Wednesday, July 1st Recap
Dominus vs Invictus (Net: -0.5 units)
There was a really wild fight around the first herald spawn but in top lane that was like an inverse “everyone in the pool” bottom lane fights we usually see with multiple teleports. It went heavily in Dominus’ favor and this game more or less snowballed out of control from there.
Game two and three were Invictus stomps.
We saw all three supports in this Invictus series which begs all sorts of questions about their motivation for this match but I must admit, it was nice seeing Baolan back on the rift again. I was beginning to be concerned that he might just be done/retired. If he’s making a return and can be even 75% of his previous form than this team could be a dark horse.
I’ve never seen three supports in three games by the same team that I can remember.
LGD vs Suning (Net: +3.83 units)
This was a competitive series but ultimately boiled down to LGD’s previous problems rearing their ugly heads. The reason I’ve been so bullish on LGD is that they aren’t a fundamentally sound team whatsoever they just have good players, get leads, and “slap you with their wallet” to borrow from the LCK broadcast. It’s easy to look good from ahead and takes some nuance to see the mistakes they were making.
In this case, Suning caught out Kramer shortly before a dragon fight, got his flash and cleanse. At this point, LGD had three dragons and were threatening soul to Suning’s one. LGD completely sold out to try to get the soul in a 50/50 smite fight, Angel made a magnificent play and Azir ulted multiple members including Kramer on Aphelios and instantly popped him because he didn’t have his flash/cleanse. From there Suning aced the fight, took the baron, and quickly ended the game just minutes later.
LGD aren’t thorough with their objective setup. They don’t do a great job clearing vision or respecting flanks. They show a very poor understanding for their opponents win conditions both from ahead and behind. Either they get enough of a gold lead early to mask these mistakes or they don’t. This means that they’re liable to lose any game more frequently than they ever should be no matter the opponent.
Suning played very well this series but make no mistake, we were betting against LGD and LGD were the ones that lost this series more than Suning won it.
LPL Total: +3.33 units
T1 vs DAMWON (Net: +1.7675 units)
What an outstanding series! There were a few big mistakes by each team but T1’s ended up costing them the game twice. This was an absolute slugfest. It’s as good an example as there is on why the map total over/under bets are extremely dangerous and why you need a damn good reason besides “it should be a good series” to bet it. T1 arguably could have won both of these games and lost 0-2. That happens more frequently than you’d think.
I don’t want to get bogged down with that point. This series was highly entertaining, 95%+ of it was full of great decision making, individual outplays, and very close fights between two teams exercising a lot of discpline. DAMWON especially were uncharacteristically dialed in and disciplined in this series which is sort of terrifying and reminds me of their previous worlds runs.
Great series.
Gen.G vs Sandbox (Net: +0.945 units)
Did people seriously forget how good Gen.G are? It seems that amidst the offseason shuffle and hype about free agents and the hot starts of DAMWON and Dynamics that Gen.G have fallen by the wayside a bit. This team is still incredibly good. Sandbox are incredibly not. I know they’ve had a tough schedule but this just in… there’s about seven really good teams in the LCK so….
Sandbox are on dumpster fire alert.
LCK Total: +2.7125 units
Daily Total Net: +6.0425 units
Really nice day for us with both dogs hitting. If Invictus outplayed that weird first big fight in game one like they usually do, we’d be looking at a near 10 unit day. You take the good ones when they come. Back to work!
LPL Summer 2020
Week 5 – Day 4
Rogue Warriors +128 (+1.5 maps @ -238, -1.5 @ +338) vs
OMG -164 (-1.5 maps @ +180)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -118 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -105 / -3.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5
Time Total: OTB
Starting Lineups:
RW – Holder, Haro, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
OMG – Curse, H4cker, Icon, Smlz, Cold
Trends:
RW are 0-5, 1-4 against the map spread as underdogs
RW are 4-7 against the kill spread as underdogs
Kill totals have gone over in 8 out of 11 games
OMG are 1-1, 1-1 against the map spread as favorites
OMG are 2-3 against the kill spread as favorites
Kill totals have gone over in 9 out of 14 OMG games
All season long I was pounding the table for RW are good “punch up” underdogs and after a handful of thrown games, I finally caved and was off of them. Of course they steal one from JDG immediately when I do that. OMG I’ve been bearish on the entire season.
This isn’t the worst two teams in the league but one of them is.
Rogue Warriors have a ridiculous -363 gold differential per minute. That eclipses the next worst two teams by more than 150. How bad is that you ask? Let’s take a look.
Gold per minute:
RW: 1611
Schalke 04 (LEC): 1556
Excel Esports (LEC): 1741
Dignitas (LCS): 1615
Gold Differential per minute:
RW: -363
Dominus: -155
Immortals (LCS): -367
Dignitas (LCS): -251
AXIZ (Japan, last place): -419
Rascal Jester (Japan, 2nd to last): -285
So yea… they’re bad. Rogue Warriors had a few games that they should have won and didn’t this season and were competitive for a single game at a time against some good teams like TOP but make no mistake, this team is bad. There are a few culprits. Star ADC ZWuji has been surprisingly bad this split on film and it’s not a “help I’m trapped in hell” type situation where he’s overplaying and making mistakes in that way. He’s simply been poor relative to our expectations. If you don’t believe me, go watch his film with jewelers loop. It’s always good to go back and examine players that we assume are good from time to time and I think I had been somewhat lulled into a false sense of security. ZWuji was good with promising upside. That hasn’t been the case this season.
So what happens when a bad team’s best player isn’t playing well…. you guessed it.
I never thought I’d be backing OMG laying money but here we are. OMG aren’t playing the game the way I’d like them to but at least their individual players haven’t been bad this season. OMG actually have better statistics than you’d think for a team that we talk so poorly about. They’re just below league average in most measurables and their economy numbers are just below league average as well. For as much as we as a handicapping community like to rag on OMG for their boring, “why can’t you just do things right,” underwhelming performances, they’re not a truly terrible team they’re just unexciting.
OMG should take care of business here. Do I think Rogue Warriors is actually as bad as their numbers? No. Most of the time teams with exceptionally bad numbers aren’t really that bad but I can’t help but think this team has lost the confidence and swagger that brought them some upsets last season. Even baking in some regression I still think we’re getting decent value on OMG here.
Totals:
cCKPG: 28.12
Time-projected: 28.74
Odds Weighted: 20.47
Underdog Win: 26.66
“G” Projected Total: 25.78 kills
Overs have hit in 9 out of 14 OMG games this season.
Overs have hit in 8 out of 11 RW games this season.
The number was 24.5 or 23.5 in all of the OMG situations
RW have gone over in games with a total of 26.5 4 out of 7 times
26.5 is a very high total and while the numbers suggest this will be a high scoring affair, I think about how OMG wins have gone and they’re frequently low-scoring, controlled games with long lane phases or split push scenarios with a few mistakes thrown in. OMG’s 16.5 composite KPW this season is below league average their deaths per win is surprisingly high at 10.0.
I’m going against my numbers and taking a half stake on the under. The more I think about how these games are going to play out, it becomes harder to justify taking an over of 26.5 especially when the under is hitting at a 55.73% clip this season.
RW game times: 30.38 / 35.88 / 29.83 (average / in wins / in losses)
OMG game times: 32.57 / 33.82 / 31.63 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 31.48 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.63 minutes
No markets posted. I’d lean to an over if they float a close to even 32:00 or a plus odds 33:00.
Other Markets:
First Blood: RW 54.55% / OMG 50%
First Tower: RW 23.52% / OMG 29.41%
First Dragon: RW 17.65% / OMG 47.06%
Dragons per game (total both teams): RW 4.77 / OMG 4.5 / 4.635 combined
A lean to the over time total suggests taking the over on drags taken but too much juice. OMG first dragon is worth a small play.
My Picks:
Moneyline: OMG -164 (1.64 units)
Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +180 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ -133 (0.665 units)
Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ -133 (0.665 units)
Team WE +115 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 @ +320) vs
JD Gaming -147 (-1.5 maps @ +215)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -112
Time Total: OTB
Starting Lineups:
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao
Trends:
Team WE are 3-1, 4-0 against the map spread as underdogs
JDG are 3-1, 2-2 against the map spread as favorites
I feel like I can’t stop talking about Team WE in some way shape or form this season. The long and short of it is this; Team WE are a good team but they aren’t this good. They have solid fundamentals and play good defense which is important when you’re playing protect the carry but they’re extremely linear and teams continue to just let them do their thing. We’ve seen it punished before just not consistently. Team WE have caught more punts than a kick returner that you’re not afraid of. I’m not faulting them for it. This team is good and I like them, they’re just being overvalued now.
JDG were a little off their game to start the season but have mostly played into form of late besides that weird loss to RW in their last match. JDG are still an elite team and one of the best in the LPL even if their record doesn’t show it. Their two losses are to RNG and TOP, no shame in that. They possess the players AND macro skills, something only a few teams in this league can claim.
This line has come down slightly from -185 for JDG on Sunday night when it opened which is to be expected. A lot of people are going to be on Team WE here after their victory against RNG the other day. There are plenty of ways to justify a WE wager in this spot, their ridiculous 94+% first dragon rate, leads in both first blood and first tower rate, and an impressive 51.6% of wards cleared (one of the highest numbers I’ve ever seen and a contributing factor to their stellar defense). All of these are great but I’ve got a bit of a different take on things.
Team WE are WELL BELOW league average in gold differential at 10, 15, and 20 and only slightly above average in gold differential per minute which makes sense given their scale and protect the carry focused strategy this season. What’s surprising is that their gold differential per minute after 20 is just about league average too. What does this all mean? Team WE have played a ton of Ornn who generates gold with his passive upgrading items, and a ton of a Aphelios who needs no introduction for late game damage output. They also only have a gold percent rating of 0.833% on the season compared to JDG’s 1.74%.
JDG have one of the better gold differentials per minute in the league (despite a 7-5 record), strong objective control (58% of dragons vs 54% for WE), veteran players that are much less prone to mistakes, superior individual players in every position on the map. The cherry on top? Teams are finally figuring out ways to beat WE before they get online as long as they can execute, and JDG should be able to. If not, teams have started banning Aphelios and making WE beat them with other picks.
I love JDG in this spot. At some point the chickens will come to roost for Team WE. Don’t get me wrong, I like the team, they’re just tremendously overvalued right now.
Totals:
cCKPG: 28.38
Time-projected: 28.96
Odds-Weighted: 22.97
Underdog Win: 27.19
“G” Projected Total: 26.77 kills
My numbers suggest a strong play on the over but given the anticipated game script of JDG going underneath of Team WE’s telegraphed scaling I’d lean to the under. In that scenario, 24.5 is fairly high. I’ll be going against my numbers again today and taking this under for a half stake.
WE game times: 34.59 / 30.9 / 38.34 (average / in wins / in losses)
JDG game times: 30.49 / 30.86 / 29.98 (average / in wins / in losses)
cAVG Game Time: 32.54 minutes
Odds Weighted: 32.93 minutes
No markets, I’d lean heavily toward the under especially because they’d probably float a 33:00 or 32:00. I think JDG can go underneath WE successfully and consistently.
Other markets:
First Blood: WE 40% / JDG 25%
First Tower: WE 52.94% / JDG 23.52%
First Dragon: WE 94.12% / JDG 41.18%
I was really hoping we’d get some juicy plus money first dragon to take a shot at with JDG here given that I think they’ll prioritize a tempo jungler for Kanavi to snowball this game out but we got a measly -110. I do, however, like the under total dragons at a nice +123. Again, given the anticipated game script.
My Picks:
Moneyline: JDG -147 (2.205 units)
Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +215 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons total @ +123 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons total @ +123 (0.5 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 2
I’ll be moving toward using more data as the LCK season progresses but the sample size is still fairly small for most of these teams and I will remain film-centric for the time being.
Afreeca Freecs -345 (-1.5 maps @ +104) vs
Hanwha Life Esports +250 (+1.5 maps @ -132, -1.5 @ +566)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111
Time Total: OTB
This is fairly simple. Afreeca have been playing excellent LOL and this is a great metagame for them. They’re also coming off of back-to-back matches against DragonX and T1, before that was the competitive Team Dynamics who we’ll get to later.
Hanwha have been entirely the Viper and Lehends show and that’s it. I’m not entirely sure what has happened to Lava but the young gun who looked so promising even last year has just been awful all season and the revolving door at top and jungle hasn’t brought any success either. This team has been tremendously disappointing and while I initially thought they would improve it’s looking like a lost season already for the boys in brown and orange.
This could end up being a “circle the wagons” type game for Hanwha Life. If they don’t show some signs of life in this series I could see this season slipping away and maybe even seeing Viper and Lehends somewhat quit on this team like the Jaguars defense a few years ago or like Kiin on Afreeca last season. It could also be a “let down” spot for Afreeca coming off of a difficult three matches and finally catching an easy one but given that they’ve had a few days off I doubt that will be the case here.
Stylistically this is a huge mismatch too. Viper and Lehends getting next to no help from the rest of the map against a stud top laner in Kiin who would love nothing more than to 1v1 all day and both Afreeca mid laners playing roaming champions to camp bottom lane is going to make things difficult.
If you like the let down + must win narrative I could understand backing Hanwha but I think this team is on the fast track for the dumpster fire tier with APK/SeolHaeOne. Give me Afreeca.
My Picks:
Moneyline: Afreeca -345 (1.725 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +104 (0.5 units)
DragonX -500 (-1.5 maps @ -123) vs
Team Dynamics +348 (+1.5 maps @ -103, -1.5 @ +758)
Kill Total: 20.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -118 / +6.5 @ -111
Time Total: OTB
Team Dynamics have really impressed me this season. They’re doing everything right. Unfortunately, DragonX are just ridiculously good. The Dynamics backers are shouting from the hilltops about DragonX’s tendency to drop games all the time but to me this is much simpler. This number is just too big. I think DragonX are one of the best teams in the world but this number is way too big against a team that’s shown to be playoff caliber already and that will likely improve.
Give me a kids meal underdog special. I still think DragonX win this series but it’s tough not to get a taste of this number with a good Dynamics team.
My Picks:
Spread: Dynamics +1.5 maps @ -103 (0.515 units)
Moneyline: Dynamics +348 (0.25 units)
Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +758 (0.1 units)
LOOKING AHEAD
There are a few spots I absolutely love already looking ahead in the week that I’m jumping on now. I’ll be writing on these anyway later in the week but figured I’d share here so you can hop aboard with me before lines move.
eStar vs Vici
Moneyline: eStar -132 (1.32 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +231 (0.5 units)
EDG vs Rogue Warriors
Moneyline: EDG -435 (4.35 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -111 (0.555 units)
eStar vs Victory Five
Spread: eStar +1.5 maps @ -222 (2.22 units)
Moneyline: eStar +153 (0.5 units)
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ +372 (0.25 units)
KT Rolster vs SeolHaeOne
Moneyline: KT Rolster -182 (3.64 units)
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +165 (1 unit)
DAMWON vs Hanwha Life
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -156 (1.56 units)
Dynamics vs SANDBOX
Moneyline: Dynamics -256 (2.56 units)
Spread: Dynamics -1.5 maps @ +122 (0.75 units)
