Thursday, July 23rd Recap

 

TOP Esports vs Dominus Esports (Net: -0.19 units)

As expected, Dominus were rather feisty in this one and TOP looked a little unfocused. Covered both our kill spreads but missed out on hitting a map despite a really close second game.

JD Gaming vs LNG Esports (Net: -2.27 units)

It was looking like another “roll over and die” series from LNG but they really must’ve been pissed after the first one and took it to JDG in games two and three to actually make this a bloody and competitive series. If LNG can show like they have in the 5 or 6 games they’ve looked like that this season then this team could be a dark horse moving forward. They should start playing like they’ve got nothing to lose because they don’t at this point.

LPL Total: -2.46 units

 

DragonX vs KT Rolster (Net: +2.675 units)

This went roughly how I expected it to. I like this iteration of KT Rolster even though it doesn’t have Smeb in the lineup. Sohwan is playing really really well this season and they should probably just stick with him as much as it pains me to say it. DragonX got a little sloppy at times in this one but it’s not exactly out of character for them at this point. The fact that this team generates the advantages it does organically and without a high first blood rate as a steroid, it’s just a remind of how good these players are.

Gen.G vs Team Dynamics (Net: -0.12 units)

Gen.G dominated this series despite a sloppy second map but Dynamics still continue to impress me even in losses. They always find a play to make to get themselves back into the game. While it doesn’t always work out, that type of thought process is what you like to see and they do it from both ahead and behind. They’re opportunists and frequently making the +eV play. It will eventually pay dividends even if it hasn’t quite panned out yet.

LCK Total: +2.555 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: +0.095 units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 5

 

 

Suning Gaming +152 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +377) vs

Victory Five -196 (-1.5 maps @ +167)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -119 / -5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +108 / under -141)

Starting Lineups:

V5 – Biubiu, Weiwei, Mole, SamD, ppgod

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

Trends:

V5 are 3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -254)

V5 are 7-3 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5)

V5 have covered their team total 5 out of 10 games as favorites (avg total: 14.25)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 10 games where V5 were favored (avg total: 24.75)

Suning are 3-3 straight up, 4-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +132)

Suning are 7-8 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +4.5)

Suning have covered their team total 8 out of 15 games as underdogs (avg total: 11.17)

 

We talked a lot about this one on this week’s Gold Card Podcast. Suning have quietly been piecing together a hell of a season. At 8-3 they’re more or less locked for playoffs with one more win in their next 5 matches. While they don’t post the gaudiest numbers or results, they’ve won a few odd games with creative shot calling and have just generally been a well-rounded and steady team over the course of the season regardless of who they’re playing against. Their only match losses this season are to EDG, Invictus, and JDG. While they’ve dropped games to eStar and Dominus, they’ve also still taken care of business and closed out those series. Suning are a get it done regardless of how it looks team somewhat in the vein of Liquid in NA.

It’s worth noting that SofM is currently rank #3 on the Korean solo queue ladder (as of last night) which makes a lot of sense given his highly efficient play this season. He’s posted league highs in wards per minute, and wards cleared per minute at the jungler position all while posting above average cs and damage per minute numbers AND he’s done all of this with the 3rd lowest share of his teams gold AND the highest blind pick % (opponents pick jungler after him) rate of the 21 junglers that have played at least 5 games. (Lee Sin can pump ward numbers, he has played 7 games on Lee but it’s not his most played which is Trundle).

Victory Five are coming off of their third series loss, a competitive match against Invictus after riding the high of beating TOP the match prior. While I still think V5 are an excellent team that is a perfect fit for the current metagame, I do have some concerns that they’re being figured out a bit. TOP and Invictus both laid out excellent game plans for managing V5’s draft plan which relies heavily on getting stud jungler Weiwei onto one of his featured tempo picks like Nidalee and Graves. V5 have shown the ability to play other styles by going over top of the enemy team when they lose out on their favorite picks in draft and don’t think they can get a big enough lead early. This is why I think they’re a legitimately good team but I do think they’re a significantly worse team when Weiwei can’t dominate the pace of the game.

Suning have been a smart squad this season and have shown the ability to play a number of styles but their calling card has been the ability to minimize losses in the first 15 minutes, hit their item power spikes, and eventually close the door. They’re frequently even around the 15 minute mark and have only trailed by more than 1500g in 7 games this season (3 of which they ended up winning).

I typically like the uptempo team in this spot but I do think that teams are finally starting to see that they’re a much more manageable team to beat without Weiwei on his signature picks. I think Suning will be smart enough to do just that and play a longer macro game which they excel in.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.2

Time-projected: 25.85

Odds Weighted:  24.84

Underdog Win: 25.85

“G” Projected Total: 25.295 kills

Given V5’s propensity to fight frequently and what I’d assume is Sunings desired game plan to stall this out and hunker down early, I think we could see a lot of kills traded for objectives and a medium to long game time. I like a play on the over here and the projections agree.

 

V5 game times: 30.01 / 31.05 / 27.83 (average / in wins / in losses)

SN  game times:  33.4 / 32.75 / 34.41 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.71 minutes

Odds Weighted:  31.814 minutes

While the projections suggest an under, given the projected game script I’d anticipate that at least one of these games goes past this 33:00 total. At plus odds it’s tempting but you can win a scaling game in under 33:00 still so I’ll just pass here.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: V5 32.14% / SN 39.29%

First Tower: V5 53.57% / SN 50%

First Dragon: V5 46.43% / SN 42.86%

First Herald:  V5 35.71% / SN 39.29%

Suning first dragon at +110 looks great to me. Neither of these teams have been particularly strong first objective teams but they’ve had solid overall objective control. Any plus number I’m going to like.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)

Moneyline: Suning +152 (0.5 units)

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +377 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 1 Suning first dragon @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Suning first dragon @ +109 (1 unit)

 

 

 

Royal Never Give Up +103 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 @ +277) vs

LGD Gaming -132 (-1.5 maps @ +248)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -114 / -0.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Starting Lineups:

LGD – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

RNG – New, XLB, Xiaohu, Betty, Ming

Trends:

LGD are 5-2 straight up, 2-5 against the kill spread as favorites (swept by dog twice, Suning, RW)

LGD are 10-7 against the kill spread as favorites

RNG are 1-2 straight up, 3-0 against the map spread as underdogs (vs JDG, FPX, IG)

RNG are 6-3 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

This is a strange game to handicap made stranger by RNG going back to their original lineup for this game.

These two teams are remarkably similar. Both prefer to play up-tempo, snowballing compositions that end the game fast and early. Both are exceptional at getting early game leads ranking in the top five in economic EGR (average of composite gold differentials at 10, 15, and 20 minutes relative to league average). RNG have slightly better late game decision making and macro overall but I think both teams suffer from a lot of inconsistencies in this area of the game. RNG are also quite two-faced when it comes to game-to-game consistencies in game planning and execution of a plan.

LGD have struggled mightily against teams that have jumped out to leads on them. They frequently look completely lost in these matchups. The other three top 5 teams in the economic EGR are TOP, V5, and eStar (wild right?) with JDG close in 6th. If we include JDG, LGD are 2-2 in matches, 5-6 in games against these teams.

This number has also moved from RNG small favorites (-114 / -112) to this current number over the past 24 hours.

LGD have been the better team statistically as the #4 team in the economy/objective model while RNG are far back in 9th but I also think RNG are better with this lineup and have better players overall. I likely would have taken whoever is plus money so if this number was flipped I definitely would have been on LGD. I just think when you get two teams with nearly identical styles and similar problems and they’re both pretty good that it’s more or less a coin flip. I’ll take RNG here.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.5

Time-projected: 27.0

Odds-Weighted: 26.35

Underdog Win:  25.21

“G” Projected Total: 26.62 kills

The tricky part about these uptempo games is that they can frequently be lopsided but they can also turn bloody. With such a massive gap between the books number and mine I’m going to play this strictly trusting the projection even though I think these could be fast stomps. These two teams are certainly not afraid to duke it out. 23.5 total for map 1, 24.5 for map 2, it should definitely be the latter or more.

 

LGD game times: 33.35 / 31.41 / 35.77 (average / in wins / in losses)

RNG game times: 32.47 / 32.33 / 32.60 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.91 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.95 minutes

While the projection likes this number as it is, I think these are going to be fast and furious games that are extremely lopsided one way or the other given the tendencies we have at play here. I’ll go against the numbers and take the under.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: LGD 59.26% / RNG 67.86%

First Tower: LGD 62.96% / RNG 46.42%

First Dragon: LGD 37.04% / RNG 53.57%

First Herald:  LGD 48.15% / RNG 39.29%

Pretty solid to get RNG first blood at such a low number especially given LGD’s significant drop off in first blood rate but I could see this going either way. The rest of these are similar. You could make an argument for value on any side of these because of the game script but since wearent getting pluss odds on any of them I’ll be passing. If you want to lay the short money on RNG first blood and LGD first tower those are the markets to attack as well as RNG first dragon.

I will be playing the under dragons slain again here given that I anticipate these will be fast games.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: RNG +102 (1 unit)

Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +277 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -112 (1.68 units)**

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 1 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +181 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 total dragons slain UNDER 4.5 @ +177 (1 unit)

 

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 2

 

 

SANDBOX Gaming +606 (+1.5 maps @ +176, -1.5 @ +910) vs

DAMWON Gaming -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -233)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -120 / -9.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +119 / under -156)

Trends:

DWG are 7-1 straight up, 7-1 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -465)

DWG are 14-3 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.875)

DWG have covered their team total 13 out of 17 games (avg total: 13.875)

Kill Totals have gone OVER 12 out of 17 games where DWG were favored (avg total: 22.5)

Sandbox are 2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +367)

Sandbox are 8-8 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.07)

Sandbox have covered their team total 9 out of 16 games as underdogs (avg total: 7.5)

 

DAMWON have been completely obliterating any non-elite team in the LCK this season. I’m talking they look like Cloud 9 but in the LCK level obliterating people… although maybe that analogy isn’t great given the recent losses they’ve had. The point being, DAMWON’s numbers jump off the page in a ridiculous way BECAUSE of how badly they whoop on anybody but the best teams.

If you think DAMWON get overzealous and maybe style a little too hard or screw around too much, which is entirely within the realm of possibility, then feel free to take a shot on Sandbox here but I think they’re going to utterly demolish them. ShowMaker has two accounts in the top five of Korean solo queue right now and in the middle of a competitive season that’s absolutely absurd. You know what though? It shows in his play. Guess who else is in the top five? Canyon and it shows in his play as well. This team just has “it” right now and unless it’s one of the elite teams I’m staying the hell out of the way. I do think they’ll get boneheaded and get ahead of themselves and punt a game being cocky at some point but it’s anybody’s guess when that happens.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.29

Time-projected: 24.99

Odds Weighted:  26.24

Underdog Win: 23.96

“G” Projected Total: 25.17 kills

Over. DAMWON love to style even in speed runs and I don’t think a YamatoCannon team will back down from a fight.

 

DWG game times: 28.94 / 28.51 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)

SB  game times: 32.72 / 33.72 / 32.08 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 30.83 minutes

Odds Weighted: 30.565  minutes

Unders are juiced quite a bit but I still like them here.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: DWG 45.45% / SB 34.78%

First Tower: DWG 95.45% / SB 60.87%

First Dragon: DWG 36.36% / SB 47.83%

First Herald:  DWG 77.27% / SB 47.83%

95% is insane in anything this far into the season but I could see justifying a small play on a SB first tower given that they’ve excelled there. I’ll be passing. Same with dragons since they haven’t been a priority for DWG.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -233 (2.33 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -152 (1.52 units)

 

 

Afreeca Freeca -625 (-1.5 maps @ -154) vs

SeolHaeOne Prince +404 (+1.5 maps @ +121, -1.5 @ +901)

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -109 / +8.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +103 / under -133)

Trends:

Afreeca are 5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the map spread (avg odds: -259)

Afreeca are 10-1 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -4.1)

SP are 1-9 straight up, 3-7 against the map spread (avg odds: +265)

SP are 5-19 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.3)

SP have covered their team total 11 out of 24 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.7)

 

SeolHaeOne are really bad. Really REALLY bad but given the way Afreeca like to play I actually think many of these markets are dead on. I was hoping to be able to get decent totals numbers here but Afreeca have taken FOREVER closing games out and while they’ve been pretty thorough I could see a punt happening.

I’m just staying away from a side in this one although I do think Afreeca -1.5 is probably your best bet.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.78

Time-projected: 23.79

Odds Weighted:  21.53

Underdog Win: 27.19

“G” Projected Total: 22.70 kills

.This could be a dull 12-2 snoozefest or it could turn into a clown fiesta. I’d guess the former which means this total is going to be low just like the books number. Pass.

 

AF game times: 32.38 / 34.48 / 30.29 (average / in wins / in losses)

SP  game times: 30.99 / 33.46 / 30.41 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time:  31.69 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.34 minutes

Pass. Afreeca have taken their sweet time like the old lady ordering at McDonalds for the first time since 1960. I don’t trust them to close with any sort of speed.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: AF 45.45% / SP 57.14%

First Tower: AF 31.82% / SP 19.05%

First Dragon: AF 27.27% / SP 57.14%

First Herald:  AF 40.91% / SP 28.57%

Now this is where the bread and butter is for this one. I like SeolHaeOne for both first blood and dragon at plus money.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 SP first blood @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 SP first blood @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 SP first dragon @ +130 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 SP first dragon @ +125 (1 unit)

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 1

 

LEC trends through five weeks:

Favorites are 32-32 straight up, 26-29 against the kill spread

Favorites have covered their kill total in 22 out of 55 games

Underdogs have covered their kill total in 33 out of 55 games

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 32 out of 55 games

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 28 out of 55 games

 

 

SK Gaming -152 vs Excel Esports +119

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -119 / +3.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

SK are 2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -164 / -4.25)

Opponents have covered their team total in 3 out of 4 games against SK

XL are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +212 / +6.4)

XL have covered their team total 5 out of 10 games as underdogs (avg odds: 8.3)

 

Excel have steadily improved as the season has gone on and seem to have a strong grasp on the current metagame. SK Gaming have also looked good but not great as the season has gone on after a hot start. Both of these teams are very similar to me and I don’t really see a good reason why either should be a moderate favorite against the other. I’ll take the dog who I think is a very slightly better team anyway.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel +119 (1 unit)

 

Team Vitality +168 vs Origen -213

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -114 / -5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Origen are 3-5 straight up, 3-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -297 / -5.5)

Vitality are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +160 / +5.9)

 

We talked a lot on the show this week about how there are nine legitimately competitive teams in the LEC and while we could get granular and separate them into tiers, the only really weak link is Schalke. Vitality have a good chance of finishing 9th this split but that does not, by any means, make them a bad team. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them go on a run and compete with the playoff pack either. This team is very competent and while they don’t add a lot of value they can beat you if you screw up or mess around.

That said, Origen looked great with Jactroll last week! I know, I never thought I’d say those words either but here we are. They were confident, decisive, and it felt like he gave them direction that they were lacking. All of the players and Jactroll himself had very positive things to say in post game interviews. Origen still have some ground to make up but I think this could be the spark they needed to move closer to their previous level. If they can become consistent like they used to be and blend these spike performances in they’ll definitely be a playoff team but they have very little margin for error.

Historically Origen don’t lose to the non-elite teams. They also struggled to beat the Fnatic’s and G2’s of the world That hasn’t entirely been the case this season. As a matter of fact it’s been the opposite. I think Origen take care of business here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Origen -5.5 kills @ -114 (1.71 units)

 

G2 Esports -667  vs Schalke 04 +416

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -105 / +9.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

G2 are 5-6 straight up, 4-7 against the kill spread as favorites

G2 have covered their team total in 4 out of 11 games as favorites

Schalke are 1-8 straight up, 3-6 against the kill spread (avg odds/spread: +282 / +7.17)

Schalke have covered their team total in 2 out of 9 games as underdogs (avg total: 7.28)

Opponents have covered their team total in 6 out of 9 games against Schalke (avg total: 14.06)

 

Whether or not you believe what you hear on talk shows or not, Guiholto was on Summoning Insight this week and mentioned that G2 only had two days of practice leading into last weeks games and coming out of the extended break. Obviously with the death of Perkz’ father he needed time off but it perhaps explains their middling performance last week.

This team is still really good they’ve just failed to completely dominate teams like they used to. We talked at length about what could be causing it and it seems that drafts are a big part of it and combined with the fact that they’ve seemingly struggled to adapt to the current meta and what other teams are doing more than the champions themselves, forces you to evaluate G2 one of two ways. First, that they can’t possibly remain this bad (relative to them). If they’ve done this well without even taking however many barons it is (I think one or two) and not having a clue about the meta and not playing a lot of the meta champions then imagine if they did. Second, maybe this just is what G2 is now and if that’s the case is it good enough.

To me it’s not a matter of if but when. This team has always been smart, they’re still playing smart but it honestly looks like they’re just playing. They still have the thoughtful macro manuevers and still bait fights to stall for objectives. Hell they even still trade kills for other economic reasons. The pieces are still there it just hasn’t come together. To me G2 are ripe for regression and with more time to dive into what’s happening I trust them to get it together and I would not be surprsied in the least to see them in finals.

Another pessimistic view is that they just need to make playoffs and that their circuit points alone are going to get them a high seeding regardless of the regular season. I’m not buying that at least not yet, they’re not locked for playoffs yet.

I haven’t talked much about Schalke who remain very bad albeit not a complete dumpster fire but there’s a reason I haven’t talked about them. They’re going to get smoked here. The question is how bad. I think pretty bad.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): G2 -7.5 kills @ -164 (1.64 units)

Kill Spread (alt): G2 -10.5 kills @ +114 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread (alt): G2 -11.5 kills @ +142 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread (alt): G2 -12.t kills @ +171 (0.25 units) 

 

Misfits +136 vs Team Rogue -175

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -116 / -5.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Rogue are 6-0 straight up, 3-3 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -267 / -6.5)

Opponents have covered their team total in 1 out of 6 games against Rogue (avg total: 7.5)

Misfits are 2-4 straight up, 4-2 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +154 / +5.5)

Misfits have covered their team total in 4 out of 6 games as underdogs (avg total: 9.17)

Opponents have covered their team total in 2 out of 6 games as favorites vs MSF (avg total: 13.33)

 

Misfits are more than capable of winning this match but they’ve been inconsistent game to game. Their ceiling performances allow them to hang with anybody but we haven’t see nearly as many of those as I’d expected. They aren’t bad I just think they’re a cut below the top of the league at this point. Rogue on the other hand look absolutely ridiculous and it doesn’t look like they’re slowing down. I don’t really know what else I can ask Rogue to do without completely breaking character for them. They’re just playing rock solid LOL right now and appear to have a variety of strategies and a great read on the current metagame.

Rogue roll.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Rogue -5.5 kills @ -112 (1.68 units)

 

Fnatic +137  vs MAD Lions -175

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -109 / -4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

MAD are 6-1 straight up, 6-1 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -282 / -6.2)

Fnatic have only been underdogs once this season (vs G2 +150)

 

Another match that we talked at great length about. To me, Fnatic can only get better from here as they’ve been playing toward the bottom half of their range of outcomes for a lot of this season and they’re still right in the thick of it. It’s simply a matter of how much you think they  improve the rest of the way and how quickly. Fnatic look to me to have found their lane and know who they are and looked a lot better last weekend even though they had to come back in dramatic fashion against Misfits to do so. I’m bullish on Fnatic.

MAD Lions have taken a few hits but continue to show all the signs of a good team even in a few losses. This is still one of the best teams in Europe ane their energy and creativity make them a hell of a good time to watch.

I’m not sure when we’ll ever see Fnatic plus money again. That’s how I see this match. If you believe more in recent performance then there’s an argument for a MAD Lions side here (at least kill spread) but I think Fnatic are being disrespected here a bit. Don’t forget the Fnatic have been one of the only teams successful against this wild, aggressive drafting style from years of battling G2. I also think Fnatic have more room for growth through regression while MAD just kind of are what they are this point. MAD are the better time for now, but this number is too big.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic +137 (1 unit)

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 1

 

Immortals +188 vs Evil Geniuses -250

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -125 / -7.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals:  7.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

EG are 5-4 straight up, 3-6 against the spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -282 / -5.5)

Immortals are 3-4 straight up, 6-1  against the kill spread as underdogs since moving to this roster (-590 / +6.64)

 

Evil Geniuses have committed to Goldenglue and Huni for the remainder of the season.

As weird as it is to say I think this will probably do more good than bad. Obviously it’s a downgrade in terms of overall player quality from Jiizuke to Goldenglue but I do think the metagame isn’t great for Jiizuke and there was clearly some philosophical dissonance between the members of this team and the strategic coaching staff. Overall this is probably good for EG because it will at least give them a solid identity which they’ve needed.

Immortals have shown flashes but have been wildly inconsistent like many of the bottom half LCS teams.  They have a decent read on the metagame and I usually like their game plans which is the only thing really keeping them from “dumpster fire” status relative to the LCS but the players are still lacking on an individual level.

I don’t really get how EG are favored by this much here. This price feels like it’s just baking in way too much history for EG. This isn’t the same team we saw last season. Last weekend they look god awful in their first game and much better in the second but the reality is probably that they’re somewhere between those two. Even if you’re optimistic about EG making progress this line is just too much respect to them. I’ll be taking the Immortals kill spreads and moneyline.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Immortals +7.5 @ -125 (0.9375 units)

Moneyline: Immortals +188 (0.5 units)

 

FlyQuest +130 vs Team Liquid -167

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -106 / -4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Liquid are 9-0 straight up, 3-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds/spread: -269 / -5.72)

FlyQuest are 3-3 straight up, 1-5 against the kill spread as underdogs (+144 / +3.67)

 

FlyQuest have been very out of character the past few weeks.  Over the 2020 season their biggest strength has been solid, consistent drafting, good fundamentals, and great macro play. That’s been far from the case over the past three weeks. That type of thing doesn’t just go away overnight which makes me optimistic for FlyQuest moving forward. They’ve probably just had a few bad weeks of practice. Obviously it’s cause for concern but it’s better than major systemic problems.

Liquid continue to improve and are basically just a better version of FlyQuest. Good fundamentals, great macro play, solid drafting. There is some room for criticism for Liquid who have had a few really bizarre wins but they’ve shown the ability to adapt on the fly and they never overplay their hand which is going to make them consistent on a game-to-game basis.

While I think FlyQuest are much better than we’ve seen in the past two weeks I also think Liquid are going to continue to improve. I’ll be on Liquid here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Liquid -167 (1.67 units)

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