Thursday, June 11th Recap
Dominus vs eStar (Net: +1.88 units)
Game two was an utter shellacking but game one was a little bit hairy as Dominus actually managed a snowball with Nidalee and Zilean. Honestly eStar probably should have lost game one but out teamfought Dominus to a ridiculous degree and baited them into a few bad situations. A little lucky but hey, you take those when you can especially with the poor run I’ve been on lately.
Team WE vs Invictus (Net: -3.255 units)
While this game one throw wasn’t quite as egregious as the ones from the past two days, Invictus almost definitely should have taken game one. Poor setup around the 4th dragon delayed the take and gave another five minutes to the hyper scaling Team WE team comp to get online. Game two Invictus tempted fate giving over Ornn and Aphelios again.
I kind of went off on Twitter about Invictus. They’re like a hopeless addict. They can’t quit Aatrox and they refuse to believe that they can’t beat Ornn+Aphelios. The combination is extremely powerful and asks one of the most potent “deal with this or else” type questions available in the game but it is beatable. I understand where Invictus is at, I really do. I’ve experienced this stubborn rage in my own play over the years but most of the time you just have to admit defeat and ban a pick that you can’t deal with, or better yet join and play it yourself. Invictus refuse to. TheShy can play Ornn. Just do it.
Rookie is doing everything humanly possible to carry this team right now and unfortunately it’s just not enough at the moment. Invictus are going to beat the bad teams because they do have players that are orders of magnitude better and can get away with it but they really need to look themselves in the mirror and question whether this is the way forward right now. Their schedule over the next few matches is difficult. Invictus could start off 1-4 or 0-5 in the blink of an eye.
A note for Team WE: you better find a way to deal with Syndra against good mid laners. It completely nullifies Teacherma’s entire identity as a player and beats up on his champion pool. When he isn’t able to get priority and roam out of lane you turn him into just another regular mid laner. That’s his game and it’s a huge part of what’s making Team WE successful. Either develop a plan for it or start banning it against elite mid laners. That or it might be time to start considering other choices for your mid lane. I know they own this series, it doesn’t mean I can’t see red flags. Don’t be results oriented.
Daily Total Net: -1.375 units
Speaking of results oriented… I recorded a video with John yesterday about results oriented thinking that I feel is pertinent right now, and always. Check that out. The cold run continues but with more data points for myself as a film analyst and more numbers going into the models, things should start to be sorting themselves out a bit. This has been the single worst week from an ROI perspective since I’ve been keeping record (3.5 years). Does that entitle me to a turnaround or say that I’m “due for a good run”? Absolutely not. You are entitled to nothing. All I can do is continue my evaluation, keep up the grind and chip away at the deficit. We’ve caught some unbelievably bad variance but it’s all part of the game.
Think long term, don’t let results alter your process.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 5
Royal Never Give Up -588 (-1.5 maps @ -143) vs
LNG Esports +395 (+1.5 maps @ +112, -1.5 maps @ +847)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)
RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming
LNG – Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan
RNG are 7-7 (5-9 ATS) as favorites in 2020
RNG are 2-0 (2-0 ATS) as favorites in Summer
LNG are 3-9 (6-6 ATS) as underdogs in 2020
RNG won the first meeting 2-0 on April 13th
LNG are going to be the hot underdog pick here since they just beat FPX but watching the film in that series will reveal that FPX more or less beat themselves and badly. Even in their game one win, which they could have closed in under 25 minutes, they overzealously dove mid tier two and allowed LNG back into the game. Perhaps it was a bit of a Mid-Season Cup hangover but I don’t think LNG really abused a film advantage from watching that tournament or anything as much as FPX had a very poor day executing.
This team has a track record of success but bad days happen to everyone. That was something like a <5% range of outcomes situation in terms of their in-game performance. It’s rare to see them miss the skill shots and screw up dives like they did. LNG didn’t do a lot to create in this game, the win was more or less spoon-fed to them.
The reason this is relevant is because RNG have been utterly dominant this season and look like the best team in the LPL through the first two weeks. New has been a surprise in the top lane, Xiaohu looks like a man on a mission and Ming has been reminding the world why he’s been one of the best supports on the planet over the past few years and that it wasn’t just Uzi (he really is one of the best ever by the way).
Unless RNG take this series off they’re going to completely dominate LNG. The RNG 2-0 is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome to this series and we’re getting a value at just -143.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 25.4 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 25.06 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 26.18 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case LNG, 27.5 kills.
RNG have covered the kill spread in all four games so far (-3.5 in both) and 3 out of 4 have gone under. The underdog has gone under their team total in every match against RNG as well (Vici and OMG). RNG have won by 15, 17, 9, and 13 for an aMOV of 13.5
The under game time has now won 22 out of 33 games but only 3 out of 7 times at 32:00 but RNG have an average game time of 27.34 minutes so far this season.
Favorite team totals have hit just 14 out of 33 tries so we’ll be passing there although RNG have hit 3 out of 4.
Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -143 (1.43 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 RNG -8.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 RNG -8.5 kills @ +111 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -118 (0.59 units)
FunPlus Phoenix -526 (-1.5 maps @ -149) vs
BiliBili Gaming +365 (+1.5 maps @ +117, -1.5 @ +856)
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -108 / +8.5 @ -122
Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -119)
FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
BLG – Kingen, l3est16, FoFo, Wings, XinMo
FPX are 14-6 (9-10 ATS) as favorites in 2020
BLG are 4-6 (8-2 ATS) as underdogs in 2020
FPX won the first meeting 2-1 as -260 favorites on March 25th
Meteor doesn’t get the start again. I’m not panicking for BLG yet but I’m not starting to become concerned that something is going on behind the scenes here.
BLG were completely run over by Vici in their first meeting and unfortunately things don’t get any easier with FPX coming fresh off of a loss. I’m not opposed to the idea that this could end up being a good move for BiliBili but in the short term it feels like they’re sort of surrendering the early season in hopes of once again having a late season surge. They’re not a bad roster with this iteration but it’s just strange timing to me especially after being so thoroughly dominated in your first match.
Unless you think FPX are going to have a longer slump I just don’t see BiliBili taking this down. I for one think FPX have too much pride and after that terrible performance they’re going to be motivated to put BLG in the dumpster. Underdog spreads hit at a great clip last season but we’re going double chalk today.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 25.05 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 24.9 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 25.84 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case BLG, 26.63 kills.
The first time these two met there were 51 kills in three games for 17 kills per game.
I don’t want to extrapolate based on a single game with the new players. I don’t know how BLG are going to want to play with this lineup. If it’s more like what they did with Meteor I’d actually like the over even though the last series didn’t pan out that way but with the new guys I’d probably lean more toward the under. Against teams I qualified as “poor” in the Spring, FPX had a combined kills per game of just short of 21. They tend to take care of business against bad teams unless it was Rogue Warriors who boosted that total over the 20 mark by themselves. I like the under for a half stake here.
Underdog kill spreads have been doing quite well because underdogs have been doing well winning 6 out of 14 matches outright so far this season as well as 7-7 ATS. Underdog spreads of +6.5 or greater have hit in just 5 out of 11 opportunities. I was expecting better numbers on this and I usually like dog spreads with low or projected under totals but we’ll pass here.
Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -112 (0.28units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ +107 (0.22 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -108 (0.27 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +113 (0.23 units)
LEC Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 1
The LEC and LCS will be less detailed and more about roster evaluation and projection until we get to see more of these teams. Since best-of-ones are more variant than series, I use half the unit size I do for the Eastern leagues. You don’t have to follow suit but I’ll be writing with the typical staking plan in mind. It will be light for the first few weeks unless I feel strongly about a position especially because there is increased vig across the board on this week one slate.
One big picture point I wanted to discuss was favorites in the LEC last split. Favorites were an overwhelming 67-23 in the LEC regular season in Spring and if you blind bet every single favorite, usually a disastrous proposition, you would have only been -1.23% ROI even against increased vig. That’s pretty ridiculous. Do I think we’ll see that again? Probably not, but you should be aware that the favorites had a lot of success last season.
MAD Lions +210 vs G2 Esports -278
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -128 / under -101)
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 17.5
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -103 / -6.5 @ -127
Time Total: OTB
The biggest upset of the Spring was the MAD Lions knocking G2 into the losers bracket in their first playoff loss in two years. G2 still went on to win the split in dominating fashion. Some money has come in on this as it opened at G2 -333. I typically like underdogs in week one with extra time to prepare weird strategies they’re usually sharp and I anticipate MAD Lions to be a continuously improving team this season but G2 are going to little brother the hell out of them in this spot. G2 didn’t have a -6.5 kill spread against anybody besides Fnatic last split. This is a rare opportunity. G2 had an AMOV of 11.41 in Spring. I’ll take the G2 kill spread. With such a high total I’m tempted to take the under but as we all know, G2 games can get really wild so we’ll stick to just the kill spread.
Kill Spread: G2 -6.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)
Team Vitality +141 vs FC Schalke 04 -182
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -108 / -5.5 @ -122
Time Total: OTB
I’m expecting improvement from both of these teams but a big improvement from Schalke who looked deserving of a playoff spot at the end of last season. Normally this would be a spot where I like an underdog like Vitality but I’m just going to pass on the side here as this line feels just about right and stick to a modest -5.5 kill spread.
Kill Spread: Schalke -5.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)
Origen -625 vs SK Gaming +412
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -128 / under -102)
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -102 / +8.5 @ -127
Time Total: OTB
Origen play squeaky clean League of Legends but we did see an outburst by them in the playoffs. Perhaps a sign of things to come? Either way, SK project as the worst team in the league to me and Origen rarely lose to non-Fnatic/G2 teams in the LEC over the past two years. They’re the gatekeepers. +412 is appetizing in a best of one but I’m going to opt for the OVER on the low total and the Origen kill spread.
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -8.5 kills @ -102 (0.51 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -9.5 kills @ +125 (0.3 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -10.5 kills @ +157 (0.1 units)
Kill Spread: Origen -11.5 kills @ +193 (0.1 units)
Rogue -213 vs Excel Esports +164
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111
Time Total: OTB
These two teams are part of a middle of the pack that should be highly competitive battling for the final two or three playoff positions. Generally I feel they’re all similarly rated even if I prefer one over the other for various reasons. This line is too large. I think Rogue are a better team overall but Excel got rid of their biggest problem player in Mickey in exchange for the serviceable Special. Top laner Kryze is the big question mark in his debut.
I like the underdog in this near 50-50 matchups in best-of-ones between similar teams.
Moneyline: Excel +164 (1 unit)
Misfits +190 vs Fnatic -250
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -128 / -7.5 @ -102
Time Total: OTB
A lot of people are optimistic about Misfits with the addition of Kobbe to fill a need at ADC but I don’t think this is the spot. Fnatic haven’t always been the fastest starters but to me the top gap in this series is just too massive and Fnatic know how to capitalize on it. Bwipo is arguably the best top laner (or Wunder) and Dan Dan was probably the worst or second worst last season. I give Fnatic the edge on the rest of the map too. Fnatic are a world class team and I think Misfits are coming into this series just a tad overrated.
Moneyline: Fnatic -250 (1.25 units)
Kill Spread: Fnatic -7.5 kills @ -102 (0.51 units)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 1
Unlike the LEC, the LCS was friendly to underdogs who hit in 39 out of 90 opportunities. Blind bettors on every single underdog would have ended up with an impressive +12.81% ROI. I expect the middle of the table to be competitive but the elite teams to continue dominating including one new one to join the party that we’ll talk about tomorrow.
100 Thieves +141 vs Evil Geniuses -182
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -133 / -5.5 @ +103
Time Total: OTB
I don’t like this 100 Thieves roster nearly as much as my colleagues and I think we’ll see an Evil Geniuses that was more like the second half version for the majority of this season. The key matchups here are the solo lanes. Jiizuke has a huge advantage in the mid lane while Ssumday has an even larger one in the top lane. I like a half stake on the EG kill spread, I think they take this down, 100 Thieves aren’t as good as they finished last season and EG are. This is admittedly a bit of a gut handicap, tail at your own caution.
I’ve already bet every single over in the LCS as I think these numbers are way too low given the current metagame and champion environment. The LCS was a low kill league last season but I’d expect an improvement across the board as well as metagame influences to push kill totals up from their low totals last season.
Kill Spread: Evil Geniuses -5.5 kills @ +103 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: OVER 22.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)
FlyQuest +327 vs Cloud 9 -476
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -108)
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -122 / -8.5 @ -106
Time Total: OTB
The playoff rematch! Cloud 9 are still the class of the LCS and FlyQuest are going to have to show me that they can keep up with the inflation of everybody else improving around them. They more or less “sucked less” than everyone else last split and combined with an MVP performance from POE it was enough to get them second. That won’t be the case this season. Still this team is good they’re just not on the same level as Cloud 9.
Since Cloud 9 had some short wins last season their AMOV is actually not as big as you’d think. I’m going to opt for an alternate total here. They covered a -6.5 in 21 out of 26 victories.
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -6.5 kills @ -167 (1.67 units)
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)
Thursdays and Fridays are going to be insane for me as a writer during the season but here’s our first taste! Enjoy the Friday slate and for those competing in the DK Championship good luck and I hope this helps!