Thursday, July 9th Recap

 

Vici Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: -0.635 units)

I’ve got to give it to Vici. They showed up to play in this spot. I don’t even think FPX play that poorly in this series but Vici played by far their best series of the split. I was concerned about their easy schedule. The model absolutely loved Vici in this spot but I couldn’t get over that their numbers were severely inflated due to strength of competition. Good to see them finally starting to come to what we expected pre-season.

The Leyan/Aix dynamic is a little bit odd but we’ve seen Kkoma teams have success with the two jungle system before on T1. One gets to watch and make adjustments alongside the coach in game one to bring to game two. Be aware that Leyan actually has the harder job here and that substitutions may not be indicative of performance but a planned approach.

JDG vs LGD (Net:  +0.385 units)

There were some really close fights throughout this series but LGD’s poor macro and objective set up absolutely cost them in multiple spots throughout this series, particularly in game three. Still, an impressive showing by both squads. Hard not to love this JDG team.

LPL Total: -0.25 units

 

T1 vs SeolHaeOne (Net: +0.8 units)

T1 stuffed SeolHaeOne in a locker.

DAMWON vs Afreeca (Net:  -0.16 units)

DAMWON… jeez this team will catch you with a roundhouse kick when you don’t expect it. You’ll be putting up a fight and suddenly you wake up in a haze on the ground. They had a 15k gold lead at the 26 minute mark in game two of this series. That’s pretty obscene.

LCK Total: +0.64 units

 

 

Daily Total Net: +0.39 units

 

Considering the Vici upset vs our FPX moneyline+spread this could have been a much worse day.

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 6 – Day 5

 

OMG -103 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +265) vs

BiliBili Gaming -123 (-1.5 maps @ +238, +1.5 @ -370)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -112 / -0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +113 / under -147)

Starting Lineups:

OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold

BLG – Kingen, Meteor, FoFo, Wings, XinMo

Trends:

OMG are 2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the map spread as favorites this season

OMG are 3-5 against the kill spread as favorites

OMG are 1-3 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as underdogs

OMG are 6-3 against the kill spread as underdogs

Time totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 17 OMG games

BLG are 2-5 straight up, 4-3 against the map spread as underdogs this season

BLG are 8-9 against the kill spread as underdogs

BLG have not been the favorite this season

Time totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 17 BLG games

 

OMG have won their past three series and six or their past seven games but it’s been against Rogue Warriors, LNG, and Dominus, arguably the three weakest teams in the LPL. Prior to that, OMG took a game off of TOP Esports and Victory Five but lost 0-2 to EDG and RNG. The criticism I’ve always given to this team is that they’re stuck in the past and playing “old” LOL. They just want to lane forever, they never want to get out onto the map and make things happen until they’ve accrued enough individual advantages and with good but not great laners this isn’t a very effective strategy. That’s changed a bit. OMG have been looking much more confident and have shown some willingness to play a more uptempo style, at least against teams they’re confident they can beat. While I don’t want to jump to conclusions and say they’re turning over a new leaf entirely, it’s certainly a welcome change.

Overall, I think OMG are a better team than my colleagues and I treat them and seem to have differentiated themselves from the true bottom of the barrel. The model likes them as well, placing them just below league average overall.

BiliBili have returned to Meteor in the jungle and that’s been a welcome change as they’ve been competitive in their past two series beating LNG 2-0 and taking a game off of Invictus in a competitive 1-2 series loss. Meteor gives this team their identity back. l3est16 wasn’t playing poorly but it just wasn’t the same, uptempo, priority-centric game play with him in the lineup. We talked a lot about BiliBili on the podcast and how their numbers don’t tell the story of what this team really looks like. Don’t forget that.

Stylistically this seems like a bad matchup for OMG but I’m not entirely sure that’s the case anymore with this more recent approach. The model favors OMG rather heavily in both recent performance and season long performance in a number of economy and objective metrics. While I like BLG, I do think OMG are being undervalued here and deserve a play.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.8

Time-projected: 26.63

Odds Weighted: 24.87

Underdog Win: 24.87

“G” Projected Total: 26.1 kills

There is a huge gap between the book line and my projected total which actually makes sense given that if you removed the past few series from each of these teams this probably would have been one of the lowest possible totals you could come up with in the LPL. BiliBili, despite their pace, tend to get a lead and take awhile to close with it which leads to lower CKPM numbers and lower scoring games. In the past, OMG have wanted to not fight and just lane forever leading to lower scores. That simply hasn’t been the case of late with either of these teams.

We’re at some risk for split push strategies. OMG have shown a willingness to play picks like Fiora as a way to manage Mordekaiser, Ornn, and Volibear type selections in the top lane, all of which are popular right now. Even baking in some of that risk I think this is an easy play on the over.

 

OMG game times: 33.01 / 34.1 / 32.05 (average / in wins / in losses)

BLG  game times:  30.47 / 31.4 / 29.97 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.74 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.87 minutes

My projections suggest an under in this position but given that I think OMG have a reasonable likelihood of taking this down and that they could employ a number of different styles to victory I don’t entirely trust this number. OMG wins have been on the slower side overall but not lately. Still this is a pass.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: OMG 52.94% / BLG 35.29%

First Tower: OMG 35.29% / BLG 41.17%

First Dragon: OMG 52.94% / BLG 52.94%

First Herald: OMG 52.94% / BLG 52.94%

A lot of these numbers are really close but juiced heavily on both sides. I’ll be taking the OMG first blood since we still have an edge through the vig.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: OMG -103 (1.03 units)

Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +262 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first blood @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first blood @ -125 (1.25 units)

 

 

Invictus Gaming -357 (-1.5 maps @ +104) vs

eStar +259 (+1.5 maps @ -133, -1.5 @ +620)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -104

Time Total: 32:00 (over +118 / under -154)

Starting Lineups:

IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Baolan

eStar – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC

Trends:

Invictus are 5-2 straight up, 2-5 against the map spread as favorites this season

Invictus are 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the map spread as favorites of -200 or greater

Invictus are 9-9 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 11 out of 18 games where IG were favorites

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 13 out of 18 games where IG were favorites

eStar are 0-5 straight up, 3-2 against the map spread as underdogs this season

eStar are 4-9 against the kill spread as underdogs

Kill totals have gone OVER in 13 out of 23 eStar games

Time Totals have gone UNDER 13 out of 23 eStar games

 

We talked pretty extensively about this one on The Gold Card Podcast this week with regard to both of these teams being fairly perplexing this season so if you’re curious check that one out, we also had a 15+ minute conversation about TheShy specifically.

Invictus are a team that’s going through a bit of an evolution. They’ve been a lot better of late and are actually drafting and playing with intent instead of impulse as they’ve become famous for over the years. If you were to remove herald control from the equation, Invictus measure out as the #3 team in the LPL in my objective/economy model ahead of all but Victory Five and TOP Esports but that number is only going to start to climb as they’ve shifted focus to actually paying attention to and prioritizing rift herald in their past three matches. You can see it. Different strategies, good decision making (for the most part…), Rookie playing at an otherworldly level right now, and all three supports playing well give a lot of reason to be optimistic about Invictus.

eStar have been a really tough team to evaluate. In many ways they’re the same team from Spring split, pushing the pace, making individual outplays, demanding answers to early aggression, and almost constantly fighting. Fenfen stepped in for Cryin and while he hasn’t been the all-world level that Cryin was, he hasn’t been that much worse.

The thing is, eStar aren’t winning games.

Their film throughout the season has looked pretty good to me. They have the right idea on what to do and frequently execute it well but they’ve slowly been deteriorating over the course of the season. The Victory Five series was frustrating. They had a monster lead in game two, threw it back, V5 then threw it back, and eStar threw it back again. Who knows what happens in game three. I see a game like that and the film the rest of the season and think that this team can’t possibly be as bad as their record. I still think that but 2-7 eStar aren’t “really a 7-2 or 6-4 team” instead I think they’re closer to a 5-4 or 4-5 team.

eStar are significantly better than their statistics and current record but after a brutal past two series it’s hard not to anticipate a bnnit of defeat setting in. They’ve had an extremely difficult schedule of Suning, V5, Vici, FPX, and RNG in their past five matches. Invictus aren’t going to be any easier.

I like Invictus here. My model likes Invictus here by almost a full order of magnitude as well. IG have gone back to their “always three games” ways like the 2018-19 versions so it wouldn’t surprise me to see eStar get one here but I do think Invictus get this done. It’s a damn shame too because I like eStar but this is just yet another tough out.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.24

Time-projected: 27.77

Odds-Weighted: 25.53

Underdog Win: 26.37

“G” Projected Total: 26.85 kills

Given Invictus’ propensity to play split pushing compositions I’m a little bit skeptical to take the over on this high total but I do think I’ll still be doing it given that the time-projected, which uses my projected time totals, still implies that this will be a high CKPM affair. eStar are going to be bringing the kitchen sink to this match. It’s borderline must-win territory for them and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go down swinging like they always do. There’s also the added bonus that both of these teams tend to fight over dragons instead of ceding them.

 

IG game times:  31.19 / 29.01 / 34.57 (average / in wins / in losses)

EST game times: 32.49 / 31.82 / 33.01(average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.84 minutes

Odds Weighted:  31.57 minutes

Passing on the time total here although I’d lean under given that, other than the wild last series, eStar tend to win and lose quickly. Invictus have been surprisingly adept at drawing games out from a deficit to give them a chance to win.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: IG 32% / EST 52.17%

First Tower: IG 52% / EST 73.91%

First Dragon: IG 64% / EST 60.87%

First Herald: IG 32% / EST 47.83%

First tower for eStar is a solid value although the fact that Invictus are still 52% with one of the worst first herald rates in the four major leagues is damn impressive. I’ll be taking a half stake on this. Invictus have actually been prioritizing herald and contesting in more in their past three series so I don’t think this is the slam dunk play it would have been prior. First dragon is similar considering both teams place a premium on this objective.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Invictus -357 (3.57 units)

Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +104 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first tower @ +103 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first tower @ +111 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first dragon @ +116 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first dragon @ +116 (0.5 units)

 

  

LCK Summer 2020

Week 4 – Day 3

 

 

Team Dynamics +339 (+1.5 maps @ +110, -1.5 @ +811) vs

Gen.G -500 (-1.5 maps @ -137)

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -112 / -7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +123 / under -161)

Trends:

Gen.G are 4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites this season

Gen.G are 7-3 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill totals have gone OVER in 6 out of 10 games where Gen.G were favorites

Time totals have gone UNDER in 6 out of 10 games where Gen.G were favorites including 6 of the past 7

Dynamics are 1-2 straight up, 2-1 against the map spread as underdogs this season

Dynamics are 4-3 against the kill spread as underdogs

Kill totals have gone OVER in 5 out of 7 games where Dynamics were underdogs

Time totals have gone OVER in 5 out of 7 games where Dynamics were underdogs

 

I like Team Dynamics. They’re intelligent, scrappy, creative, and show wisdom beyond their years (although they do have three veterans). Dynamics attack windows before they close both from ahead and behind and are almost always making the highest eV play for whatever game state they’re in. Former Heroes of the Storm pro Rich continues to impress in his debut season.

But it’s Gen.G…

For whatever reason, people seem to have forgotten that this team was #1 after the regular season, had some of the best economy metrics in the world for any region, play a variety of styles, and showed very well at the Mid-Season Cup. In fact they look even better than they did in Spring and likely should have defeated both DragonX and T1 if not for some absolutely ridiculous plays in both series to steal them away.

This team is really, REALLY good. They still grade out as one of the top teams in the world in my model as well. Gen.G should dominate in this series.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.85

Time-projected: 23.17

Odds Weighted: 26.67

Underdog Win: 19.41

“G” Projected Total: 24.04 kills

Dynamics past few outings have been lower kill affairs but Gen.G have also been willing to scrap and play a little more aggressively this season lending to their higher kill totals with a KPW of 18.64 which is extremely high for the LCK. Dynamics high 10.01 kills per loss also makes me interested in the over here. This number is entirely too low. I’ll be playing an alternate total spectrum here. The idea is to diversify exposure to create synthetic value.

 

TD game times: 33.03 / 32.51 / 33.61 (average / in wins / in losses)

GEG  game times: 31.54 / 30.01 / 33.83 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time:  32.28 minutes

Odds Weighted:  32.10 minutes

Lean to the under but the line is about right.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: GEG 66.66% / TD 40%

First Tower: GEG 66.66% / TD 66.66%

First Dragon: GEG 60% / TD 60%

First Herald: GEG 80% / TD 46.66%

I’d normally lean to the heavy dog catching plus odds on first tower when the stat is even but Gen.G’s overwhelming first herald rate helps out their first tower rate quite a bit.

Gen.G first blood is also within range due to the huge delta.

The odds are in line for the rest of these so I’ll be passing on those.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -128 (1.28 units)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first blood @ -156 (0.78 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first blood @ -156 (0.78 units) 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ +102 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ +121 (0.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ +143 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ +167 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -122 (0.61 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -104 (0.26 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ +116 (0.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ +136 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ +160 (0.1 units)

 

 

KT Rolster -204 (-1.5 maps @ +157) vs

SANDBOX Gaming +158 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +392)

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +138 / under -182)

Trends:

KT Rolster are 2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the map spread (same loss, 0-2 to Dynamics)

KT Rolster are 3-3 against the kill spread as favorites

Sandbox are 1-5 straight up, 2-4 against the map spread as underdogs this season

Sandbox are 6-8 against the kill spread as underdogs

Time totals have gone UNDER in 9 out of 16 Sandbox games and 9 out of 16 KT games

 

KT pulled the big upset win over DragonX and looked pretty good doing it although I’d say DragonX crippled themselves with their game one draft and generally looked pretty bad relative to expectations playing arguably their worst series of 2020. Still, beating DRX is no easy feat and KT did it with Smeb subbing at support since star Tusin was ill. Maokai OP right?

Sandbox pulled an upset of their own besting Team Dynamics and taking care of business against the dumpster fire that is Hanwha Life. I thought Sandbox looked better in the Dynamics series. They actually trailed Hanwha and took some time to close out the game in both spots. I’m not overreacting to the two game winning streak here. Sandbox hasn’t really impressed me with any of their wins as much as their opponents have not played particularly well and they haven’t completely dominated or anything of that sort.

While I was optimistic for both of these teams before the season and both seem to be on that trajectory, I think KT’s ceiling is significantly higher and with way more moving  parts involved, I think the fact that they’re ahead of schedule bodes well for their chances of making playoffs in a competitive LCK this season.

The model has this as a fairly even series. I don’t think it is and that KT are deserving favorites and dominate here especially if Tusin is back in the lineup (watch for that announcement on social media and the Discord). I appreciate the newfound confidence Sandbox have but KT will be a much more difficult opponent as they round into form.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.28

Time-projected: 22.16

Odds Weighted: 21.76

Underdog Win: 20.28

“G” Projected Total: 22.07 kills

Model suggests and over, we’ll take the over. Kill totals are surprisingly close to even in the LCK this split at a 52/48% split (under/over).

 

KT game times: 32.18 / 33.86 / 30.88 (average / in wins / in losses)

SB  game times: 31.67 / 33.92 / 30.65 (average / in wins / in losses)

cAVG Game Time: 31.93 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.31 minutes

Too much juice.

 

Other Markets:

First Blood: KT 68.75% / SB 31.25%

First Tower: KT 46.66% / SB 60%

First Dragon: KT 60% / SB 53.33%

First Herald: KT 43.75% / SB 56.25%

Most of these are lined accordingly but there is some value on the Sandbox first dragon given this close margin and the odds.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: KT Rolster -204 (2.04 units)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +157

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 20.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 20.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 SB first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 SB first dragon @ +116 (1 unit)

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 5 – Day 1

 

LCS Trends through three weeks:

Favorites are 31-9 outright, 18-22 against the kill spread, and have covered their team total 21 out of 40 games

Underdogs are 9-31 outright, 22-18 against the kill spread, and have covered their team total in 19 out of 40 games

Kill Totals have gone OVER 22 out of 40 games (55%)

Time Totals have gone UNDER 23 out of 40 games (57.5%)

 

 

Team Dignitas +167 vs Immortals -217

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -115 / -6.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 12.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

Dignitas are 0-8 outright, 4-4 against the kill spread this season

Kill totals have gone UNDER in 4 out of 8 Digniats games

Time Totals have gone OVER in 6 out of 8 Dignitas games

Dignitas have covered their team total in 2 out of 8 games (avg: 7.25)

Immortals have only been favorites once this season (loss to CLG)

Immortals are 3-5 against the kill spread but 3-1 since switching to the academy roster

 

The new look Immortals appear to be an upgrade. They definitely should have defeated Team Liquid this past weekend and you could make an argument that the same could be said for Evil Geniuses. They’re confident, aggressive, and are generally showing more energy overall than the previous iteration. How good is this team? I still don’t think they’re very good. Improvement and surprise are pretty easy words to throw around when you were looking like a dead-last quality team. I tend to temper excitement in these kinds of spots.

Dignitas have had some close games of their own but just haven’t pieced together a win. I’d anticipate seeing the Lourlo, Dardoch, Fenix lineup again this week and even though they had a relatively poor showing last week, you saw an idea of what this team wants to be.

Both of these teams are pretty bad and likely the bottom two in the league. I think people are crowning Immortals as better off the back of two decent games against good teams and the opposite for Dignitas. Simply put, I think these teams are essentially the same. Hold your nose and take the dog. There’s absolutely no way Immortals should be laying -217 to anybody except my beer league team. I’ll also be taking the over despite the CKPM suggesting an under based on average game time. Both of these teams in their newer looks appear to want to be the aggressors and I could see this getting chippy. Dignitas have a 50% first blood rate despite their 0-8 record, the same can’t be said of Immortals who sit at 38%. It’s a small edge but I like Dig first blood here as well.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Dignitas +167 (1 unit)

Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Dignitas first blood @ -108 (1.08 units)

 

 

 

100 Thieves +214  vs FlyQuest -286

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -118 / -7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: OTB

Trends:

 100 Thieves are 0-5 outright, 1-4 against the kill spread as underdogs this season

FlyQuest are 3-1 outright, 1-3 against the kill spread as favorites this season (avg: 8.0)

 

I’m really not buying this 100 Thieves team at all and unfortunately the weakest part of the map for them has to face the strongest part of FlyQuest; the mid-jungle duo.  When we get numbers this large I’m always going to lean toward the underdog especially in best-of-ones but FlyQuest play such textbook, high percentage LOL that unlike other favorites who may experiement, limit-test, disrespect, or overplay against an inferior opponent, FlyQuest have typically remained steadfast and taken care of business just like it’s any other game. They’re grinders.

I like this FlyQuest team and perhaps underestimated the reduction in variance that came with the removal of WildTurtle and V1per from the equation. They’re just so damn consistent. While they’ve struggled to cover the spread in previous games as favorites, they’ve also destroyed better teams like Evil Geniuses and Team Solo Mid and have missed their covers by a total of  3 kills in the two win/not-cover situations. I’ll take FlyQuest to cover the spread here. They’re a significantly better team and unless Ssumday can run away with one I just don’t see many avenues for a competitive game from 100 Thieves.

FlyQuest have been over machines but this number is high. I’d lean to the under but I’ll be passing.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest -7.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

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