Thursday, July 16th Recap

 

Invictus vs LNG (Net: -0.44 units)

They took their sweet time in game one but Invictus were never in danger of losing either of these games. It’s great seeing Baolan back in the mix full time. I meant to write about that yesterday and it just skipped my mind. Before this weird and long hiatus, if that’s what we want to call it, he was one of the best supports in the world in any region. I thought maybe he was just retired but hadn’t announced yet or was moving into a coaching role but it turns out he still has it and if that’s the case Invictus are a real threat. TheShy had a few utterly dominant games here just taking Flandre’s lunch money in both.

RNG vs Suning (Net: -2.04 units)

This was a competitive series as I thought it would be but Suning remain steadfast and RNG remain two-faced. It really does boggle my mind how a team can look as good as RNG do in some games and seemingly forget how to play in the very next game. They’re living up to their namesake. Suning remain a consistent option.

LPL Total: -2.48 units

We got roasted on some really bad variance on props. I’d play them all again tomorrow without question but this was along the lower range of outcomes. It happens.

 

T1 vs KT Rolster (Net: +1.856 units)

KT should have won this second game but Faker and Canna picking up back-to-back-to-back Infernal drakes on Jayce and Leblanc made them EXTREMELY difficult to deal with in this game. Still KT probably should have taken this game down and it took a stellar nexus turret defense with Leblanc down after Faker was caught in mid lane around the 30 minute mark for T1 to stay alive in this and eventually pick up infernal soul and eventually the game.

T1 are still showing mistakes on occasion but are still a very strong team that I’d expect to round into raid boss form as the season goes along as they always seem to do. KT were competitive in this series and it was nice to see Tusin back. Bummer we didn’t cash on the +1.5, we should have.

Sandbox vs SeolHaeOne (Net: +0.52 units)

I had my suspicions about Sandbox in general heading into the series. Half of their wins had almost nothing to do with them and more to do with just abysmal performances by their opponents. Credit for playing janitor and cleaning up the mess but they’ve only had a few games where they’ve looked convincingly good. I’m still not ruling that possibility out but I wasn’t ready to crown them acceptable yet. This series didn’t help. Sandbox looked awful in the first two games of this series. SeolHaeOne also looked awful. The first two games of this series were absolutely terrible League of Legends by both sides. Sloppy, meaningless fights, no sense of the big picture, poor map and situational awareness, tons of micro mistakes on an individual player level. It was just a mess.

Sandbox are still in prove it mode to me. I think they’re probably going to end up “just ok” but people really need to cool it with the Yamato hype. He beaten SeolhaeOne, Hanwha Life, Dynamics (who I do think is ok), and KT Rolster without Tusin. This team is going to get utterly destroyed by the good teams unless they can show me that they can create on their own with more consistency. Reminds me A LOT of LNG in the LPL earlier this season. Don’t buy into the hype this team isn’t that good, at least not yet. Again, I don’t doubt that they could continue to improve but they’ve got a lot of issues still they’ve just been facing bad teams, mediocre teams, or teams in bad situations during this win streak and they’ve been handed a few wins on a silver platter.

LCK Total: +2.376 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: -0.104 units

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 7 – Day 5

 

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix -667 (-1.5 maps @ -154) vs

Rogue Warriors +428 (+1.5 maps @ +121, -1.5 @ +900)

 

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -119 / +8.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Starting Lineups:

FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

RW – Holder, Haro, Wuming, ZWuji, Ley

Trends:

FPX are 5-3 straight up, 2-6 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -684)

FPX are 9-13 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.625)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 22 games where FPX were favorites

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 22 games where FPX were favorites

RW are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +252)

RW are 14-10 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.3)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 17 out of 24 games where RW were underdogs (avg total: 26.3)

 

While FPX had a bit of a rough start to the season and have played a lot of three game series along the way I think they’ve been a bit forgotten about amidst the V5 and TOP hype. This is still a world class team that’s just battling through the long summer season. It’d be difficult to justify putting them on a level with V5 and TOP at this current point in time but this team is still very good. They’ve faced a difficult schedule of late including Vici, RNG, V5, and Invictus in their past five. Don’t forget they beat V5 two weeks ago. FPX are going to be fine and appear to be rounding into form.

Rogue Warriors have covered the map spread in 5 of their past 6 matches and managed to win two series in a row against an extremely overrated LGD team and Dominus who aren’t exactly anything special. Wuming and, more importantly, Haro have given this team a new energy and they look more like the “punch up” underdogs that they were last season. Make no mistake, however, this team still isn’t very good. Just because they’re playing better doesn’t mean we should crown them as a good team. Better than bad isn’t necessarily good.

I think FPX are going to stomp this match and I don’t think it’s particularly close. FPX have their limitations and they’re going to struggle against the elite teams if Doinb’s champion pool becomes an issue but that won’t be a problem against Rogue Warriors. FPX roll.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 28.04

Time-projected: 28.82

Odds Weighted:  28.2

Underdog Win: 33.24

“G” Projected Total: 28.354 kills

This is an extremely high total for season ten LOL and while RW have been absolute over machines my gut is telling me to fade the trends here. Both of these teams like to scrap early and often but something tells me FPX are going to take care of this cleanly. I’ll pass but lean to the under.

 

FPX game times: 30.72 / 30.46 / 31.04 (average / in wins / in losses)

RW  game times: 33.64 / 37.72 / 31.96 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.182 minutes

Odds Weighted:  31.775 minutes

Right on the money. I was going to lean under but the book put a 31:00 up so pass.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: FPX 62.5% / RW 62.5%

First Tower: FPX 45.83% / RW 41.66%

First Dragon: FPX 58.33% / RW 45.83%

First Herald: FPX 50% / RW 50%

There is value in pretty much every RW market in this match but given that I think this will be a pretty firm stomping more than a lot of people do I’m a little more skeptical than usual. It’s better to be agnostic with props but instead of loading up I’ll probably pick my spots on this one. RW first blood looks like the best option to me even though it’s the least valuable looking. It’s the most likely to happen with Haro in the lineup.

Given the short time totals in this game I’m going to play under 4.5 dragons as well.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -154 (2.31 units)

Prop: Map 1 RW first blood @ +112 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RW first blood @ +112 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ +137 (1 unit)

 

 

 

EDward Gaming +112 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 maps @ +299) vs

LGD Gaming -143 (-1.5 maps @ +213)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -118 / -2.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -133 / under +103)

Starting Lineups:

LGD – Xiaoxiang, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko

EDG – Langx, Peanut, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends:

LGD are 4-2 straight up, 1-5 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -366)

LGD are 8-7 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.83)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 10 out of 15 games where LGD were favored

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 8 out of 15 games where LGD were favored

LGD have covered their team total in just 4 out of 15 games as favorites

Opponents have covered their team total in 6 out of 15 games as underdogs vs LGD

EDG are 0-4 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +228)

(vs Invictus, TOP, JDG, RNG)

EDG are 6-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.0)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 5 out of 10 games where EDG were underdogs

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 10 games where EDG were underdogs

EDG have covered their team total in 4 out of 10 games as underdogs

Opponents have covered their team total in 6 out of 10 games as favorites vs EDG

 

EDG are starting Xiaoxiang again for this series. While he had an arguably game losing play in their last outing, it looked to me like a team-wide miscommunication or a call that wasn’t followed up so I won’t put it entirely on him. Other than that he was actually outstanding scoring a few solo kills and really taking it to New. This series against RNG was a really weird one. EDG had significant leads in both games and managed to throw it away twice. Unlike certain other teams, like the one on the other side of this matchup, that’s an uncharacteristic thing for EDG over the past year or so. There’s a chance that it’s an omen of things to come but I’d think we get back to some sense of normalcy. Still, EDG have struggled mightily of late. They’re 2-8 in their past 10 games with their only win coming against RW. They lost to Dominus which is pretty bad but they have also had to face TOP, JDG, and RNG in this span. They did take a game off of TOP.

I think people are finally starting to realize that this LGD team isn’t nearly as good a League of Legends team as their numbers imply that they are. They’re paper tigers in a sense. They’re very good at jumping out to a lead but they really need that lead to hide their decision making deficiencies. We saw that in their most recent series against Rogue Warriors. They looked completely lost when the game was even or they were behind. Luckily they do have Peanut who has been an excellent jungler at getting the ball rolling over the course of his career. He has really been hard carrying this team this season. LangX has looked so much worse than he did on RNG even from an individual standpoint. He’s constantly making poor decisions, and while Kramer and Mark have been steady they’re more a product of their environment. They don’t get a lot of help even when they’re ahead LGD will frequently abandon Kramer to fend for himself in much the same was Evil Geniuses were doing to Bang last season. Kramer still has it but he’s playing the game on hard mode more often than not.

I’ll be going against the suggestion of the model which likes LGD (for obvious reasons). I know EDG have been struggling of late but I absolutely love them in this spot. LGD are a highly fraudulent team and while it wasn’t the case last series, EDG are typically a smart, albeit imperfect macro team. I don’t think LGD should ever be favored against most competent teams that have good players. To me these two teams are evenly matched with different strengths. The counter argument is that LGD succeed where EDG do not, in early game gold differential metrics, but much of that success rides on their high first blood rate. You know who has a solid first blood rate as well? EDG. JunJia and Jiejie BOTH have been excellent in this department and they trail LGD by only 1%.

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.86

Time-projected: 25.36

Odds-Weighted: 27.04

Underdog Win:  26.545

“G” Projected Total: 26.09 kills

Both of these teams, LGD especially, have been playing some real wild games of late and I could definitely see each of these games having a fight or two extra that they typically wouldn’t have due to a botched setup or teamfight. LGD have been pretty steady as an under team but they’ve had fairly high totals and EDG have been a pretty steady over team when you count their season long totals. I like the over here.

 

LGD game times: 33.33 / 30.68 / 35.77 (average / in wins / in losses)

EDG game times: 34.73 / 37.12 / 33.07 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 34.03 minutes

Odds Weighted: 33.91 minutes

EDG tend to take their time in wins and LGD tend to either run you over or get run over. I’ll be taking a half stake on the OVER even at a high number of 33:00. For similar reasons to the kill total OVER above, I think an extra fight or two more than you see in most games makes sense given the recent game scripts with these two squads. Forget their season long averages just think about how the two play.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: LGD 60.97% / EDG 59.09%

First Tower:  LGD 60.86% / EDG 50%

First Dragon: LGD 26.09% / EDG 36.36%

First Herald:  LGD 56.52% / EDG 54.545%

Double juice on the first blood :-/

Double juice on first tower :-/

Double juice on first dragon :-/

Double juice on first herald :-/

Well that sucks…. The dragon total is 4.5 OVER -323 / UNDER +220 which is tempting given that if any of these games turns into a snowball that’s going to look good but given how awful LGD, the snowballing team, have been in regards to closing and overall objective control I’m just going to stay away.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: EDG +112 (1 unit)

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +299 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -114 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -114 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -133 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ -133 (0.5 units)

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 3

 

 

 

DragonX -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -303) vs

Hanwha Life Esports +856 (+1.5 maps @ +222, -1.5 @ +1104)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -119 / +8.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

DRX are 5-1 straight up, 3-3 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -740)

DRX are 6-9 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -6.5)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 8 out of 15 games where DRX were favored

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 15 games where DRX were favored

DRX have covered their team total in 7 out of 15 games as favorites (avg total: 13.33)

Opponents have covered their team total in 7 out of 15 games as underdogs vs DRX (avg total: 7.33)

Hanwha are 0-7 straight up, 1-6 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +322)

Hanwha are 3-12 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.78)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 8 out of 15 games where HLE were underdogs

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 15 games where HLE were underdogs

Hanwha have covered their team total in 6 out of 15 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.21)

Opponents have covered their team total in 11 out of 15 games as favorites vs HLE (avg total: 13.64)

 

So the only argument here is that DragonX sometimes go too far off the deep end drafting and punt games. I don’t think that’ll happen here. I think DragonX are going to obliterate Hanwha who look like one of the worst teams in the East right now. Don’t over think this. Hanwha are a dumpster fire. DragonX are one of the stronger teams on the planet.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 25.7

Time-projected: 25.7

Odds Weighted: 23.39

Underdog Win: 26.65

“G” Projected Total: 24.93 kills

Overs and alt overs. There’s a chance DRX just take care of business here but good teams (GenG, DWG, T1) ran the total up on Hanwha in their wins. I’d expect nothing less here.

 

DRX game times:  32.15 / 31.61 / 33.51 (average / in wins / in losses)

HLE  game times:  32.48 / 37.88 / 31.58 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 32.31 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.0 minutes

No markets, I’d probably play the under if it’s 32.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: DRX 42.86% / HLE 38.1%

First Tower: DRX 38.1% / HLE 19.05%

First Dragon: DRX 61.9% / HLE 38.1%

First Herald:  DRX 38.1% / HLE 38.1%

Hold your nose and take the HLE first herald and first bloods here. The numbers are too high for a high variance market and DRX haven’t exactly placed a premium on either.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -119 (0.6 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ +100 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ +120 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ +143 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ +169 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -123 (0.6 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ +109 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ +132 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ +156 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first herald @ +133 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first herald @ +151 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first blood @ +122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first blood @ +122 (1 unit)

 

 

Afreeca Freecs +363 (+1.5 maps @ +109, -1.5 @ +811) vs

DAMWON Gaming -556 (-1.5 maps @ -139)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -103 / -7.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

DWG are 6-1 straight up, 6-1 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -452)

DWG are 12-3 against the kill spread as favorites (avg spread: -5.65)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 10 out of 15 games where DWG were favored (avg total: 22.5)

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 15 games where DWG were favored (avg total: 32.57)

DWG have covered their team total in 11 out of 15 games as favorites (avg total: 13.64)

Opponents have covered their team total in 8 out of 15 games as underdogs vs DWG (avg total: 8.79)

Afreeca are 0-4 straight up, 1-3 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +266)

Afreeca are 2-7 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +6.0)

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 6 out of 9 games where AF were underdogs (avg total: 21.75)

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 9 games where AF were underdogs (avg total: 32.5)

Afreeca have covered their team total in 3 out of 9 games as underdogs (avg total: 8.5)

Opponents have covered their team total in 8 out of 9 games where AF were underdogs (avg total: 13.5)

 

For as dominant as DWG have been I’ll continue to caution that this team is probably not as good as their numbers. That doesn’t mean I’m a hater or that I think they’re frauds just that their numbers aren’t remotely close to sustainable and are being boosted up by some complete stomping against bad teams. DWG haven’t looked the same against the top LCK teams and actually have a few wins that they probably shouldn’t due to some big throws by their opponents in those situations. Still, this team is ridiculously good and right now there isn’t really any competition for the top four teams in the LCK. Afreeca have been completely destroyed when they’ve faced the elite teams outside of a single game vs T1 in week two.

I’m still skeptical about trusting DWG to 2-0 on a consistent basis. They tend to get overzealous and just haven’t been punished for it yet because they frequently just outplay on an individual level. They’ve overreached and gotten away with it. That said, I think a 2-0 is still the most likely outcome here by slightly more than these odds. Even considering the inflated numbers DWG have they’re still well over an order of magnitude better than Afreeca and should probably be favored by more than this.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 24.26

Time-projected: 24.93

Odds Weighted: 26.21

Underdog Win: 22.76

“G” Projected Total: 25.135 kills

I’ll be playing alternative overs.

 

DWG game times: 29.26 / 28.86 / 30.85 (average / in wins / in losses)

AF  game times: 33.05 / 34.48 / 31.3 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.15 minutes

Odds Weighted:  30.605 minutes

No markets, would play the unders for sure.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: DWG 40% / AF 50%

First Tower: DWG 95% / AF 35%

First Dragon: DWG 30% / AF 30%

First Herald: DWG 80% / AF 40%

There’s some value in Afreeca first blood and first dragon.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -139 (1.39 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -114 (0.6 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ +113 (0.24 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ +137 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ +161 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -102 (0.51 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ +124 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ +146 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ +173 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first blood @ +113 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first blood @ +113 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first dragon @ +127 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first dragon @ +127 (1 unit)

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 1

 

Will be writing on this and releasing it later tonight.

 

LEC Trends through four weeks:

 

Favorites are 24-21 straight up (avg odds: -285)

Favorites are 20-25 against the kill spread (avg: -6.21)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER 28 out of 45 games (avg total: 23.12)

Time Totals have gone UNDER 26 out of 45 games (avg total: 32)

Favorites have covered their team total 16 out of 45 games (avg total: 14.06)

Underdogs have covered their team total 24 out of 45 games (avg total: 8.59)

 

Most of these trends aren’t too surprising if we didn’t have the ridiculously favorite dominant Spring split that we just had. The league is stronger across the board and unders are king.

I’ll be taking a somewhat similar approach to week one of a season after the short break except to a lesser degree. With less time to prepare, better teams and organizations use that time more efficiently and eventually overwhelm poor teams more than you think the other way around. When there is extra time for everyone to prepare it’s reasonable to expect the weaker teams to put in some of their strongest performances before being buried by the mountain of preparation work in the week-to-week. For this reason I’ll trying to take a lot of underdogs and spreads this week unless I have a good reason not to (and there are a few). I expect this week to be close and competitive with everyone coming back fresh but I also expect a few of the elite teams that struggled in the first half like Fnatic, G2, and Origen, to come out looking much better after the break.

 

I started writing on this and found out I was writing on Saturday’s slate because they were flipped around to flex the match of the week in the middle of when I was writing so…. I guess I got a head start on Saturday! Apologies for the brevity of this version for Friday. Lost multiple hours of time to this.  Saturday’s will have more team trends included. I’d encourage checking out The Gold Card Podcast where we discussed this slate in detail.

 

Team Vitality -109 vs SK Gaming -118

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -120 / -1.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 11.5

Time Total: OTB

 

We talked a lot about this one on the podcast. I think SK are slightly better but these teams are so tight that I can’t really justify any action on a side. I do like the under here as this projects to about a 21.1 total in an average game time between these two. I do think there’s a chance we see more aggression coming out of the break as teams have more set plays but that doesn’t necessarily equate to more kills in all scenarios.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 22.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

 

 

Rogue -385 vs Schalke 04 +283

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -116 / +7.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

 

Rogue looked like one of the better teams in the league and I don’t necessarily think they’ll automatically regress. I do, however, think that a lot of the other teams that I expect to be good and struggled in the first half such as G2, Fnatic, and probably Origen, will take a step forward after the break. Rogue are really REALLY good. I don’t want to take anything away from what they’ve done and I think a lot of people are trying to. They’re showing elite play at all phases of the game and just because they aren’t playing anything outside of the box doesn’t mean that we should hold that against them.

Schalke pulled a massive upset against Fnatic in the last game we saw in the LEC. Do I think it’s an omen for future success? Somewhat. I don’t want to overreact but a win like that can do a lot for a team’s morale and this squad really needed that. You could argue that the break might kill the momentum but getting that confidence boost heading into extra time to prepare for your next match makes me a little optimistic for Schalke at least in the short term. Ultimately this team still lacks talent but I do think they’ll be competitive this week and next at the very least.

I’ll be on the Schalke kill spread here. I expect them to be much more competitive and given Rogue’s propensity to play cleaner, lower kill games I think catching a large spread number like this is akin to playing a high spread in a low total NFL game. Very little margin for error for the favorites.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Schalke +7.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 

Misfits +141 vs Fnatic -182

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -105 / -4.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

Misfits looked really good in week four completely stomping the MAD Lions. They’ve now won 4 of their past 5 and appear closer to the team that they were in Spring than the somewhat disappointing start to the Summer. This team is far from perfect and feel rather linear and easy to shut down if you put effort into it from a strategic standpoint but you still need to execute.

Fnatic had an embarrassing loss to Schalke before the break and had lost 5 of their past 6 in a brutal stretch where they seemingly couldn’t get any kind of momentum no matter what they did. Criticize their drafts or approach all you want, Fnatic haven’t been playing well. The best matches they’ve played were those Soraka losses where they played mostly well before some critical late game errors. Since then they’ve been awful. Personally, I think Fnatic have been playing toward the lowest range of their expected performance. I’m talking like sub 10%.

The question here is whether or not you believe in Fnatic regression and how much so. Also your thoughts on Misfits moving foward and how good they actually are. Fnatic may not return to their championship caliber form right away but I can almost guarantee you that they’ll be significantly better than what we saw in the past two weeks. From there it’s just a matter of how far you want to go.

I don’t like Misfits personally. I think they’re easy to read and while Dan Dan has improved this split, he’s still a potential liability that can be exploited. Febiven’s champion pool is another potential angle of attack for teams. I like Fnatic in this spot and will be taking the short kill spread.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Fnatic -4.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

 

 

MAD Lions -286 vs Excel Esports +216

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -116 / +6.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

 

Excel have improved over the course of the split and managed to win 4 of their past 5 going into the break. MAD Lions had their winning streak snapped by Misfits but were otherwise dominating the LEC.

While I like Excel I really do think that we’re actually getting some value on MAD Lions in this spot. -6.5 is toward the top end of what you get in kill spreads on the moneyline before it flips over to 7.5 AND we’re getting a higher total than you usually see in these spots. I think MAD will get right back on the horse and continue dominating all but the best teams. I could see them dropping games to themselves on occasion with how they play but I’m not going to try to pick and choose those. This is one of those against the “off of a break underdogs are competitive” grain picks I was discussing in the intro. I just think the gap is too large between these two. I’d also lean to the under as I think this might be more competitive than it looks but I think this number is close enough and there’s a bit of uncertainty coming out of the break with how these teams will approach this matchup.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: MAD -6.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 

G2 Esports -217 vs Origen +168

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

 

We’re going to see Jactroll start over Destiny for Origen. I know people like to meme Jactroll but this organization wouldn’t have made a move like this if they didn’t think the mixup or change in personnel would make a difference. I think this could be a positive. Origen have been in a funk and maybe this will snap them out of it.

Given the time constraints from the mixup today I don’t have the time to lookup the exact numbers but just know that G2 have completely dominated Origen over the past two years. Origen have only a few game wins in the 15+ games they’ve played. Stylistically G2 are just an absolute nightmare for what Origen want to do in a game. The whole jazz vs classical argument that I’ve made a number of times. I also think G2 are going to be back and with Perkz back in the lineup and hopefully in a good mindset considering all that’s happened, they’ll be closer to the form we’ve expected from them.

If feels like every season we get G2 at around this -200 to -250 range vs Origen and it feels like a lock every time. I’ll be on the kill spread in this instance but the moneyline is fine as well. I’ll also be taking the OVER 13.5 kills for G2 as that team total feels way WAY too low even considering the few low kill total wins they’ve had this season. I think we’ll see some “classic” G2 tomorrow.

My Picks: 

Kill Spread: G2 -5.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Team Total: G2 OVER 13.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 1

 

 

LCS Trends through four weeks:

Favorites are 34-16 straight up, but just 19-31 against the kill spread

Kill Totals have gone an even 25 each to the over and under

Time Totals have gone OVER 29 out of 50 games

Favorites have covered their team total in 24 out of 50 games

Underdogs have covered their team total in 27 out of 50 games

 

 

100 Thieves  +141 vs Team Solo Mid -182**

 (this number will vary from book to book, I’ve seen as low as -130 for TSM, shop around)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -122 / -5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

TSM are 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds: -200, avg spread: -4.875)

TSM have covered their team total 5 out of 8 games as favorites (avg total: 12.625)

Opponents have covered their team total 4 out of 8 games against TSM as favorites (avg total: 8.125)

100 Thieves are 2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds: +216, avg spread: +6.5)

100T have covered their team total in 4 out of 7 games as underdogs (avg total: 7.93)

Opponents have covered their team total 4 out of 7 games against 100T as favorites (avg total: 13.64)

 

The new look 100 Thieves shocked the world with a dominant win over Cloud 9 to close out a 3/4 underdog win day last Sunday. They also beat FlyQuest even though it appeared that FlyQuest had stabilized before a critical error overstaying on a mid push cost them the soul and ultimately the game.  Contractz and Poome have given this team a much needed boost of energy and the confidence that can come with a weekend like this one can be season altering. I like these changes but I’ve always been skeptical to immediately crown a team good based off of a single good weekend. Teams run hot and cold all of the time. Temper expectations.

TSM had a perplexing loss to Immortals but still managed to make a game out of it even against infernal soul, an elder drake, and a baron. They stole the second elder drake but it wasn’t enough at that point as they were pinned in their base. TSM continue to show these games from time to time. I’m not really sure it matters that much in the grand scheme of things since this team isn’t in danger of not making playoffs but these seemingly random games do make it frustrating to back them in spots like this.

My experience over the years is to fade the hype. While I’m surprised it’s not more, this line has ticked down from -208 earlier in the week. The news of Treatz starting at support over Biofrost as well as people looking to back the new hotness 100 Thieves are likely the culprits for the move. Admittedly, I haven’t watched as much academy this season but my colleauges who do speak highly of Treatz and think that this could be a positive shakeup. It’s worked for other teams why not TSM?

Like I said, I tend to fade the hype but to laying -182 even with the CLV isn’t really enough to convince me especially with TSM’s inconsistencies. However, I’ve seen as low as -130 so shop around on this line. At 5Dimes, where I take all lines for these posts from, in the prime section this still reads -182/+141 but you can get -130/-110 on the main page. Typically it’s the opposite and you get better value at prime but in this case I like TSM at -130 quite a bit. If you can get -160 or better I think TSM is the play here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM -130 (1.3 units)

 

Team Liquid -189 vs Evil Geniuses +145

 

Kill Total: 19.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -109 / +5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Liquid are 7-0 straight up, 1-6 against the kill spread as favorites (avg odds: -276, avg spread: -5.65)

 

Evil Geniuses signed GoldenGlue to a one week contract and will be starting him which opens up an import slot for Huni to play as well. This feels like a weird move. We talked a lot about it on the podcast and in the Discord this week but there are a number of factors that could have inspired this. Perhaps a clause in Huni’s contract that says he needs to play a game to gain North American residency (which he would get after this season) meaning he doesn’t take up an import slot anymore. It could also just be to change things up. Or maybe Jiizuke and the team is frustrated. Maybe they just want to see what they have in Huni. Regardless, I don’t think it really fixes this teams identity crisis. Evil Geniuses can’t seem to figure out who they are and I doubt a short term move like this will do that. I could be wrong but I’ll be betting against it.

Liquid have been winning ugly but getting cleaner and improving as the split goes along. They do appear to be the clear #2 in the league at this point, at least to me. Their low scoring games have lead to a lot of underdog spreads covering against them and a few of their wins have been quite messy from a macro standpoint but they still manage to get the job done most of the time.

I think Liquid are going to absolutely destroy EG tonight. These totals are a little low and I could see this going over fairly easily especially if Impact and Huni get into an ego measuring contest but I’ll be staying away from that market.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team Liquid -189 (1.89 units)

 

I’ll also be parlaying both favorites tonight.

Parlay (2): Liquid ML + TSM ML @ +137 (1 unit)

 

Leave a Reply