Thursday, August 6th Recap

 

Rogue Warriors vs Victory Five  (Net: +1.5 units)

This was a fairly systematic dismantling of the Rogue Warriors. Victory Five looked back in form. Nice “get right” performance before playoffs and kept themselves live for a top four finish while they were at it.

RNG vs BiliBili (Net: -6.71 units)

What a brutal way to go out… for real I almost feel bad for RNG they finally lose in a “not RNG” fashion but in back-to-back games. Good on BLG with the come backs in these games, clearly they’re still playing this out just like a lot of teams. I mentioned in yesterday’s post to not discount these eliminated teams. These are still professionals playing for records and stats and potential future contracts.

The boring part about all of this is that now the playoff picture is set (besides the order).

LPL Total: -5.21 units

I’ll be forthright about this. I don’t think the eight best teams made playoffs and while that’s rarely the case I think there’s a legitimate argument that we have AT LEAST two teams that don’t deserve to be there in Team WE and FunPlus. I thought overall, for all their inconsistencies that RNG, Vici, and EDward outperformed them this season. Hell, recently you could even make and argument for BiliBili. Either way it is what it is and here we stand.

One final look at clinching day. Model compared to actual standings:

 

(from Leaguepedia.com)

 

DAMWON vs Gen.G  (Net: -1.96 units)

It’s unfortunate that game three ended basically at the six minute mark to make a bit of an anticlimactic finish to an otherwise excellent series between two elite teams but regarding that game three, DAMWON continue to show evolution. This team just has an endless arsenal of weapons at their disposal. They even PROPERLY drafted the Karthus in the correct spot for it. Karthus is obviously a powerful pick but he does need a few prerequisites to happen for that to be the case you can’t really just march him out there blind. Two or more lanes with priority, not heavily indexed into magic damage, and an opposing jungler that can’t match your clear or find you and kill you reliably. In those cases he’s unbelievably broken but it’s balanced by the fact that that scenario doesn’t often come up. DAMWON knew when to use it and struck accordingly.

Gen.G looked great in this series besides that herald fight in game three. Pretty clearly two world class teams here but DAMWON legitimately look like one of the single best teams I’ve ever seen at this current moment. Hopefully it lasts.

T1 vs SeolHaeOne (Net: +0.16 units)

Clozer continues to dominate but SeolHaeOne are a mess so hard to really say much else here.

LCK Total: -1.8 units

 

Parlays: -1.63 units

RNG….

Daily Total Net: -8.64 units

 

RNG not taking care of business really kinda blew up our day but c’est la vie.

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 10 – Day 4

 

Suning -182 (-1.5 map @ +167) vs

Vici Gaming +141 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +336)

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -124 / under -107)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -107

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -101 / under -131)

Starting Lineups:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

VG – Cube, Leyan, Zeka, iBoy, Maestro

Trends:

Suning are 6-0 straight up, 2-4 against the map spread as favorites (avg odds: -315)

Suning are 9-7 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 10 out of 16 games where Suning were favored

Vici are 2-5 straight up, 3-4 against the map spread as underdogs (avg odds: +205)

Vici are 9-8 against the kill spread as underdogs

Vici have covered their team total in 10 out of 17 underdog appearances

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 12 out of 17 games where Vici were underdogs

 

Leyan back to the starting position for Vici is, despite popular sentiment, a pretty sizeable upgrade statistically. Vici should be a live underdog here but the time to strike on them has passed. You could have gotten +164 on Vici as recently as last night when we recorded The Gold Card Podcast. I actually think Suning are a value now. Those that have been following along will know that I’ve been one to go to bat for Vici this season. As you can see by the ratings above, Vici grade out better than many playoff teams and unfortunately a handful of close losses ended up costing them their season.  I’d expect them to be competing here but Suning are legitimately good and I think we’re saving close to 40 cents compared to where they were yesterday. Give me the value favorite.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 23.56

Time-projected: 24.3

Odds-Weighted: 24.01

Underdog Win: 23.56

“G” Projected Total: 23.96 kills

Right on the money. I’ll pass.

 

SN game times: 33.0 / 32.27 / 34.02(average / in wins / in losses)

VG game times: 32.67 / 30.87 / 34.02 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.83 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.87 minutes

Again, right on the money. No play.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: SN 38.89% / VG 51.43%

First Tower: SN 55.555% / VG 54.29%

First Dragon: SN 41.67% / VG 45.71%

First Herald:  SN 44.44% / VG 62.86%

Value on Vici first blood and first herald by the numbers.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Suning -182 (2.73 units)

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +167 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Vici first blood @ -108 (0.54 units)

Prop: Map 2 Vici first blood @ -105 (0.525 units)

Prop: Map 1 Vici first herald @ -109 (0.545 units)

Prop: Map 2 Vici first herald @ -109 (0.545 units)

 

 

 

JD Gaming -714(-1.5 maps @ -182) vs

OMG +458 (+1.5 maps @ +141, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -111 / +8.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -124 / under -107)

Starting Lineups:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Eric, Sora

Trends:

JDG are 12-2 straight up, 7-7 against the map spread as favorites

JDG are 20-15 against the kill spread as favorites (3-7 in past four matches)

Time Totals have gone UNDER in 21 out of 35 games where JDG were favored (avg total: 32.21)

OMG are 2-10 straight up, 8-4 against the map spread as underdogs

OMG are 17-14 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg spread: +5.42)

 

I’ve been preaching that OMG are a bad team but not as bad as perception all season long. They’re perpetually underrated by the books. That said, you have to pick your spots with them. They can take maps or series off middle of the table teams but struggle against the elite teams unless they’re on the slower side of things (early season IG, recent TOP, etc). That’s part of why I liked them so much against Team WE. OMG are awful early in the game. They rely on getting to mid and late game or for Curse to hard carry them. What’s weird is that their late game economy is garbage (worst in the league) but they actually play pretty well once they get there. So a team like WE can’t really punish them where they’re weakest which is early. JDG, perhaps more than anyone besides maybe V5, are the team to punish that.

We’ve seen a lot of upsets the past week or so (August LPL lol) but as I’ve said every day, don’t let elimination or other motivation narratives dictate your handicap of a game. It’s something to consider just like anything else and that’s it. It doesn’t define it. JDG should smash this series. This is a poor stylistic matchup for OMG and JDG are a world class team.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 27.87

Time-projected: 28.4

Odds-Weighted: 26.69

Underdog Win: 25.565

“G” Projected Total: 27.65 kills

The model likes a play on the over here and I was leaning that way but I really do think this has the potential to be a speed run type scenario where JDG just win too fast for it to really be a high kill game so I’m going to pass.

 

 

JDG game times: 31.57 / 32.52 / 29.51 (average / in wins / in losses)

OMG game times: 32.91 / 34.12 / 32.16 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.24 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.25 minutes

This total is extremely low at 31:00 but JDG have been speed running people recently and with how poor OMG are in the early game I’d actually expect this to come in under. Only 15 of JDG’s 35 games have gone under this total though so I won’t be paying for it.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: JDG 45.71% / OMG 47.72%

First Tower: JDG 42.86% / OMG 28.21%

First Dragon: JDG 62.86% / OMG 53.85%

First Herald: JDG 42.86% / OMG 41.03%

Value on OMG first blood and first herald as we frequently see with big underdogs. I’ll play each for a half unit.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -182 (2.73 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first blood @ +113 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first blood @ +113 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first herald @ +123 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first herald @ +123 (0.5 units)

 

 

 

 

LCK Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 2

 

 

Afreeca Freecs -435 (-1.5 maps @ -112) vs

Team Dynamics +303 (+1.5 maps @ -112, -1.5 @ +612)

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -116 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +111 / under -147)

Trends:

Afreeca are 7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the map spread as favorites

Afreeca are 14-1 against the kill spread as favorites (every game besides the one loss covered)

Their average kill spread is -5.21 as favorites

Dynamics are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 against the map spread as underdogs

Dynamics are 11-13 against the kill spread as underdogs

Dynamics are the one underdog to take a map off of Afreeca this season

 

We’ve talked about it a lot but Afreeca have been the bully that can’t pick on kids their own size but completely shove all the smaller kids in a locker. Afreeca as evidenced by the above trends (14-1 against the kill spread as favorites is hilarious). However, Dynamics were the one underdog to do it. Does that mean they will this time? No, but Dynamics are an underrated team. Dynamics have taken maps off of Sandbox, T1, Afreeca, and both series against KT Rolster. While I think they’re maybe a cut below Afreeca and KT Rolster (maybe half a tier) they’re definitely a decent team and I think they’re being undervalued here.

This price opened Afreeca -278 earlier in the week which was even pushing it for me and has been bet up all the way to -435 which is absurd.  At this price it’s hard not to take some Dynamics but I do think they’re a live dog here. It’s possible Afreeca get figured out a bit over the course of the season AND the bottom/mid teams improve a bit to bring this closer to where it should be. Below is the economy/objective model and you can see, Afreeca aren’t particularly great and are definitely not deserving of being favored by this much despite their ridiculous record against the bottom half of the table. This line is WAY disrespectful to Dynamics. (TD = Team Dynamics). You could also play the kill spread in this series for Dynamics.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 22.32

Time-projected: 23.94

Odds-Weighted: 24.98

Underdog Win: 22.38

“G” Projected Total: 23.74 kills

I’d lean toward the over but these games could go a number of directions. I’m going to pass.

 

AF game times: 31.2 / 31.7 / 30.63 (average / in wins / in losses)

DYN game times: 32.44 / 34.25 / 31.35 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 31.82 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.74 minutes

Juiced under seems like the play but Afreeca have actually taken their time in a lot of their wins (just not recently). Again, weird to anticipate the game script here especially because Dynamics aren’t afraid to think outside of the box with team compositions. I’ll pass.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: AF 57.14% / DYN 37.5%

First Tower: AF 39.29% / DYN 46.88%

First Dragon: AF 32.14% / DYN 53.13%

First Herald:  AF 42.86% / DYN 40.63%

Some of these lines are whacked out. There is also an errant +138 on first tower for Dynamics map 1 vs -109 for map two. I love that +138… just sayin’. These are gonna look selective but it’s because there’s like 50 points between some of these prices. I’ll take the plus money props in favorable categories.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Dynamics +1.5 maps @ -112 (2.24 units)

Moneyline: Dynamics +303 (1 unit)

Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +612 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first tower @ +138 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Dynamics first herald @ +115 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Dynamics first dragon @ +118 (1 unit)

 

 

 

KT Rolster -526 (-1.5 maps @ -137) vs

Hanwha Life Esports +332 (+1.5 maps @ +103, -1.5 @ +655)

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -116 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -116 / +6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -119)

Trends:

 

I mentioned on yesterday’s post that this was a look ahead spot and have already bet KT Rolster to sweep this series. Luckily the line hasn’t moved much.

While Hanwha have looked a little bit better and clearly better than SeolHaeOne, that isn’t really saying much. This isn’t a good team and unless Viper and Lehends go ballistic they’re just so disadvantaged on the top side of the map that it’s tough to overcome despite improvements from Dudu and Mireu. For KT Rolster, I still expect this team to continue to gel and perhaps “peak” at the right time around now. They’re on the outside looking in for a playoff spot right now but I do think they could potentially overcome Afreeca for that final playoff position.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 21.85

Time-projected: 23.35

Odds-Weighted: 20.29

Underdog Win: 22.8

“G” Projected Total: 21.83 kills

 

KT game times: 33.14 / 33.95 / 32.59 (average / in wins / in losses)

HLE game times: 31.0 / 35.04 / 30.1 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.07 minutes

Odds Weighted: 32.41 minutes

 

Other markets:

First Blood: KT 60% / HLE 36.36%

First Tower: KT 53.33% / HLE 27.27%

First Dragon: KT 73.33% / HLE 42.42%

First Herald:  KT 60% / HLE 42.42%

Most of these are juiced out of range.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -137 (1.37 units)

 

Parlay (2): KT Rolster -1.5 maps + JDG -1.5 maps @ +171 (1 unit)

 

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Week 8 – Day 1

 

LEC Trends through seven weeks:

Favorites are 38-37 straight up, 34-41 against the kill spread (avg spread: -5.59)

Kill Totals have gone UNDER in 40 out of 75 games (avg total: 23.05)

Time Totals have gone OVER in 40 out of 75 games (avg total: 32.0, mostly OTB)

Favorites have covered their team total just 28 times (avg total: 13.67)

Underdogs have covered their team total 43 times (avg total: 8.83)

 

The LEC can be a bizarre league to handicap because it’s easy to be caught up in the frustrating of the parity of it all. After a Spring split where favorites went an unprecedented 73-25 straight up (including playoffs) it’s a bit jarring to have this much of a correction. Until the final week in Spring, it was literally profitable to lay massive money lines over and over (you would have been up about +1.9% ROI until week nine just laying every favorite moneyline blind).

Obviously things have changed, the bottom teams have improved significantly, the meta has mad it much more difficult to differentiate yourself, and many of the veteran teams struggled to adapt to the “new” League of Legends. In many ways it make sense that we’d have a correction but people still act surprised. Ultimately I’ll remind everyone, and it’s been the theme of the season, don’t fall into the trap of overreaction and recency bias. The truth is MOST things are somewhere in the middle (that old Bell curve….). It’s often not as bad as it looks (see Fnatic, G2) and it’s sometimes not quite as good as it looks either (MAD Lions).

All of this is to say Europe more than any other region is a test of your mettle. Keep an eye on the film, don’t be results oriented, and always question your assumptions because they’re often incorrect. Drop the ego and be pragmatic. Be “real” with yourself. It’ll make you a better handicapper/DFS player/analyst.

 

Team Vitality +195 vs Rogue -256

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (0ver -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -122 / -6.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105 / under -137)

Trends:

Rogue are 7-2 straight up, 6-3 against the kill spread as favorites (lost their past two matches outright)

Underdogs have only covered their team total in 2 out of 9 appearances against Rogue (avg total: 8.05)

Vitality are 6-7 straight up, 7-6 against the kill spread as underdogs (avg odds/spread: +172 / +6.12)

Vitality have covered their team total in six of their past seven matches (avg total: 8.79)

In their last meeting Rogue won but Vitality covered the spread and the time total, kill total, and both team totals came in UNDER.

 

Rogue are definitely deserving favorites here but many are questioning them after dropping two of their last three. They also suffer from hive-mind style mischaracterization. This isn’t a “slow” or “more controlled” team just because the numbers dictate that. Nor do they lack versatility just because they don’t play every single weird, outside the box pick. They have plenty of tools at their disposal and are capable of wielding all of them with high proficiency. For my money, Rogue are the best team in the LEC. They’re remarkably consistent in the first twenty minutes of the game which is the most important thing in LOL right now. I believe Bwipo said it on an episode of Summoning Insight but (paraphrase) “Being good in LOL is being consistent. The best players are consistent. Not challenger in solo queue? It’s because you’re not consistent.”

That said, Vitality aren’t chopped liver. They’ve been steadily improving over the course of the season and have been consistently undervalued. Milica  is really starting to come into his own and with Skeanz back in the lineup it’s given Vitality a “punch” they’ve needed to energize their early game and help them jump out to leads.

Anybody is capable of beating anybody in the LEC but I do think Rogue is the right side here. I’ll be playing just the kill spread despite the short total. The kill total is in play here as well. 20.5 is a really short number and despite the low combined kills per minute between these two squads they also share a fairly long average game time of 34+ minutes. Combining the two projects to roughly a 21.4 total. I’ll take a half stake play on the over.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -108 (0.54 units)

 

 

Origen -112 vs Excel -112 

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -115 / +0.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5  / 10.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +109 / under -144)

 

There are reasonable arguments you could make for either side of this matchup. Origen have looked terrible and Excel, while unimpressive, have been fairly solid on a game-to-game basis recently. From a numbers standpoint, Excel is the play here no question. They’re the “value.” The other end of this argument is that “it’s Origen” and “form is temporary and class is forever.” You could counter that with “that’s old school thinking, get with the times.” This argument could go on forever.

To me, Origen have done a lot of egregious stuff on tape but they’ve also done a lot of intelligent things that just haven’t panned out. It’s remarkably similar to G2 earlier this season where you could see them making intelligent trades to pull a team around while buying time and trading up but that style of play isn’t good anymore. Season ten LOL is about throwing right hooks and uppercuts, landing those haymakers. What’s weird to me is that Origen were an excellent team fighting team, it was their calling card, but I suppose it’s just a different vibe now. The weird experiemental phase they went through earlier this season ended up like a dividend paying stock that tanks in value so hard that your payoff isn’t worth it. It’s left a sour taste in the mouths of a lot of people.

Not that this is entirely the case with Origen but it’s as good a time as any to remind people that it’s VERY EASY to look bad in season ten. All of the tools are in the hands of the snowballing team and it can make even good teams look silly in some games. I mentioned earlier that it’s a test of your mental fortitude…. anyway I digress.

I’m going to pass on a side in this game but you could argue I think Origen take it down but I can’t really justify it outside of my “gut.” If either of these teams get to plus money I’ll take whoever that ends up being. Another way to play this one is through alternate kill spreads to create a synthetic middle for yourself. For example: if you can get plus money on a -3.5 for both teams you create a scenario where you’re essentially betting on “one team wins by 3.5 or better” and collecting the change. If it was -3.5 @ +120 and -3.5 @ +112 you’re collecting minimum 12 cents as long as it doesn’t land under 3.5 for either side. Up to you. I could actually see the game panning out that way.

I’m also keeping an eye on this total. Projections suggest an under play but I think we could see these teams get heated with their season on the line here. Conversely you could argue that it makes them extra tight and over conservative. Keep an eye on this total. If we get a 19.5 I’d take a shot at the over. 

My Picks:

no wager

(lean Origen and/or a synthetic middle both teams -3.5 or 4.5 kills at plus money to create a small win on a <3.5 kill win)

 

 

Fnatic -196 vs Schalke 04 +152

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -108 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -131)

Trends:

Fnatic are  7-5 straight up, 4-8 against the kill spread as favorites

Fnatic have covered their team total in 3 out of 12 appearances as favorites (avg total: 14.25)

Schalke are 5-8 straight up, 7-6 against the kill spread as underdogs

Schalke have won their past four games as underdogs (vs G2, Misfits, Excel, Origen)

 

This is yet another match on this slate that is a test of the form vs class argument and how much weight you put on it. Those that listened the podcast this week know that I’m a believer in Fnatic primarily because I view it a bit differently than most do. Fnatic are at this point even after playing about as poorly as I could see this roster playing over the course of a season. Most people look at that as a bad thing or perhaps a sign of the end creeping up on this team and while that may be true eventually, it’s hard for me not to make a positive regression argument here. Imagine if this team figures “it” out (it being this season and meta right now in a competitive league). Skies the limit as far as I’m concerned. I actually like Fnatic’s read on things and all of the interviews and podcasts and talk shows I’ve heard them on don’t sound nearly as “doom and gloom” as I think a lot of people are interpreting it to me. They’re a veteran team that’s being real about stuff… anyway I digress yet again…

Schalke look legitimately good. I don’t think this is a fluke or anything like that. I like their read on the metagame and they’re playing relaxed (in a good way) and with a lot of confidence. While they aren’t mathematically eliminated, Schalke are more or less playing with nothing to lose at this point and that can be scary. In many ways this is exactly the kind of opponent Fnatic don’t want to face. I’m positive they’d rather face another team in a high pressure situation where their veteranship would give them an advantage. The pressure is way more on Fnatic here than Schalke.

As happy as I am for Schalke I can’t help but think Fnatic takes care of this. I don’t think their film is quite as bad as a lot of people do and the metagame is in a great spot for them. Combine that with the regression factor I mentioned earlier and I’m going to trust class over form in this case. They faced two great teams in G2 who seemingly learned how to play LOL again in a week and Rogue. I can’t fault anybody for those losses.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Fnatic -5.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 25.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)

 

Misfits +179 vs MAD Lions -233

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -103 / -5.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -119 / under -111)

Trends:

MAD are 8-3 straight up, 8-3 against the kill spread (same games) as favorites

MAD have covered their team total in 8 out of 11 games as favorites, their opponents 6 out of 11

Kill Totals have gone OVER in 8 out of 11 games where MAD were favored including the past seven in a row

Misfits are 3-5 straight up, 5-3 against the kill spread as underdogs

Favorites have covered their team total in just 3 out of 8 appearances against Misfits

Misfits won the last outing between these two 22-5 in just under 27 minutes

 

I’m going to have more written for the trends than this actual handicap. MAD probably win but you’re signing up for a higher variance team is the long and short of it. I still think they’re one of the elite LEC teams and that Misfits are easily exploitable for a team like MAD that will aggressively attack weaknesses in the draft. I like MAD alt kill spreads as this could be a blow out.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: MAD -5.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Spread: MAD -8.5 kills @ +146 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: MAD -9.5 kills @ +182 (0.25 units)

 

 

G2 Esports -270 vs SK Gaming +203

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +101 / under -134)

Trends:

G2 are 7-7 straight up, 6-8 against the kill spread as favorites

SK Gaming are 6-3 straight up, 6-3 (same) against the kill spread as underdogs

 

This is intriguing because a lot of it comes down to your “trust” level in both of these teams. To me, I’ve been watching this game a long time and at the risk of sounding arrogant, you sometimes just see “it” with a team. Last weekend G2 looked like a team that flipped a light switch from “we’re lost” to “we’ve figured this out now.” The thing is, it’s one weekend so you could just as easily argue that they go back to what wasn’t working it was all a fluke. To me their drafts showed correct intent and they followed through on it with much crisper execution than we’ve seen from them all season. My immediate gut reaction was the Happy Gilmore scene where he sinks the long putt, turns to Shooter McGavin and says “Happy learned how to putt… uh oh!”

(Happy Gilmore Gif)

 

SK Gaming are undoubtedly the value play here. They’re a legitimately good team and I think they’re being undervalued because G2 are permanently overvalued because of their history and books placing a premium on their internal pre-season ratings. You’re basically always overpaying for G2 so when you can get a good team against them at what many perceive as still climbing out of a low point there’s an argument to be made for an SK wager here. I, for one, am not getting in the way of this G2 team from here on out unless I see some more red flags along the way. It’s a bit of a gut handicap yet again but they look like they miraculously figured things out in a week which is just insane to me. I’ll be passing this game but leaning G2 and playing the under 26.5 since it’s both a high total and both teams are under a lot of pressure to perform meaning this could be a little tighter than usual (which also favors SK by the way).

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

 

LCS Summer 2020

Week 9 – Day 1

 

These will be added Friday afternoon.

 

Dignitas +445 vs Cloud 9 -714

 

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -122 / -10.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +137 / under -184)

Trends:

Cloud 9 are 3-5 in their past 8 as favorites and are 3-5 against the kill spread (same games)

Dignitas have gone 4-4 in their past 8 as underdogs and are 7-1 against the kill spread in that span

 

They aren’t eliminated from playoffs yet but this is an absolute nightmare of a stylistic matchup for Dignitas who have really struggled to NOT fall behind in games. It’s not every game but they’ve had a lot of suspect drafts and tend to overindex into scaling without a way to really bridge themselves to that point. Their comps don’t always have a lot of cohesion so transtioning has been a struggle for them in the draft and in play.

It’s unlikely but Cloud 9 could still catch Liquid for the #1 seed and I’d expect them to be playing here to at least secure a top two seed. I know Cloud 9 have faltered of late but they should roll here. Dignitas are not the type of team I could see them losing to even if Dardoch goes absolutely berserk early. Dignitas haven’t even been consistent when they do get leads.

10.5 is a massive kill spread and with a low total I’m always going to be tempted to get a piece of it but I’m staying away from this one. Cloud 9 should roll.

My Picks:

no wager

 

Golden Guardians +135 vs Team Solo Mid -172

 

Kill Total: 20.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -119 / -5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -103 / under -129)

Trends:

TSM are 9-4 straight up, 5-8 against the kill spread as favorites

Kill Totals have gone OVER in in 5 out of 13 games where TSM were favored

Golden Guardians are 3-5 straight up, 6-2 against the kill spread as underdogs

 

Golden Guardians have been playing quite well of late as have TSM so this should actually be a pretty good matchup on Friday night. While both teams have already secured a playoff position, their seeding could end up mattering quite a bit so I’d expect both of these teams to show up for this one as a potential playoff warmup. TSM won the first meeting decisively but Golden Guardians have also looked significantly since then.

I think TSM have been the more consistent team overall but Golden Guardians are actually quite close in most measurables and have been playing very confidently over the course of the second half. My only real concern with Golden Guardians is that five of their seven losses are to the top four teams. Other than their win against Cloud 9 last week  their only other win was against a slumping FlyQuest. They’ve had some trouble with the better teams.

The underdogs are worth a play here. TSM are deserving favorites but I think this is just a little rich for them given the current state of the Guardians. Split exposure on the moneyline and kill spread. I also like the over for a half stake.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +5.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +135 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: OVER 20.5 @ -120 (0.6 units)

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