Thursday, July 30th Recap

 

Suning vs TOP Esports (Net: +2.71 units)

If this wasn’t an indication that Suning are legit then I don’t know what is. Straight up, we got lucky here. TOP should have lost both of these games, especially game one. It took a tiny mistake and then a slow to the punch setup for elder drake to turn this for TOP against Suning’s Infernal Soul buff but they managed to get it done in game one. They did have the superior scaling but Suning had done just about everything right to close before a tiny mistake sieging mid which turned into the aforementioned slow setup. Game two was pretty close and once again in Suning’s control albeit less so because they didn’t get any dragons with their gold lead and map leverage. Little lack of discipline there. If they were able to turn any of this advantage into a dragon or two they probably stall this out and win on the back of Huanfeng’s Aphelios in the later game.

Suning played incredibly well in this series besides a few small mistakes but that’s all it takes against a team like TOP. Didn’t get a drake off a won fight? TOP punishes. Five seconds slow to a setup? TOP punishes. This team is still really good and it takes a lot to take them down but the bigger story here was Suning. I do think this was more Suning playing well than TOP playing poorly but JackeyLove better start playing a little more respectful because that’s been three or four series in a row now where he’s had poor situational awareness. I’m not sure if TOP just want to coast to playoffs or what but they definitely got away with one here. I’m not too worried at the end of the day but just thought it was worth mentioning.

Victory Five vs Team WE  (Net: +0.52 units)

I mentioned that one of the things I like about this Victory Five team is that, while they’re a significantly better team when they’re in their element doing what they like to be doing, their uptempo style, they’re not completely linear and are able to make adaptations. WE jumped out and smashed them in game one but Victory Five came back with a very on-brand Renekton+Olaf+Syndra+Ashe bot. Shove in all three lanes, let Weiwei become a monster and play around great lane priority. Game three’s draft was magnificent from V5 taking the Tahm Kench+Senna+Gangplkank core to nullify the effects of both Twisted Fate and Morgan’s Mordekaiser. Group as five and won.

Team WE aren’t a bad team by any means but I’ve been saying for weeks now that they’ve got to show me something else. Teacherma needs to show some control mage play. More Syndra, Zoe, Orianna. They’re just too predictable right now. They’re good at what they do but if you’re an NFL team that has the best running game in the league and you never pass the ball teams are just going to stack the box and it doesn’t matter how good you are except against bad teams.

LPL Total: +3.23 units

 

Afreeca vs Hanwha Life  (Net: -1.02 units)

Not much to say here. Afreeca shoved yet another nerd in a locker.

 

DragonX vs DAMWON  (Net: -0.86 units)

This was a very lopsided looking series but sometimes that happens when good teams face each other. It doesn’t mean the other team is suddenly bad just because they got blown out. Good teams blow teams out regardless of who it is pretty often, don’t let this loss affect your judgement on DragonX too badly. That said, it shouldn’t be ignored either.

DragonX tried the Heimderdinger counter to Aphelios (Aphelios base magic resist is extremely low so Heimer can more or less one shot her OR poke her out of lane) but it felt a little forced to me and handicapped the rest of their team composition just a bit too much. In game one I would have preferred to see a Lucian from Chovy over the Camille who is going to have absolutely no control over the Zoe in lane. Sure in late game fights ult and kill her but if you’re behind then that doesn’t matter. Game two they had a solid setup, two shoving lanes and potentially a third depending on how Chovy handles the matchup vs Galio. I liked their comp here but DWG outplayed a few skirmishes and the overall combination of Senna+Karthus was just too much damage/healing to deal with for the mid game centric, low range composition of DRX.

Again, I don’t think this drastically downgrades DragonX but it’s impressive to see DAMWON finally smash a good team.

LCK Total: -1.88 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: +1.35 units

 

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 9 – Day 5

 

 

Royal Never Give Up -625 (-1.5 maps @ -154) vs

Dominus Esports +399 (+1.5 maps @ +121, -1.5 @ +901)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -119 / +7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +103 / under -141)

Starting Lineups:

RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, GALA, Ming

DMO – Chelizi, Xiaopeng, Twila, Xubin, Yui

Trends:

RNG are 4-4 straight up, 3-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -220)

RNG are 8-11 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.1)

RNG are 1-3 straight up, 1-3 against the map spread in their past four appearances as favorites

Dominus are 1-10 straight up, 4-7 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +501)

Dominus are 13-12 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +7.68)

 

As frustrating and two-faced as RNG have been this season and wanting to fade them sweeping a series for that reason, I think they’ll take care of business with their season on the line here. Dominus are feisty but just straight up bad. They grade out as the worst team in the LPL by a pretty large margin and one of the worst teams in the major leagues at the moment. That said, I do like props and kill spreads when the numbers get large like this. Since 7.5 isn’t particularly great I’ll probably be attacking dog props here.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.15

Time-projected: 27.21

Odds Weighted: 27.0

Underdog Win: 26.31

“G” Projected Total: 26.79 kills

This projects to an over bet but it largely depends on your risk tolerance. There’s a chance RNG run these games over so quickly that it doesn’t quite get there. Kill totals have gone UNDER in 15 out of 25 games where DMO were underdogs (most) but only 8 out of 19 for RNG as favorites so that’s a bit tricky. Especially of late, RNG have been playing lower scoring games and given that their season is on the line and they must win this I’d expect them not to clown around and win this cleanly. Go against the numbers and take the under unless you think the “nothing to lose” Dominus gentlemen can make this a fun one.

 

RNG game times: 32.4 / 32.04 / 32.76 (average / in wins / in losses)

DMO  game times: 31.71 / 32.89 / 31.41 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.06 minutes

Odds Weighted:  31.93 minutes

Similar to above it depends on your taste. RNG tend to win via snowballing quickly so unless you think they’re way WAY overcautious because of the pressure this will probably go under. With the juice on it I’ll just pass and lean under.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: RNG 70.97% / DMO 50%

First Tower: RNG 48.38% / DMO 33.33%

First Dragon: RNG 54.84% / DMO 46.67%

First Herald:  RNG 41.94% / DMO 36.67%

There’s actually quite a bit of value in the RNG first blood and they’ve remained consistently good in that category over the course of the season. These aren’t as poorly priced as I was hoping for Dominus but I will be taking the value on first herald for them.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 1 DMO first herald @ +117 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 DMO first herald @ +117 (1 unit)

 

 

 

LGD -182 (-1.5 maps @ +171) vs

Vici Gaming +140 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +362)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +121 / under -159)

Starting Lineups:

LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

VG – Cube, Aix, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro

Trends:

LGD are 6-2 straight up, 2-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -310)

LGD have been swept as favorites twice (Suning, Rogue Warriors)

LGD are 12-8 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.75)

Vici are 2-4 straight up, 3-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +217)

Vici are 8-7 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.67)

Favorites have only covered their team total in 8 out of 15 appearances against Vici (avg total: 14.5)

 

LGD continue to be the same team one that you can trust to consistently get ahead in games but not one that you can trust to close as evidenced yet again by their previous series. They’re also not a team you can trust to figure things out from a deficit although we did see them pull a backdoor win against FPX being ridiculously indecisive in that series. I think LGD are pretty good and well-suited to season ten League of Legends but I also think they’re tremendously overrated too. The economy/objective model agrees placing LGD at 7th in a tier with Victory Five, WE, and EDG. Again, numbers don’t tell the full story but I do think it’s sobering to see. Recently, LGD haven’t even been as dominant in earning their early leads against FPX, RNG, WE, EDG, and RW… that’s not an easy schedule but it’s not exactly difficult either. Eight teams are ahead of them in my early game economy metric and for a team that’s relied pretty heavily on that over the course of the season it’s fairly fortunate that they’ve managed to pull a few of these wins out.

Vici have also faced an easier schedule in their past three of Dominus, OMG, EDG but faced TOP, JDG, and FPX prior to that. In the model which blends season long and trending performance over two different time frames, Vici grade out higher than LGD in every metric except baron control and end of game GPR which makes sense given that LGD have won more games of late. Most of the advantages Vici have like in gold differential at 10, 15, and 20, herald control, modified EGR and OBJR (objective rating) are substantial.

Both of these teams are far from perfect but LGD’s issues are systemic, Vici’s are execution based. It’s much easier to fix execution errors and Vici have not been executing at the level they should be and are STILL ahead in a lot of these metrics. On film I think Vici are a better overall team, they’re more versatile and make better adaptations within a game and a series than LGD who just march out the same concepts every game. Both of these teams are capable snowballing teams so I could see this being lopsided in one way or the other.

Even if you’re extremely bearish on Vici and bullish on LGD I think you have to question this pricing. To me these teams are AT WORST -120 / +100. Personally I think Vici are the better and team and should be favored but I can understand looking at the records and thinking otherwise. I absolutely love Vici in this spot if you couldn’t tell. MY model grades them out a half tier stronger than LGD by the numbers and to me the film doesn’t tell a much different story. If their execution is on point I don’t think this is particularly close, if it’s lacking they could still win this series because of LGD’s poor decision making.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.4

Time-projected: 25.27

Odds-Weighted: 25.495

Underdog Win:  23.67

“G” Projected Total: 25.05 kills

I’d lean to the over but I’m going to pass because I have a feeling this is going to be a collection of snowballed games in one direction or the other and unders tend to be the play unless it’s an overwhelmingly bad number.

 

LGD game times: 33.17 / 31.83 / 34.78 (average / in wins / in losses)

VG game times: 32.09 / 30.87 / 33.11 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.63 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.61 minutes

The projection likes an under here but I think both of these teams tend to win quickly (and lose slowly, of note). I’ll be passing because of the juice balancing out the position.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: LGD 51.52% / VG 51.52%

First Tower: LGD 60.6% / VG 57.57%

First Dragon: LGD 33.33% / VG 45.45%

First Herald:  LGD 48.48% / VG 63.64%

I’ll be taking Vici first tower at plus money, first dragon, and first herald. I’ll also be taking the under 4.5 drakes again because of the snowbally nature of these two teams when they’re operating as intended.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Vici +1.5 maps @ -222 (4.44 units)

Moneyline: Vici +140 (2 units)

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +362 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +139 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 VG first tower @ +102 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 VG first tower @ -101 (1.01 units)

Prop: Map 1 VG first dragon @ -106 (1.06 units)

Prop: Map 2 VG first dragon @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 1 VG first herald @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 2 VG first herald @ -102 (1.02 units)

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 2

 

 

The “Telecom War” – Part 2

KT Rolster +249 (+1.5 maps @ -125, -1.5 @ +606) vs

T1 -345 (-1.5 maps @ -101)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -128 / -7.5 @ -101

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Trends:

T1 are 7-4 straight up, 4-7 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -666  \m/ )

T1 are 13-14 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.5)

T1 have covered their team total in 14 out of 27 games as favorites (avg total: 12.68)

T1 are 2-2 straight up, 1-3 in their past four matches as favorites (vs TD, KT, GEG, HLE)

In their past four matches as favorites, T1 are 3-7 against the kill spread

KT are 2-5 straight up, 4-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +233)

KT are 9-9 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.21)

KT have covered their team total in 11 out of 18 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.36)

 

Perhaps the week off will allow for T1 to shake off some of the cobwebs because they’ve been asleep at the wheel of late dropping a game and nearly more to Hanwha Life and looking just “off” in general in the past handful of matches. Their drafts have been pretty weird and the hallmark mid and late game decision making that’s made them so good over the years has been absent. Still, this team is good and I’d expect them to show better than they have of late.

KT have been a little shaky at times but are slowly improving as the season goes on mostly taking care of the teams below them and struggling against the elite teams. The LCK is pretty firmly tiered out at this point with a top three, a half tier where T1 are gatekeeping the rest of the league and then a tier of four (Afreeca, KT, Dynamics, and Sandbox) battling for the fifth playoff seed. Those four in the middle should remain competitive against each other and T1 and maybe the elite teams on occasion.

This comes down to whether or not you think T1 “turn it on.” They certainly have enough history of doing so but I think given the recent form for both of these teams and the result of last match which had a really close game two, combined with the regression of T1 and slight progression of KT I think this line is just a bit too rich to not take a stab at the underdogs here. T1 aren’t this much better than the middle of the table teams in their current form and even when they’re at a more expected level I think this line might be a tad rich. I’ll take an underdog special with KT.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 20.83

Time-projected: 21.62

Odds Weighted: 22.63

Underdog Win: 21.14

“G” Projected Total: 21.70 kills

Pretty tight. Pass.

 

T1 game times: 32.84 / 31.34 / 35.0 (average / in wins / in losses)

KT  game times:  33.03 / 33.95 / 32.34 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.93 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.55 minutes

About right, I’ll pass.

I’ll mention on both the totals, if you think this turns into a slugfest like this rivalry sometimes does, then the overs look pretty appealing at plus money on the time and a reasonable 21.5 on the kills. This is an important match, tensions being high could cause it to go sloppy or overcautious.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: T1 55.56% / KT 60.71%

First Tower: T1 48.15% / KT 50%

First Dragon: T1 66.67% / KT 71.43%

First Herald:  T1 33.33% / KT 60.71%

KT props have a lot of value here as well given the large moneyline.

I’ll be taking KT first blood, first tower, and first herald.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -125 (2.5 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +249 (1 unit)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +606 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: KT Rolster +7.5 kills @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Spread: KT Rolster +7.5 kills @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 1 KT first blood @ +103 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 KT first blood @ +104 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 KT first tower @ +104 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 KT first tower @ +101 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 KT first herald @ +130 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 KT first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

 

 

Team Dynamics +102 (+1.5 maps @ -303, -1.5 @ +274) vs

SANDBOX Gaming -130 (-1.5 maps @ +226)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -116 / -1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 35:00 (over +136 / under -179)

Trends:

Sandbox are 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -259)

Sandbox are 5-4 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.25)

Sandbox have covered their team total in 6 out of 9 appearances as favorites

Underdogs have covered their team total in 5 out of 9 appearances vs Sandbox

Dynamics are 2-7 straight up, 4-5 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +355)

Dynamics are 10-11 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.72)

Dynamics have covered the map spread in every match as underdogs against a non-elite team (Gen.G, DRX, DWG)

 

To me this match comes down to film more than anything else. Dynamics have been an excellent film team even if their record hasn’t bared the fruits of their labor. They constantly make great decisions seem to never get away with it anytime they make an error. Simply put they’ve been a little hard up and can’t catch a break. This team is much better than their record and to me it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them make playoffs. My colleagues are much more bullish and I can understand that, I don’t think they’re going to win the LCK or anything like that but it feels to me like this team is being disrespected just a bit. The economy/objective model grades them as the #5 team currently at the top of that middle tier that includes KT, Afreeca, and Sandbox as well. It’s not surprising to me.

Sandbox are a team I expect to continue growing together under the tutelage of Yamato but they’ve shown some warts in their past few series. The KT series was mostly close and while they came out with wins in both SeolHaeOne series, they certainly didn’t look great in four out of five of those games. This team has some suspect decision making at times and while I think their players are pretty good and they’ll improve, I really don’t know why they’re favored here. This is a team that legitimately struggled with SeolHaeOne…. think about that. Dynamics also won the first meeting between these two in a fairly competitive and back-and-forth outing during SANDBOX’s hot streak.

I like Dynamics here. I think they’ve been the better team on film, the model says they’ve been a better team by the numbers, and I just like their roster a little more than Sandbox. These lines should be flipped. Sandbox are only favored because they’re a match win ahead.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.65

Time-projected: 23.79

Odds Weighted: 23.68

Underdog Win: 19.34

“G” Projected Total: 23.37 kills

.While Dynamics’ wins have been low kill I do think that it’s a bit of an aberration. I’d lean over regardless of who you think takes this. You can get 22.5 @ -108 but I’ll be sticking to over 21.5.

 

SB game times: 32.32 / 34.15 / 31.06 (average / in wins / in losses)

DYN  game times:  32.62 / 33.46 / 32.1 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.47 minutes

Odds Weighted:   32.72 minutes

I always hate when the book does this but I’ll be playing their stupid game on this one unfortunately…

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: SB 33.33% / DYN 41.38%

First Tower: SB 55.56% / DYN 48.28%

First Dragon: SB 51.85% / DYN 55.17%

First Herald:  SB 48.14% / DYN 41.37%

Tight pricing here. Pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Dynamics +102 (1.5 units)

Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +274 (0.75 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -179 (1.79 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -175 (1.75 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 1

 

LEC Trends through six weeks:

Favorites are 35-30 straight up, 31-34 against the kill spread

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 35 out of 65 games (avg total: 22.99)

Time Totals have gone OVER in 34 out of 65 games (assumed avg 32:00, frequently OTB)

Favorites have covered their team total in 25 out of 65 games (underdogs 37/65)

 

Most of these trends are in line with the upset laden Summer split.

 

Schalke 04 +119 vs Excel Esports -152

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -116 / -2.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Excel have only been favored once this season (vs Schalke). They won and Schalke covered the kill spread.

Schalke are 3-8 straight up, 5-6 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +282 / +7.23)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 7 out of 11 games where Schalke were underdogs (avg total: 22.14)

Schalke have won both matches as underdogs last week vs G2 and Misfits

 

Excel have been steadily improving as the season has gone on and with Origen, Misfits, G2, Fnatic, and Schalke to finish out their schedule, have a very realistic chance of making the playoffs despite being at 6-7 currently tied with G2 and Origen. The first step in that process is here against Schalke who have looked much better in their past couple of weeks. There are no “free squares” in the LEC. Even the last place team and clear worst if you ask me is still a respectable LOL team that will beat you if you screw up. That said, this line feels a bit like it’s respecting the 2-0 week last week too much. Perhaps being eliminated has loosened things up and taken some of the pressure off of Schalke to allow them to play better, a team with nothing to lose can be dangerous as I always say.

I’m going to be on Excel here. I think they need this win but I’m not going to run wild with it. Schalke could bust out some whacky strategy and catch them off guard in the hopes of playing spoiler. If Excel lose this match then it’s suddenly much more difficult to them to secure a playoff berth so don’t rule it out. They did just go 2-0…

I’ll be splitting my wager between an alternate kill spread and the moneyline.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel -152 (0.76 units)

Kill Spread: Excel -4.5 kills @ +113 (0.5 units)

 

Misfits Gaming +100 vs SK Gaming -127

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -114 / -2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

SK Gaming are 2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the kill spread (same games) as favorites this season (avg odds: -162)

Misfits are 2-5 straight up, 4-3 against the kill spread as underdogs this season (avg odds/spread: +152 / +5.5)

 

This is a tough one to handicap. Both of these teams are remarkably similar not in the way they do things but in their statistics. You could make the argument that this is a more important match for Misfits as it’s tough to see them winning out after a loss but SK are just as motivated with a log jam in the middle of the table.

I looked at this one every which way and there’s just not a great price on anything. If you feel strongly one way or the other in this one go for but I think this is a weighted coin flip toward SK which is exactly what the book has here. Total is spot on too.

My Picks:

 No wagers

 

 

MAD Lions -222 vs Origen +171

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -112 / +4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

MAD are 7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the kill spread (same games) as favorites this season (avg odds/spread: -285/-6.28)

Origen are 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the kill spread (same games) as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +162/+4.75)

 

This one comes down primarily to how you feel on Origen more than you do about MAD. The Lions are what they are. They’re young, sometimes they’re going to be clumsy, but they’re a dominant and dynamic team that are very difficult to beat. Origen have been a bit two-faced this season. If you believe in Origen to get back to their winning ways than this line is too large and I like taking a shot on the underdogs. That’s where I’ll be. I think MAD are the best or second best team in the league right now but I also think the field is closer than a lot of people seem to think. Anybody can beat anybody especially when good teams are involved. I think Origen is better than their record, many do not.

A few of the prop markets are close here but I’m just going to stick to a light moneyline wager on the dogs here.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Origen +171 (0.5 units)

 

Team Vitality +193 vs G2 Esports -256

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -115 / -6.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

G2 are 5-7 straight up, 4-8 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -344/-7.08)

Vitality are 5-6 straight up, 6-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +161/+5.86)

 

This is a bit of a gut handicap because strictly based on statistics and results from this season Vitality are a tremendous value play, especially given that G2 are always inflated as is due to prior performance. I like Vitality too, this team is better than people give them credit for but something just tells me that that win was exactly what the doctor ordered for G2 and they’re going to start rounding into form again.

I’ll be taking a position on the G2 moneyline despite the inflation. I just don’t see how they don’t clutch this out and make a push here.

Full disclosure, this is a gut handicap. If you trust numbers take Vitality kill spreads and a taste of the moneyline.

I also like the under here quite a bit. Given that pretty much every game is going to be a must win for G2 moving forward I doubt we’ll see them messing around or running up the score or even taking many high risk scenarios. 26.5 is an obscenely high total.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Moneyline: G2 -256 (2.56 units)

 

 

Fnatic -125 vs Rogue -102

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -116 / +0.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

 

Isn’t it weird that Fnatic are favored here? Knowing how the books tend to operate with LOL numbers (heavy weight on preseason rating) it’s somewhat sensible but Rogue have been pretty dominant.  We talked a lot about this one on the podcast. It seems that a lot of people think Rogue are, to some degree or another, fraudulent or that they’re going to be “figured out.” I don’t think this is the case at all. Just because they aren’t doing “weird” stuff doesn’t mean they lack versatility or creativity. This team is really damn good.

Fnatic managed to get to a 7-6 while playing toward the bottom range of their potential for the majority of the season. That should speak volumes. If this team can get back to even 80% of their previous form it wouldn’t surprise me to see them in the finals this season.

This is another “gut” handicap spot. I like Rogue quite a bit but I’m steering clear of this Fnatic team. Something tells me they’re going to keep getting better and better. This is also more of a must win than it is for Rogue who have locked playoffs already. That said, if I’m Rogue I’d damn well want to eliminate Fnatic or make their road more difficult if at all possible. I’m staying out of the way on this one. Should be an excellent game, could see it going either way.

I do like the under here as I think this will be a close and competitive matchup. The combined kills per minute for both of these teams averaged and multiplied by implied time total (I used the average game time over past few weeks) came out under. While I don’t always think that’s an accurate measure I do think in these high pressure matchups, particularly with good teams it’s lower scoring more often than not and 24.5 is a reasonably high total for the LEC average this season.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

 

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 1

 

LCS Trends through seven weeks:

Favorites are 47-23 straight up, 27-43 against the kill spread

Kill Totals have gone evenly over/under at 35 out of 70 each

Time totals assuming 32:00 (usually OTB) have gone OVER 38 out of 70 games

Favorites have covered their team total in 31 out of 70 games

Underdogs have covered their team total in 36 out of 70 games

Favorites -250 or larger are 12-20 against the kill spread (avg spread: -7.785)

 

Mostly makes sense. Favorites winning frequently but miserable against the spread due to the low totals and generally medium to high spreads. The big moneyline favorites have been terrible against the spread.

 

Team Liquid -417 vs Dignitas +299

 

Kill Total: 19.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -115 / +7.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 5.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Liquid are 9-1 straight up, 3-7 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -259 / -5.6)

Dignitas are 4-4 straight up, 7-1 against the kill spread since switching to the Dardoch/Fenix roster

 

I’m not holding a loss to FlyQuest against Liquid too much as they’re a solid team. I’m also not throwing out the Cloud 9 win like a lot of people are claiming that “Cloud 9 were cheesing” or anything like that. Liquid appropriately responded when presented with a unique situation in the draft and knew the correct response when Cloud 9 threw the Sona/Lux “you’re not gonna counter it” gauntlet. This team is good. I wouldn’t call them dominant by any means but that’s not the kind of game they’re looking to play. Similar to Rogue in Europe, they don’t really care what you think or how they look they’re just going to play good LOL.

Conveniently that makes Liquid a great target for kill spreads. This matchup almost looks too good to be true on paper. Dignitas are ridiculous against the spread, Liquid are awful. WHAT COULD GO WRONG?!?!?! For real though the kill spread is the play here. Catching 7.5 in a 19.5 total gamefeels like catching two touchdowns in a 36 point total NFL Game. Could Dignitas get shutout? Sure but I’d regret not taking the spread here regardless.

I also like the Dignitas first blood in this spot. Both teams aren’t particularly good in their season long totals but Dig have been much better with Dardoch at the helm and given that they’re evenly matched as it is I’ll take the plus money side.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +7.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Dignitas first blood @ +102 (1 unit)

 

 

Team Solo Mid -139 vs Evil Geniuses +109

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -105 / +3.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

TSM are 8-4 straight up, 4-8 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -205 / -4.8)

Evil Geniuses are 1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the kill spread as underdogs (vs C9 twice, Liquid once)

 

Like Liquid, TSM have won a number of really weird games this season and while you could hold it against them for not closing cleanly, a lot of the time it’s been the correct course of action and a way of playing out of a deficit or a mistake. On one hand we should criticize them but on the other their in-game problem solving should be given at least some amount of credit.

Evil Geniuses have been the hardest team to get a read on this season. Some games they look like a clean, efficient killing machine that could be one of the elite teams in the LCS and in others they look completely lost. Which you’ll get on any given night is anybody’s call but even with this new roster we’ve seen similar tendencies.

I like TSM in this spot. While some of their wins have been ugly they’ve mostly been consistent in who they are, how they want to play, and they’re capable of beating teams even if an individual has a down day (like BrokenBlade in a few recent matches) because they’re stacked with good players that can take over a game. Like Liquid they aren’t sexy but they’re doing what they have to do to win games. I dont’ see TSM winning the split but they do seem a cut above the middle of the pack teams to me.

I’ll also be taking TSM first tower here. Their 78.6% rate is the best in the LCS by a good margin and we’re only being charged 22 cents for it. That’s a steal.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -139 (0.695 units)

Kill Spread: TSM -4.5 kills @ +102 (0.5 units)

Prop: TSM first tower @ -122 (1.22 units)

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