Thursday, July 2nd Recap

 

Rogue Warriors vs OMG (Net: +0.335 units)

This series ended up more competitive than I thought it would be. I figured there was at least a chance that RW’s recent “not awful” performances could be a sign but OMG were definitely the right side here. Whiffed on the map spread but we’ll take this.

JDG vs Team WE (Net: -0.05 units)

This was an awesome series. Even though game three turned into a blowout, the fight that turned it into that was so close and thanks to a clutch play from LvMao I had a nice day on the DFS end and avoided a pretty big loss. Team WE remain steadfast and teams continue to try to go over top of them, even good teams. I wonder if it’s just a symptom or preparation or what but it’s fascinating.

LPL Total: +0.285 units

 

Afreeca vs Hanwha Life (Net: +1.02 units)

In game one, Kiin and Spirit shoved CuVee so far into his locker that I’m not sure if we’ll ever find him again. Dudu put up a fight but it wasn’t much better. It makes me so happy to see Kiin back in form just annihilating people again. He’s one of the best individual players in the world and it was a real bummer that he somewhat checked out toward the end of last season with his team playing so poorly.

Meanwhile, Hanwha Life…

Dumpster Fire GIF | Gfycat

 

I’m running out of quality dumpster fire gifs. If you, or a loved one has any spare ones lying around…

I really do feel bad for Viper and Lehends who continue to put in admirable performances but I’m just not sure how long it’s going to be before they quit on this team and check out. You hate to see it. 🙁

 

DragonX vs Team Dynamics (Net: -0.865 units)

ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ノ raise your dongers

Deokdam busted out the Heimerdinger in game one which was super lit and it looked like it was finally about to work if it wasn’t for that meddling world class team on the other side.

Game one was a pretty fun one that could have either way. Game two opened close before DragonX really just ran away with it. Don’t hold this one against Team Dynamics, DragonX are insanely good.

 

LCK Total: +0.155 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: +0.44 units

 

Not the sexiest day by any stretch but it was close to being a good amount better. We’ll take the green.

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 5

 

TOP Esports -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -270) vs

LNG Esports +767 (+1.5 maps @ +203, -1.5 @ +1002)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -109 / +9.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

LNG  – Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan

 

The side in this contest simply boils down to whether or not you think TOP check out for a game or mess around a little too hard. We’ve seen that LNG are capable of taking a game home if it’s handed to them on a silver platter but they haven’t really been able to create on their own in all but one of their wins. You’re getting +203 for LNG to take a game and if you think it’s game one, which is the most likely, you can get +307. I don’t hate it but I’m just going to stay out of the way on this one.

I do, however, like the kill spreads on this one. TOP have only had an 8.66 kill average margin of victory (aMOV) and this spread would have covered in 7 of their 12 victories. LNG have an average margin of defeat (aMOD) of just 8.42 which is actually a fair amount better than the league average 9.48 (composite). It makes sense. LNG lose without much of a fight a lot of the time. I’ll take the +9.5s.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.06

Time-projected: 24.89

Odds Weighted: 23.63

Underdog Win: 29.94

“G” Projected Total: 24.2 kills

If TOP weren’t taking their sweet time winning I’d consider an under but they sometimes like to go slow and steady, as they should.

TOP game times: 31.97 / 34.98 / 33.81 (average / in wins / in losses)

LNG game times: 32.69 / 34.72 / 31.76 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.33 minutes

Odds Weighted: 33.47 minutes

No markets posted. Would probably lean to the under.

Other Markets:

First Blood: TOP 50% / LNG 56.25%

First Tower: TOP 47.05% / LNG 29.41%

First Dragon: TOP 52.94% / LNG 41.18%

 

Slim pickins….

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 LNG +9.5 kills @ -125 (0.625 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 LNG +9.5 kills @ -127 (0.635 units)

 

 

Vici Gaming +104 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +274) vs

eStar -133 (-1.5 maps @ +228)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -119 / -1.5 @ -110

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

Vici – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Hang

eStar – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC

 

These two teams are very similar and two teams that I expect will finish the season strong. They’ve been doing a lot of the right things and it just hasn’t quite rolled their way, especially Vici Gaming. To me, this is simply that eStar are a better team than Vici and do what they want to do better. I like eStar quite a bit in this spot even though the model and statistics suggest little to no value. eStar just look better on film to me.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.63

Time-projected: 24.77

Odds-Weighted: 25.45

Underdog Win: 22.97

“G” Projected Total: 24.95 kills

 

Vici game times: 31.32 / 30.29 / 31.91 (average / in wins / in losses)

eStar game times: 31.96 / 31.89 / 32.01 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.64 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.55 minutes

 

Other markets:

First Blood: eStar 46.66% / Vici 72.73%

First Tower: eStar 70.58% / Vici 35.29%

First Dragon: eStar 58.82% / Vici 41.18%

There’s enough value on the eStar first tower to make a play. The argument against it is that they’ve only captured the first herald in 7 out of 15 matches which works against this number. I still think this is worth a small shot. Vici first blood is worth considering but they’ve also faced a handful of opponents who are toward the bottom of the league in the category and I think eStar will really take it to them anyway.

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: eStar -133 (1.33 units)

Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +228 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ -137 (0.685 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ -137 (0.685 units)

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 3 – Day 3

 

I’ll be moving toward using more data as the LCK season progresses but the sample size is still fairly small for most of these teams and I will remain film-centric for the time being.

 

KT Rolster -175 (-1.5 maps @ +170) vs

SeolHaeOne Prince +137 (+1.5 maps @ -222, -1.5 maps @ +367)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -115

Time Total: OTB

 

I know the English broadcast aren’t quite as down on Prince as I am but the only thing this team has going for it is that they aren’t stupid. Unfortunately, they just don’t have the manpower to compete in this league. Unlike last season where everyone took some time to figure things out and APK took advantage of it, the metagame is more wide open and teams have specialized quite a bit. Everything is more finely tuned while Prince don’t look to have done the same.

KT Rolster are shaking the rust off for a few veterans but I’d expect them to round into form and compete for the last playoff spots.

If you think KT might take a bit more time to get there then I could see the justification in the underdog. I just think KT are going to be ahead of schedule. They’ve already improved leaps and bounds and have played a challenging schedule which included DAMWON, Gen.G, and Team Dynamics (also a softball in Hanwha).  I also think that SeolHaeOne are more or less going to be the LNG of the LCK, hoping opponents make mistakes while hopefully avoiding their own.

I think KT stomp this series.

I like the over but I’m also aware that the numbers for SP are still heavily skewed from their first series, an absolute fiesta with Hanwha Life that had 99 kills over 3 games. Totals are an even 29-29 this season to the over/under. I’ll pass until we see more.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: KT Rolster -175 (1.75 units)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +170 (0.5 units)

 

 

T1 -119 (-1.5 maps @ +258) vs

Gen.G -108 (+1.5 maps @ -357, -1.5 @ +262)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 10.5

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -110 / +0.5 @ -119

Time Total: OTB

 

T1 won the regular season 2-1 both times in Spring before completely thrashing Gen.G 3-0 in one of the most lopsided finals in LCK history. For what it’s worth, I do think T1 came into that series red hot and Gen.G had to sit on the sidelines and it showed. I do think that was in the lower range of outcomes for this team.

Gen.G have looked outstanding this season. Realistically they should have 2-1’d DragonX and their only other game losses are to DAMWON and KT Rolster. They’ve completely destroyed the two bad teams they’ve faced and actually showed some attitude styling on them in the process.

I think both of these teams are still in the elite tier at the top of the LCK. Both have looked great on film and while I’d lean toward Gen.G in this spot ever so slightly, there’s not enough value to justify it. Get the popcorn out this will be a good one.

 

My Picks:

 

no wagers

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 4 – Day 1

 

LEC Trends:

Favorites are 20-15 straight up

Favorites are 15-20 against the kill spread

Kill totals have gone under in 24 out of 35 games (68.57%)

Favorites have covered their team total 55% of the time

Time Totals have gone under 60% of the time

 

 

Vitality -130 vs Excel +105

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -111 / +3.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5

Time Total: OTB

 

John made this his pick of the week on The Gold Card Podcast and Josh called this a Vince Carter “Le Dunk de la Mort” level slam. Even if you’re bullish on Vitality and bearish on Excel the absolute worst this line should be is even money. Excel have the advantage at every position besides mid lane including a fairly drastic advantage in the bottom lane.

Don’t over think this one.

I’d lean very slightly to the over in this one but not enough to make a play on it.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel +105 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: Excel -0.5 kills @ +116 (0.5 units)

 

MAD Lions -588 vs Schalke 04 +383

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -120 / +8.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

 

Do we think MAD Lions are going to stray a little too far off the deep end? I don’t think so. Schalke have been one of the worst teams in the four major leagues this season and while I do expect at least some amount of improvement, it won’t be enough to make up for the gap here. With that said, 8.5 is a very large number to cover and offers the favorite very little wiggle room. I also like the under quite a bit here. MAD Lions have been putting up some gawdy numbers, particularly for those of us involved in DFS but Schalke have not. Perhaps they’ll bring a little extra energy to this one but something tells me MAD are just going to put this one to bed. Even if they play something weird I think it’s more likely than not to be some sort of poke or split push concept to exercise those muscles.

I like the under and because of that, I like the Schalke kill spread as well.  Sprinkle a little on the moneyline, weird things happen and it’s a best-of-one.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Schalke +8.5 @ -109 (0.545 units)

Moneyline: Schalke +383 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -116 (0.58 units)

 

Fnatic -333 vs SK Gaming +242

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -109 / +7.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals:  14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: OTB

I’d encourage you to check out the podcast for this one. We talked at length about Fnatic and this matchup specifically.

This isn’t a fade of Fnatic whatsoever. I think they’ll be completely fine by the end of the season and the reaction to their past two weeks is not only misinformed but completely overblown as well. Don’t overreact. These are best-of-ones and the league is competitive. This team has dominated for years, a couple weird weeks doesn’t change that.

Consider this an endorsement of SK Gaming. I love this way this team is playing. They’re just smart and fundamentally sound which is my kind of LOL. Crownshot has been an absolute maniac this season as well.

I like a split stake on the SK kill spread and moneyline. I don’t hate the SK team total over either but this is enough exposure on a big dog.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: SK Gaming +7.5 kills @ -120 (0.75 units)

Moneyline: SK Gaming +242 (0.25 units)

 

 

Rogue +107 vs Origen -137

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -104 / -3.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

These teams are more or less mirror images of one another. Origen are experimenting a little bit more this season but that’s a relative statement. This is still “by the book” Origen. Rogue have been playing out of their mind of late and it’s pretty difficult to deny a shot at the underdog for a team that’s looked so good.

Ultimately I would have been on whoever was the plus money in this series as I think it’s a coinflip. I lean toward Origen based on personal preference but not enough to not take a shot on Rogue. If this was the other way around I’d be on Origen.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Rogue +107 (1 unit)

 

Misfits +155 vs G2 Esports -200

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -104 / -5.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

 

P1noy is starting for Perkz this weekend who is taking some time off after the passing of his father a couple weeks ago. This was G2 -286 last night when we recorded the show and we still liked G2 even with P1noy in. I’m not buying this Misfits team at all. Dan Dan finally had a decent game but has otherwise been a liability this season and Febiven will have his work cut out for him against Caps. G2 are just better across the board and I don’t really think P1noy changes much.

It’s possible that they have a weird strategy prepared for this weekend but I’d guess G2 are going to play stock-standard LOL with meta picks which they rarely do… and they still stomp.

Give me the G2 alt spreads I think this is a huge overreaction and we’re getting more value on them since the moneyline shrank.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: G2 Esports -5.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Spread: G2 Esports -7.5 kills @ +125 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: G2 Esports -8.5 kills @ +146 (0.25 units)

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 4 – Day 1

 

I will write on the LCS tomorrow afternoon.

 

100 Thieves -106 vs Golden Guardians -120

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -110 / -2.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

 

We’re going to get to see the new look 100 Thieves with Contractz making his return to pro play and prospect Poome making his debut. There was a ton of drama about these moves that we talked about on the podcast this week but generally these moves don’t move the needle much in either direction for me. Meteos wasn’t doing as poorly as perception would dictate. The jungler is always going to look terrible when the team is losing especially in this current metagame with the inability to catch up from a deficit. Meteos was actually doing a really good job of maintaining his economy and experience level even when his team was losing which is impressive. Contractz has been serviceable but unexciting. Poome is the big question.

To me, Golden Guardians are my favorite of the bottom half teams and I think they’ll end up making playoffs but the nature of how they’ve been playing doesn’t exactly lead to a lot of consistency game-to-game. It makes them good underdogs but unreliable favorites. I’d lean to Golden Guardians but I’m passing on a side here.  I think this is going to turn into Ssumday carry vs Damonte carry and I just think it’s easier to do out of the mid lane in general but I also think the change of pace could be good for 100 Thieves.

 

My Picks:

no wager

 

 

Counter Logic Gaming +557 vs Cloud 9 -1000

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -114 / -9.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

 

I typically love taking a shot on huge kill spreads when we have low totals or hitting the over on the underdog team total but Cloud 9 are just on another level that I’m not excited about it. It’s not often that you get a +500 or more underdog in a best-of-one format and it feels wrong not to take a shot on it but I’ll just stick to the kill spread here. Half stake. Hold your nose, put the ticket in. Too hard to pass up +9.5 with a 21.5 total especially when CLG’s season long delta between kills/deaths per loss is 8.5. There are enough split push strategies that are viable that we might see something like that from C9 which makes this look even more appealing.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: CLG +9.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)

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