Thursday, October 8th Recap
Team Liquid vs G2 Esports (Net: -3.88 units)
I liked the drafts by both teams in this one but Liquid navigated this opening eight minutes in about the worst way possible and G2 managed to completely blow them out of the water. Not really a lot else to say in this one. Frustrating that it was looking like it would be competitive before Liquid completely botched a few different plays. All we needed was some semblance of a contest.
Machi Esports vs Suning Gaming (Net: +1.0 units)
Bin picked up a level five solo kill and essentially ended this game on the spot. There were a few weird sloppy moments from Suning here but honestly none of it mattered as they had no clean answer to how fed Irelia was going to get and the inferior scaling team composition.
Machi Esports vs G2 Esports (Net: -0.18 units)
G2 pick the Lucian B1 and proceed to commit to a Jhin+Lucian carry comp vs Ornn Graves Orianna Ezreal Alistar. IF they don’t win this game fast they lose. They got a massive lead but managed to punt it back to Machi around the 18 minute mark and managed to give them a few one-for-one trades across the map. HUGE for Machi. At this point Machi got three drakes and it was a cloud soul. They had absolutely no reason to fight until they geared up to a strong point. They could have given up the next three dragons, a baron, whatever and they were winning. They had such a ridiculous scaling advantage it wouldn’t have mattered but thanks to a lot of poor builds and the fact that Machi chose to take back-to-back-to-back team fights for NO REASON WHATSOEVER they lost.
Look, I had G2 spread on this one. I thought they’d roll… and I was still angry Machi found a way to lose this game. They won and punted it not once, not twice, but three separate times. Unforgivable.
Team Liquid vs Suning Gaming (Net: -1.22 units)
Maybe Malphite just isn’t on the radar for a lot of these Eastern teams at all but wow what a great draft by Liquid and a horrible one by Suning walking right into this. The thing with opening on Graves+Twisted Fate is that without a crit carry or mage in the bottom lane and a magic damage dealing top laner you’re heavily indexed not just into physical damage but specifically lethality builders and lethality gets nullified very easily by armor. Malphite happens to get bonuses from stacking armor and Sett mid just had to stack armor as well. Easy draft win from Liquid although Suning nearly managed a few cleanups even while down a lot.
Team Liquid vs Machi Esports (Net: +3.5 units)
One of the most lopsided stomps of the tournament. Not much to say.
Suning Gaming vs G2 Esports (Net: -1.22 units)
I’m not exactly sure how SofM does the things he does sometimes. Keeping up with a Graves as Jarvan after some weird early game fighting and making it look like nothing. He’s just so insanely efficient with his time. It’s as if he knows every single iteration of the flow chart and has the intangibles to read exactly what’s going on elsewhere at all times no matter the game state. It’s truly impressive. That’s not even mentioning the omnistone, flash-less Camille we saw from Bin here that completely bodybag’d the rest of this game.
I’ve been saying all year long but especially in Summer that the SofM and Bin duo has been completely taking over games but because they aren’t big names people don’t want to give the credit. Obviously Bin gets counterpick frequently but he delivers seemingly every single time. That said, I think Angel has actually been having an amazing tournament as well. He had two excellent games against Caps today one as Syndra into Ekko and the next as Akali countering Syndra. I mentioned going into the tournament that if the mid lane meta didn’t matter as much that Suning deserve to be upgraded to the same level as the rest of the top five or six teams. That’s mostly been true but Angel is also playing the best he has all year and is in tip top form. Suning look outstanding.
Tiebreaker: Suning Gaming vs G2 Esports (no wagers, only hedges)
This was looking like another stomp before Suning punted in a few spots and found themselves on the receiving end of a 40+ minute Senna with 130 soul stacks and full build just taking three-quarters of everyone’s health per auto. They made a bad baron call to trade soul to try to split push to end it but opted to fight into the dragon soul, Bin had a hero teleport and caught Caps and Perkz with an ult+barrel crit combo and just deleted Caps and Perkz. Suning got a little lucky in this one but they did dominate the first 30 minutes and probably should have won this before it got to this point. G2 get mad props for finding a way to stall this one out.
Futures+Hedges: Net +2.3 units
Total Net: +0.3 units
Sort of an underwhelming day but Liquid’s disappointing showing in game one against G2 was the big culprit. All we needed was a competitive game for a decent day. G2 also failed to cover a -8.5 landing exactly on 8 due to some nexus diving shenanigans. Bad beats happen, still in the green.
Futures Outlook and Plan
With the first round robin done we have a clearer picture of how this may play out in relation to our futures wagers allowing us to set up hedge situations. Below are the liabilities I have in Group B specifically for group betting or group related wagers.
no futures wagers for group play, some DWG for tournament
Since I don’t really have any group wagers for Group B the only thing I’m on watch for is if DAMWON or JDG are under threat of not making it out of groups due to a couple of early losses.
- If DWG or JDG somehow lose their first two matches I might buy a bit against them but I doubt it happens.
My handicap and selections of the games below is without consideration for my futures wagers which will be updated above. They’re “pure” handicaps for those that didn’t get involved in futures. They will still count in my spreadsheet totals.
Main Event – Group Stage
The way the double round robin works is each team plays a game on each side of the map. For this reason we know based on the previous game which side teams will be on. Blue side has had a noticeable win rate in this tournament. I went back and looked through each match to see if it was primarily favorites winning on that side and that was in fact the case. TOP, DWG, G2, and Gen.G have each played two games on blue side already. The following are the teams that will be playing two blue side games in the second round robin.
While I think the blue side win rate has been inflated by a handful of the strongest teams in the tournament having a good record there, I do think there is an edge to it on this patch regardless of the win rate. The ability to force a red side Nidalee ban or have to deal with it is very potent. It also forces certain teams like Liquid for example who may not play the Nidalee to be susceptible to stronger blinds like Orianna or take away picks like Graves knowing they won’t pick or ban the Nidalee themselves. The counterargument here is that now that these teams have a feel for each other that more specific game plans like niche counterpicks could be unlocked from red side but I think blue has a decided advantage on this patch in general. I’ll be indicating which team is blue side this time around with a (B).
(B) indicates blue side for this match
(B) PSG Talon +691 vs DAMWON Gaming -1111
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -110 / -11.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 17.5
Time Total: OTB
This line has ballooned a bit from -900 or so. We talked a lot on the podcast this week about the fundamental concept of just taking a dog this big in a best-of-one or passing on a side. Don’t lay -1100 with DWG. I wouldn’t lay this kill spread either although they did have an average margin of victory (AMOV) of 11.55 this summer. There’s just too many things that need to go right to cover a spread that large and Talon could pull something weird out.
DAMWON took every single objective until PSG got a cloud drake at 22 minutes and the score ended 15-7. I don’t think we’ll see much of a difference this time around either. I’ll buy this down which I rarely do but 11.5 is just too much. I don’t see DAMWON ever losing this game.
Under towers taken, under dragons taken. I want to take the over on this kill total but this game is a shutout candidate so I’ll pass.
Kill Spread (alt): DAMWON -9.5 kills @ -189 (1.89 units)
Prop: UNDER 11.5 total towers taken @ -163 (1.63 units)(Bet365)
Prop: UNDER 4.5 total dragons taken @ -200 (2 units)(Bet365)
(B) Rogue +345 vs JD Gaming -455
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -103 / -8.5 @ -127
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5
Time Total: OTB
I love getting big plus money on quality teams and it rarely happens outside of international competition. I agree with Josh’s approach from the podcast in that I typically just take big dogs like this agnostically but there are a few spots that I’ll pass on that. The last match between DAMWON and Talon was one of them where I think the gap is big enough to warrant passing. This one is different because I think Rogue are a clear cut above this iteration of Talon.
Rogue get blue side and should be able to secure one of the power pick junglers or a blind mid laner to potentially dictate the pace of this game. Finn has far exceeded my expectations at this tournament so far and while there’s a chance that comes crashing back down to earth here against one of the best in the world in Zoom, I think Rogue can keep this competitive. I’ll be on Rogue kill spreads and a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Over towers taken and over dragons taken. This should be a competitive match.
The Rogue firsts on the tradable objectives like herald and dragon are intriguing at plus money but I already have a lot of exposure to them remaining competitive here and will opt for different markets in this case.
Kill Spread: Rogue +9.5 @ -103 (1.03 units)(Bet365)
Moneyline: Rogue +350 (0.5 units)(Bet365)
Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons slain @ +110 (1 units)(Bet365)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers destroyed @ +151 (0.5 unit)
Prop: OVER 11.5 towers destroyed @ +100 (0.5 unit)(Bet365)
Rogue +518 vs (B) DAMWON Gaming -769
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -114 / -9.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 16.5
Time Total: OTB
Similar logic to the last matchup. Rogue are a high enough quality of team to warrant a play even against two of the tournament favorites. This number is disrespectful to Rogue (surprise….). You don’t get many opportunities to back a team this good at this kind of number just take it. Oh and for reference you’re getting another 50 cents of value compared to earlier this week.
Same as last game.
Kill Spread: Rogue +10.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)(Bet365)
Moneyline: Rogue +550 (0.5 units)(Bet365)
Prop: OVER 11.5 total towers destroyed @ +120 (1 unit)(Bet365)
Prop: OVER 4.5 total dragons slain @ +150 (1 unit)(Bet365)
(B) JD Gaming -769 vs PSG Talon +518
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -118 / +10.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
Similar to DAMWON vs JDG I’ll be buying down to single digits and taking the unders on all the map totals. There’s a chance Talon play this one a little looser since they’ll likely be eliminated at this point but JDG should take care of business here.
Same as the DAMWON approach. Unders on map objectives.
Kill Spread (alt): JDG -8.5 @ -179 (1.79 units)
Prop: UNDER 4.5 total dragons slain @ -192 (1.92 units)
Prop: UNDER 11.5 total towers taken @ -163 (1.63 units)
(you could take a juiced -312 under 12.5 at Bet365 or Pinny)
(B) PSG Talon +184 vs Rogue -238
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -105 / -6.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: OTB
Rogue have taken a little money here as this has moved about 20 cents up from earlier in the week before the day adjustment. I discussed in on the podcast but even if you factor out the first match between these two where Rogue early cheesed Tank, the overall quality of play has been a stark contrast even in losses. Rogue are significantly better team to me. There’s a chance Talon have fixed a few things but Rogue are the side here for sure I actually think this is a value.
Rogue are one of the best early game teams in the West but I do think there’s a chance this one is more competitive and could go a bit longer. I’ll be taking the under 12.5 towers but not the dragons.
Moneyline: Rogue -225 (2.25 units)(Bet365)
Kill Spread: Rogue -6.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)(Bet365)
Prop: UNDER 12.5 total towers @ -163 (1.63 units)(Bet365)
(B) JD Gaming +143 vs DAMWON Gaming -175
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -112 / -4.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
I mentioned in my article for the first match between these two that it’s basically a coin flip and that “I wouldn’t be surprised if blue side won both matchups.” If you’re bullish on DAMWON being a cut above JDG then I think you just pass this game due to side and JDG being really damn good. The number the first time around was better for DAMWON. If you think these teams are even or JDG are better than this is an obvious JDG bet. If you’re like me and think DAMWON are better but that it’s very close (like a 52/48 situation) then just take the underdogs here. JDG get blue side in a matchup that will depend a lot on the jungle picks and they’ll get the first stab at it and get to leverage their position in the draft to get the best option or a power pick for Yagao. We’re getting even more value on JDG this time around.
Over towers, over drakes feels like a great bet and I’d expect this to be a close match but typically matchups between elite teams can be very lopsided because they’re both so good at closing with a lead so typically whoever gets ahead shuts it down. I’ll be taking a position on the towers only because the number is very large plus money relative to these moneylines.
Moneyline: JDG +143 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers destroyed @ +162 (1 unit)
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)