Thursday, August 27th Recap

TOP Esports vs JD Gaming (Net: -6.19 units)

Overall a super entertaining series for the LPL finals but a few takeaways:

1) Individually this was a very high level mechanical showcase but team play and overall strategy was not particularly good for this series, especially given the level we’ve come to expect from these teams. I’m not sure if it was a looser series because both teams had clinched worlds and this was essentially for the LPL title and the #1 seed but it definitely felt like five solo queue games if I’m being perfectly honest.

2) Yuyanjia had a tremendous series. I’ve been saying all year long that this kid has continued to improve and isn’t just riding on the coat tails of his star teammates. He’s been an absolute stud. Give him credit.

3) Zoom ended up with a good series on the box score and a few highlight plays but he’s going to need to diversify and add some of these counterpicks to his pool or JDG are going to need to come up with some creative solutions against the elite teams at Worlds if the meta remains even remotely close to similar.

4) Hopefully we see a higher level of overall team play from both of these teams than we did in this series, as fun as it was. It wasn’t terrible or anything like that but it was significantly below the level you’d expect, especially from JDG who are typically a very intelligent team. They’ll need to elevate if they want to compete with the DAMWON’s and Gen.G’s as well as representatives from other leagues.

5) …. imagine taking the under kill totals like I did in these games… I guess I didn’t think about the “loose play” narrative given both of these teams had already secured a #1 or #2 seed at worlds.

Really fun to watch but analytically a little disappointing. Still, if you enjoy a bloodbath these were superb!

 

 

LPL Summer 2020

Regional Qualifier – Round One

 

Suning -159 (-1.5 maps @ +143, -2.5 @ +395, +1.5 @ -345) vs

LGD Gaming +123 (+1.5 maps @ -185, +2.5 @ -588, -1.5 @ +254, -2.5 @ +653)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +233), 4.5 maps (over +165 / under -217)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -110 / +4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Trends:

Suning are 7-1 in against LGD in 2020

Four out of five meetings between these two have gone OVER the kill total

 

So this price is definitely more in line with my actual thoughts on these two teams. As I mentioned the other day in preparing for the third place match, Suning are a better team to me. They do what LGD do but better AND have additional dimensions to their game that LGD lack. Now, do I think a Suning 3-0 in the third place match is indicative of the gap between these two teams? No. As a matter of fact I’m not putting any real stock into the series whatsoever. Both teams looked as if they didn’t want to reveal anything except for maybe Kramer’s Vayne and Peanut’s Lillia to scare off Suning.

With that in mind, this line has moved more than half a dollar toward Suning because of the win and more than a quarter from the -126 opening price. The thing is, to me at least, that I still think Suning deserve to be favored by this much which may not be a very popular opinion. I could understand taking LGD or just fading this matchup altogether simply on the line movement but to me Suning are a significantly better team so I’ll be taking the wager I made immediately after lines were posted and still adding more to it. I like Suning quite a bit.

I doubt we’ll get a 3-0 by either team here like we did on Tuesday but I do think the correct team is favored.

 

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 26.265

Time-projected: 26.42

Odds-Weighted: 25.51

Underdog Win: 26.79

“G” Projected Total: 26.07 kills

I’ll be making the same play that I did the other day creating a synthetic “not 25-28 @ -210” I’d expect we have a chance at unders in this series given that a worlds seed is at stake as opposed to just side choice in this series like we saw the other day but we’re also getting more offerings this time around for a few better numbers. The idea here is that the vast majority of the games these two teams play fall on the margins of kill totals despite their averages meaning they’re either far over and far under but rarely in the middle. If you’re not sure, refer back to Tuesday’s post.

 

SN game times: 33.11 / 32.32 / 34.27 (average / in wins / in losses)

LGD game times: 33.51 / 33.21 / 33.88 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 33.31 minutes

Odds Weighted: 33.445 minutes

Two out of three went over in the last match but both went under  during the regular season meeting. Given the nature of SofM and Peanut you’d think these teams go under but LGD tend to be sloppy with leads and almost always give opponents a window back into the game when they have absolutely no business doing so. Suning are also more than willing to take their time in a game if they’re a higher percent to win it. Their late game macro has been mostly solid this season so they’re quite comfortable there.

Average game time during the LPL playoffs is 31:39.

I’d lean to the overs given the pressure and stakes in this series.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: SN 42.86% / LGD 50%

First Tower: SN 52.38% / LGD 60%

First Dragon: SN 40.48% / LGD 37.5%

First Herald:  SN 42.86% / LGD 45%

Once again these are priced appropriately. A few of these are actually really bizarre but not actionable.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Suning -126 (1.26 units)(from when line was posted)

(add-on) Moneyline: Suning -159 (1.59 units)

Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +143 (0.75 units)

Prop: Exact Suning 3-1 @ +315 (0.25 units)

Spread: Suning -2.5 maps @ +395 (0.25 units)

 

Kill Total: Map 1 synthetic “not 25 through 28” @ ~ -210 via below (2 units to win 0.95 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ +125 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +149 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 28.5 @ +129 (0.34 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 29.5 @ +149 (0.33 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 30.5 @ +174 (0.33 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 synthetic “not 25 through 29” @ ~ -205 via below (2 units to win 0.98 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +149 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 29.5 @ +123 (0.34 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 30.5 @ +143 (0.33 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 31.5 @ +166 (0.33 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 synthetic “not 25 through 28” @ ~ -265 via below (2 units to win 0.755 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ +114 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 23.5 @ +141 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 28.5 @ +136 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 29.5 @ +160 (0.5 units)

 

LCK Summer 2020

Playoffs – Round Two

 

Gen.G -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -333, -2.5 maps @ +115) vs

Afreeca Freecs +588 (+1.5 maps @ +242, +2.5 @ -147, -1.5 @ +1400)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -135 / under +106), 4.5 maps (over +319 / under -455)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -102 / +9.5 @ -128

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -108 / under -122)

Trends:

Afreeca are 3-16 against top four LCK teams this season (including playoffs)

Gen.G are 24-3 against teams non-top four LCK teams (T1, DragonX, DAMWON)

Gen.G have covered the kill spread in 18 out of 27 against bottom six teams (avg spread: -8.4 kills)

 

I’m going to keep this one really simple. We saw T1 inexplicably and inexcusably defeat themselves in a game three to rob us of what could have been a fascinating playoff matchup between rivals. Afreeca did play arguably their best series against an elite team this year even if you exclude that game but we’re now playing best-of-five and against a stronger, more versatile, and more consistent Gen.G team. I’d be utterly shocked to see Gen.G drop more than a game in this series. They were a perfect 12-0 (24-3 in game score) against the bottom six LCK teams and covered LARGE kill spreads 66.67% of the time. Unless you think Afreeca can completely reinvent the wheel AND ride their momentum or Gen.G are going to self-destruct before this match starts, Gen.G aren’t losing this series. The question is how close it will be.

I was really hoping we’d get a -8.5 because I likely would have bet that kill spread in every game at that number. Instead I’m going to keep this one simple and take the Gen.G -1.5 maps and -2.5 maps as well as some other markets.

 

Totals:

cCKPG: 28.49

Time-projected: 27.82

Odds-Weighted: 31.78

Underdog Win: 25.54

“G” Projected Total: 29.36 kills

Gen.G averaged 25.545 CKPG in the second half of the season and 26.89 CKPG for the season against bottom six teams. 21 out of Gen.G’s 43 games went UNDER 22.5 this season and just 6 games landed on or between 23 and 26. In about 38% of Gen.G’s games we saw a combined kill total of 27 or more.

Afreeca averaged 27.05 CKPG in the second half of the season. 23 out of Afreeca’s 41 games went under 22.5 this season and just 6 games landed on or between 23 and 26. In about 29% of Afreeca’s games we saw a combined kill total of 27 or more. Afreeca averaged 25.36 CKPG vs top four teams.

When these teams met this season their kill totals against were 22, 22, 19, and 41.

I absolutely love the over and alternate overs in this series. Even if you think Gen.G slow things down relative to how they were this season out of caution, it’s still worth a dabble because they’ve averaged 18.48 kills per game (19.7 in wins) just themselves against bottom six teams this season.

 

GenG game times:  31.39 / 30.53 / 33.61 (average / in wins / in losses)

AF game times: 32.99 / 34.38 / 31.535 (average / in wins / in losses)

Projected Time (avg of avg game times): 32.19 minutes

Odds Weighted: 31.44 minutes

I’d definitely lean to the under here but have a feeling we’ll potentially see a little caution just to be thorough. I’ll be playing the under for a half stake.

 

Other markets:

First Blood: GEG 60.465% / AF 56.1%

First Tower: GEG 72.09% / AF 43.9%

First Dragon: GEG 65.12% / AF 29.27%

First Herald:  GEG 81.395% / AF 41.46%

Afreeca first blood is a reasonable shot to fire at +113 but I’m passing on these. The rest are reasonably priced.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -333 (6.66 units) \m/ \m/

Spread: Gen.G -2.5 maps @ +115 (2 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ +105 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ +127 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ +149 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ +105 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ +127 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ +149 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 22.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ +111 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ +138 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 25.5 @ +146 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -122 (0.66 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -122 (0.66 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -122 (0.66 units)

 

 

LEC Summer 2020

Losers’ Bracket – Round Two

 

Schalke 04 +124 (+1.5 maps @ -175, +2.5 @ -588, -1.5 @ +254, -2.5 @ +706) vs

MAD Lions -159 (-1.5 maps @ +137, -2.5 @ +392, +1.5 @ -345)

 

Total Maps: 3.5 maps (over -294 / under +220), 4.5 maps (over +175 / under -227)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -125 / -4.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +106 / under -139)

 

This has been one of the most polarizing series I’ve ever seen in the court of public opinion. It seems like people are hardliners one way or the other on it. If you’re not in favor of the Schalke run you’re automatically a “hater” and if you’re not buying it “they suck this is all a fluke.” The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle.

Schalke really have done a lot to improve and their individual players have elevated their play in the second half of the season. This deserves praise and unlike some of my peers, I actually think they deserve the playoff spot they got for the improvements they’ve made. However, I also think people are going a little bit overboard. If you watch Schalke’s games they aren’t really doing anything innovative. They’re extremely predictable. “But Gelati, if they’re so predictable, then why hasn’t anybody stopped them!?!” You’re right. I have no idea but what I can say is that about half of their opponents during the second half AND playoffs have more or less shot themselves directly in the foot to make things extremely difficult or to just flat out lose.

There is are some huge misconceptions with many viewers, particularly more casual ones, about what is good play from one team and poor play from another. It’s a spectrum. Just like in a game like tennis or even baseball, there are forced errors and unforced errors. For you American football fans out there, a fumbled snap still counts as a turnover in favor of the other team and against the team that made it but that’s significantly different than a sack fumble punched out by a defensive end that is consistently beating his man. We have the same things in league.

This is just one of MANY examples of the sort of thing that has happened in favor of Schalke and it was from the last series. A play devolves to chaos after Trick face checks into his own jungle just before this play started after literally watching Schalke walk into his own jungle clearly setting up for a pick with about 15-20 seconds until the second dragon of the game. With limited time and on Lee Sin, Trick takes a calculated risk to take a short path to get vision as soon as possible and is punished for it. SK then mindlessly commit to the play for no reason with only a 500 gold deficit and a superior scaling team. Immediately after that, after the extra damage is handed over for free, we get this gem from ZaZee (I feel bad he was so good this season but just awful in this series). There were only three caster minions under the tower when he initially moved to this play, he’d be lucky to get 1 or 2 if uninterrupted before the tower killed them. He also knew Abbedagge was there.

He eventually dies under his tower after a couple more auto attacks and one more Orianna Q. Keep in mind he has flash and a stopwatch available to use here and simply didn’t use either. This wasn’t any kind of insane outplay by Fakerdagge or whatever people are calling him now. (not taking away from him, he’s been good).  This is a multi-level, multi-mistake sequence. The broadcast? “OH AND HE GETS A SOLO KILL! ABBEDAGGE JUST RUNS HIM DOWN!” They did eventually mention that he didn’t have flash but there’s been a number of these kinds of plays with Schalke over the past few weeks. They’re getting a lot of credit for the things they shouldn’t get credit for and aren’t getting enough credit for the things they are doing. That’s part of what has caused a lot of the polarity in opinions about this series. Add to the mix that MAD weren’t nearly as dominant in their second half and just lost 3-1 to G2 and you can see why people feel this way.

MAD just showed me one of the most admirable losses and some of the strongest mental fortitude that I’ve seen from a young team in my history of playing this game. After being handed a complete shellacking against G2 in game one, they had their creative draft completely mind-gamed and ruined by a late Irelia pick to give their blind Galio no lane that he could go to without getting destroyed. Then a horrific, game-losing level 2-3 engagement snowballed things completely out of control. The game was essentially over barring a miracle. They pulled a few clutch plays out with the Camille/Galio ult combo to claw their way back from the brink …. and still lost the game. Down 2-0 to G2 after a disaster was nearly recovered from… I’ve been in that exact kind of situation before and it is completely soul crushing. What do MAD do? How do they respond? They confidently march the exact comp with a small adjustment out the next game and pull the win out… This team is ready for the big time. They’re creative, ridiculously confident, and have such a strong mental game and attitude that even if Schalke come out and surprise them in this series taking a game one I have complete faith in MAD to bring it back unlike a lot of teams who might crack under the pressure.

Personally I think people are a bit too high on Schalke. This team is quite good and I’d expect them to get a game here with their “bulldozer” style of play against a team that can occasionally get “too cute” and beat themselves. Their style is very no nonsense, we’re going to team fight now which is exploitable but does require you to actually match them. If I can figure this out on film, I’m confident other teams will too. Get a few lanes with priority, don’t lose to yourself, and recall 45 seconds before dragons to meet them there. That or get something done on the other side of the map. MAD have been highly intelligent despite a few comical blunders this season both in-game and out in the draft. I also just think they outclass Schalke in every single position, especially the bottom lane which has relied heavily on Senna which MAD have been the best with and against all season. I expect MAD to dominate Schalke here.

I’ll just mention one other factor and that’s an overcorrection in the line. In week eight, MAD Lions were favorites against Schalke in a best-of-one by -233 / +176. You mean to tell me that three weeks later they’re now more likely to win a best-of-five against a proven best-of-five team than a best-of-one during the regular season? Keep in mind, the run was already a couple of weeks in at this point too so it’s not like hype wasn’t there then either. They did win that match but the point I’m making is that this is a severe overreaction. Even if you’re bullish on Schalke this line isn’t a good one for them and you should be getting the same +176 or better in a best-of-five or it’s a poor value. With that large of a margin it also makes MAD a tremendous value.

This total is extremely high which makes me lean toward the under but with Schalke’s “teamfight only” style right now we could definitely see just fight after fight OR closer fights that result in big swings. I’ll be playing the under for half a stake.

 

My Picks:

 

I jumped on these early in the week when they were posted but I like MAD Lions up to ~ -250 so even at the current number this is a smash spot for me.

Moneyline: MAD -137 (5.48 units)(when posted)

Spread: MAD Lions -1.5 maps @ +153 (2 units)

Spread: MAD Lions -2.5 maps @ +432 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)

 

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