bit here again because I expect FunPlus to play this cautiously and slowly to make sure they secure their playoff berth.
First Blood: FPX 61.11% / DMO 50%
First Tower: FPX 38.89% / DMO 34.37%
First Dragon: FPX 63.89% / DMO 46.88%
First Herald: FPX 44.44% / DMO 37.5%
FunPlus haven’t placed a lot of focus on first tower or herald this season which, quite frankly, could be a lot of the reason they’ve struggled in adapting to current play patterns. I actually like Dominus for both of these because the numbers are absurd due to the moneyline.
Kill Spread: Map 1 Dominus +10.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 Dominus +10.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)
Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)
Time Total: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)
Prop: Map 1 DMO first herald @ +135 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 DMO first herald @ +135 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 DMO first tower @ +165 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 DMO first tower @ +159 (1 unit)
BiliBili Gaming +236 (+1.5 maps @ -141, -1.5 @ +535) vs
LGD Gaming -357 (-1.5 maps @ +106)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -123 / -6.5 @ -105
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -123 / under -105)
LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
LGD are 7-2 straight up, 3-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -295)
LGD have been swept by the underdog twice (vs Suning and RW)
LGD are 13-9 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.61)
LGD have covered their team total in just 8 out of 22 games as favorites (avg total: 14.28)
With this lineup, BLG are 2-5 straight up, 5-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +260)
They are also 9-8 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.21)
BLG have covered their team total in 10 out of 17 underdog appearances (avg total: 10.07)
BiliBili continue to be the team that gets leads and can’t close with them which is frustrating but I’d rather see them getting leads in the first place than not as I’ve stated a million times already this season. FoFo has been playing at a very high level no matter the champion in the past few matches.
LGD won a bizarre series against Vici where they definitely should have dropped the first game if not for a fatal error by Vici but came back and had maybe their most sound fundamental win of the year in game two, not a typical look for them.
So the catch here is that BiliBili are now eliminated from playoffs while this is essentially a win-and-in for LGD which would put them to 10 wins. Stylistically I absolutely love this matchup for BiliBili. LGD are a bad team when they don’t have a lead or are even slightly behind in games. They look completely lost anytime the ball isn’t rolling in their favor and BiliBili are actually a very good early game team. BLG actually grade better than LGD in the early game and that’s typically a metric we like LGD for. That said, LGD have improved their mid and late game play of late. It’s not great by any stretch but it’s not quite the travesty it was most of the season. I still don’t trust them though.
We saw this morning the power of August regular season LPL in full swing. Things get really weird. Motivations become suspect. Sometimes teams with nothing to lose play much better once the pressure is off and they’re eliminated. Sometimes teams look past certain teams. We also saw the concept of fire with fire this morning in JDG vs V5. Two early game centric teams clashing an create some surprising results. Admittedly those two teams are significantly better than these two but I’m going to take a shot at the underdogs to play spoiler here. Wouldn’t doubt a massive performance from Meteor as he’s playing for a new contract likely with a new team next split given the off field issues here.
Underdog Win: 23.66
“G” Projected Total: 23.0 kills
Given the speed at which I expect these to close I like the under. IT might seem weird to say that given how both of these teams have a tendency to sometimes stall out with a lead but I also think neither of them play particularly good defense from behind like a lot of teams do against them. I like the under quite a bit here. The only concern I have is that this game could get a little bit loosey goosey since BLG are eliminated but it’s not enough to scare me off of this play.
LGD game times: 33.69 / 32.87 / 34.78 (average / in wins / in losses)
BLG game times: 32.71 / 32.59 / 32.79 (average / in wins / in losses)
Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.2 minutes
Odds Weighted: 33.07 minutes
Similar reasons to above I like the under.
First Blood: LGD 51.43% / BLG 50%
First Tower: LGD 62.85% / BLG 55.88%
First Dragon: LGD 34.29% / BLG 44.12%
First Herald: LGD 48.57% / BLG 50%
I like BLG first dragon here as well as the under 4.5 dragons given the anticipated quick games.
Spread: BLG +1.5 maps @ -141 (1.41 units)
Moneyline: BLG +236 (0.5 units)
Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +526 (0.25 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Prop: Map 1 BLG first dragon @ -104 (1.04 units)
Prop: Map 2 BLG first dragon @ -104 (1.04 units)
Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +141 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +144 (1 unit)